HBP: Why I am 98.6% certain that...

[Jim Ferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 133029

Karen:"Then the treachery of Snape in chapter 2, I sat there thinking
"I can't believe this is being revealed in the 2nd chapter! From that
moment on I changed my opinion. I had always believed him to be on the
side of Dumbledore, but I read this whole book believing him to be
ESE. By the end where he killed him I was sobbing and ended the book
absolutely hating him."

"After I'd calmed down a bit though I wondered. Does this really prove
that he's ESE? We saw DD insist that Harry carry out DD's orders no
matter what. (see 1) When DD said "Severus
please
" I took this to be
pleading for his life, but was he in fact pleading with him to kill
him so as to not blow his cover?"

This and all the "Snape is actually good" theories depend on a great
many things being predictable and known, actually far more than is
credible. In order for this to have been a plan, then

** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco had been taken into the
Death Eaters and given the task of killing Dumbledore.
** Snape had to know that Narcissa would come see him and ask him to
swear the Unbreakable Vow to help Draco kill Dumbledore.  He further
had to know how that would fit into future events.
** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco wouldn't have the nerve
to go through with it himself, that he wouldn't just bust a magical
cap in Dumbledore the first time he had his back turned.
** Snape and Dumbledore should have figured out a way to keep Harry
from killing Snape the first time he lays eyes on him after this plan
worked out.

Harry will never believe anything about Snape again – Harry will try
to kill Snape the first chance he gets. If Snape came to Harry and
tried everything he could to persuade Harry, it would do no good.
Snape couldn't convince any of the Order, either. It's hard to figure
out how Snape can be any good to the Order or Harry after this.

I believe Dumbledore did not seek death, but he didn't shy away from
it, either.  He knew the torch was about to be passed from him to
Harry, and was determined to ensure Harry survived.

No plan survives contact with the enemy. Dumbledore understood this,
and I don't think he tried to play puppetmaster to this degree.  The
puppets don't cooperate. He did prepare and ensured his ultimate
weapon survived.

Jim Ferer