Dumbledore the Strategist (Re: Has anyone thought that Dumbledore knows...)

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 130516

>>Michael (mggoulden):
>Dumbledore is my favourite character in the books...... his 
positively ludicrous decision to entrust an innocent man's fate to 
two 13 year-old wizards, and something is decidedly fishy.<
<snip>

>>Eileen: 
>I thought myself that if DD wanted to save Sirius, he'd have found a 
more reliable way to do it than entrusting it to two kids with a time 
turner...<
<snip>

Betsy Hp:
Except, one of those two kids has been using a time turner (with 
Ministry approval) for the entire school year.  Hermione, at this 
point, probably has more experience in time turner use than most 
adult witches or wizards.

Plus, Dumbledore has very little people he can trust at this point in 
PoA.  Lupin is off in the Forbidden Forest, baying at the moon,  
Hagrid is off drinking somewhere, and Snape is at the very end of his 
tether and likely to do nothing to help Sirius even if under direct 
orders.  Dumbledore himself can do nothing or he will be under 
immediate suspicion. For Sirius to be rescued he *had* to act 
quickly.  Harry and Hermione were his only options, IMO.

Also, as far as Harry's adventures go, his travel back in time was 
fairly benign.  I don't recall a moment when either he or Hermione 
were in any kind of danger (note, I'm talking about the time 
travelling pair here).  And Hermione had enough knowledge and 
responsibility (something I'm sure Dumbledore was aware of) to keep 
Harry from breaking the time traveler's code and seriously mucking up 
the time line.
 
>>Eileen:  
>Since he had already seen that Buckbeak had vanished in a very short 
space of time, he would have been aware that a time turner might be 
in use by someone who was motivated to rescue Buckbeak.<

Betsy Hp:
Exactly!  And who has been running around with a time turner all 
year? And really, once you've got a flying hippogriff on your side, 
staging a jail break from a tower room becomes, well, child's play.

>>Eileen:
>After he has spoken to Snape, (when Sirius is imprisoned in the 
castle and the kids are in the hospital wing) he knows that the 
dementors attacked Harry and Hermione (they also attacked Sirius but 
I don't think this is a major concern for DD) and that something 
drove them off. DD realises that the time turner is needed to drive 
away the dementors from Harry and Hermione, and that Harry with 
his 'saving people thing' can be relied on to do it while saving 
Sirius. Harry and Hermione, then, are the 'more than one innocent 
life' that DD intends to be saved.<

Betsy Hp:
I don't know if Dumbledore knew absolutely that time-turner!Harry had 
driven off the dementors.  No one saw what had happened.  However, he 
did know Harry had been taking Patronus lessons, so I imagine 
Dumbledore made an educated guess.  Which would serve two purposes: 
a) it would reinforce the suggestion that a time turner had been in 
play; b) it would certainly suggest that if Harry *didn't* go back in 
time, he and Sirius would die.  So I agree that Harry and Hermione 
were among the innocent lives saved.

I do take issue with the idea that Dumbledore cared little if Sirius 
lived or died.  Dumbledore, while a very clever and stratigic 
thinker, has always struck me as someone with a heart.  I believe he 
was horrified to realize that Sirius had been innocent this entire 
time, especially since his testimony helped send Sirius away.  And so 
I think the rescue of Sirius was definitely an important part of 
Dumbledore's goal when he sent Harry and Hermione off on their 
adventure. 

>>Michael:
>I believe that in PS Dumbledore knew that Professor Quirrel was 
under the control of Voldemort. As such, he had the Philosopher's 
Stone placed in the school to tempt Voldemort out of hiding. Now, I'm 
sure the Headmaster didn't know Voldemort was under the turban, but 
he did know that he was around somewhere. His trick with the Mirror 
of Erised at the end was a masterstroke, possibly designed to keep 
Voldemort/Quirrel stumped so that he could confront them. 
Unfortunately, Harry got involved.<

>>Eileen:
>I think you're right, but that it was no accident that Harry got 
involved. The Mirror of Erised trick had to have someone with Harry's 
motivation involved in order to bring Voldemort out in the open - 
without him, you would have had Quirrell, the mirror, and stalemate.<

Betsy Hp:
But, wouldn't Dumbledore have *wanted* a stalemate?  Honestly, I 
can't think of a worst case scenario than a highly gifted and 
intelligent Death Eater with his hands on both the Stone and Harry.  
It'd be like Christmas for Voldemort.  However, a stumped Death Eater 
caught in front of a mirror that would never yield its prize sounds 
like a perfect trap to me.

I agree with Michael that Harry's presence very nearly screwed the 
entire plan.  Where I disagree with Michael is how quickly Quirrell 
was suspected.  I think *Death Eater* activity was suspected (hence 
having Hagrid fetch the Stone to Hogwarts), but I think Dumbledore 
didn't realize it was Quirrell until Snape cottoned on to him after 
the troll incident.  Since Quirrell was so young (and presumably not 
a Death Eater before his world tour) I'm sure they (Snape and 
Dumbledore) suspected an older more powerful Death Eater working 
behind him.  I think the obstacles  and the mirror were a very 
cleverly set up trap, and Harry was *never* supposed to be involved.
 
>>Michael: 
>In OotP, the Headmaster utilised the same trick that he did in PS - 
he explicitly tempted Voldemort with an object the latter was 
desperate to obtain, i.e, the Prophecy.
<snip>
>In light of this, I have to ask myself, would Dumbledore do things 
differently if he could go back and change things? And even though 
he's my favourite character, I have to say that, given the choice, 
Dumbledore probably wouldn't change a thing.<
  
>>Eileen: 
>I quite agree that he wouldn't want to change a thing; Voledemort 
out in the open exactly as planned, and Sirius'life sacrificed for 
Harry as a bonus. He might have some difficult explaining to do, but 
for him that would be a small price to pay.<

Betsy Hp:
Again, I agree with the Prophecy being bait in a trap, just like the 
Stone in PS/SS.  However I do disagree with the thought of Dumbledore 
being so cold blooded.  Yes, the losses the Order endured were small; 
Sirius was their weakest member.  But I think Dumbledore highly 
regrets his loss.  Especially since he'd been so recently returned to 
them.  And though Sirius was a weak member of the Order, I don't 
think he was an actual liability.  Honestly, the amount of Order 
members seem small enough that I imagine Dumbledore has uses for 
every member he can find.

Betsy Hp