[HPforGrownups] Re: HBP: Why I am 98.6% certain that...

[Hank Alme]

No: HPFGUIDX 133071

Here we delve into what I think will be the big area of speculation
for the next X years while we await the arrival of Book VII: Harry
Potter and the Something-or-otherish Whatsit.

Snape is clearly a creep in a lot of small ways, but is he an evil
creep and servant to LV, or is he a good creep who's end goal is the
defeat of the death cult. Only JKR knows for sure, if anyone does.

It's fun to speculate, anyway, so on to Jim's post:

On 7/19/05, Jim Ferer <jferer at yahoo.com> wrote:

<snip>

> 
> This and all the "Snape is actually good" theories depend on a great
> many things being predictable and known, actually far more than is
> credible. In order for this to have been a plan, then
> 

I think that these objections can be answered

> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco had been taken into the
> Death Eaters and given the task of killing Dumbledore.

Dumbledore says as much when he is talking Draco out of becoming
something as odious as a murderer. *He* clearly knows of Draco's task,
and the consequences to the Malfoys of his failing. If we are to
assume that DD is truly trusting of Snape, then it would be certain
that he would have filled Snape in on Draco's problem as well.

> ** Snape had to know that Narcissa would come see him and ask him to
> swear the Unbreakable Vow to help Draco kill Dumbledore.  He further
> had to know how that would fit into future events.

This is not necessarily so. When he makes the Unbreakable Vow, we do
not know if Snape does indeed know -- as he claims -- LV's plan or
Draco's task. He promises to look over Draco and to assist him in his
task, whatever that may be. This is -- a not-ESE Snape would feel --
forced by the doubting Bella. He must do this to avoid blowing his
cover.

This also would explain the topic of the argument witnessed between DD
and Snape. Snape tells DD what he has done, and DD lets on what
Draco's task is. Snape is horrified, and wants to refuse any part of
it. DD lays down the law with Sanpe, just as he will later do with
Harry. DD seems to realize, unlike many of the others, that *Harry*,
not DD, is the one to do in LV. What it takes to facilitate that --
including sacrificing himself -- it takes.

> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco wouldn't have the nerve
> to go through with it himself, that he wouldn't just bust a magical
> cap in Dumbledore the first time he had his back turned.

I would think this is true, but not much of a stretch at all. DD has
shown himself to be a shrewd judge of character, able to see deep
inside others' heads. He has had five years to asses Malfoy the
younger, and arrive at the conclusions he expresses on the tower.

DD is also quite aware of the powers of Draco compared to his own.
There is little reason to think that a non-fatally weakened DD would
fear anything from Draco.

> ** Snape and Dumbledore should have figured out a way to keep Harry
> from killing Snape the first time he lays eyes on him after this plan
> worked out.
> 

Given that Harry had a pretty good go at Snape directly after the
events on the tower, and was parried without much effort, they seem to
have succeeded. Besides, Harry killing Snape to defend himself or DD
would be self-defense, while killing Snape as he tried to flee
Hogwarts would be a summary execution (AKA a vengeful murder). Harry
is a hothead, but no murderer. Snape and DD surely know this.

> Harry will never believe anything about Snape again – Harry will try
> to kill Snape the first chance he gets. If Snape came to Harry and
> tried everything he could to persuade Harry, it would do no good.
> Snape couldn't convince any of the Order, either. It's hard to figure
> out how Snape can be any good to the Order or Harry after this.
> 

Off the top of my head, I can think of two roles Snape could have in
the future. First, he can be a positive influence inside the DE's
towards Harry's safety and skills. This comes from s straightforward
reading of the events on the Hogwarts grounds post-DD. As they duel,
Snape taunts Harry, but also points out the failings in his technique.
When another DE has the drop on Harry, Snape calls them off with his
story about Harry being only for LV. There is no reason to think of
this as anything but an invention of Snape's.

The second role could be as an agent within the DE. There could be
something Snape will be able to do that requires him to be in the
closest circles of the DE cult. He now has the chops to be as close as
anyone to LV. This would enable him to to something that may turn out
to be critical to Harry's success: a theft or bit of sabotage.



> I believe Dumbledore did not seek death, but he didn't shy away from
> it, either.  He knew the torch was about to be passed from him to
> Harry, and was determined to ensure Harry survived.
> 

While I disagree with Jim on ESE Snape, I agree with this. DD shows an
understanding of Harry Potter as the chosen one that I do not see in
the others. He knows that if LV is to be defeated, Harry will do it,
and not as a tool in a DD-concocted scheme. DD has helped Harry by
training and other acts of mentoring, but that is probably the extent
of his plan. Thanks to DD, Harry (presumably) has the skills and
knowledge he needs to be victorious in the end. This done, DD steps
aside.

DD perhaps did not seek death, but he surely did not fear it. I have
no reason to belive that his plan had an entry "and here, I shall
die", but I can certainly believe that he would decide that he would
die if that helped set Harry up to succeed. Good Snape would be
reluctant to participate in this, but would comply. Again, it would
not require that they plan for Snape to kill DD, only that they agree
that *if* such a situation comes up -- as it did -- that Snape do what
must be done for the larger goal of ending LV.

Cheers,

Hank Alme