Dumbledore the Strategist / Dumbledore Knows...

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 130700

>>Betsy  Hp:
>snip<
>Dumbledore himself can do  nothing or he will be under immediate 
suspicion.<
<snip>
 
>>Eileen: 
>I just thought that since he had  Sirius with him in the castle, he 
could have done something very simple, such as  hiding him somewhere 
or sending him off somewhere by magical means, and  just leaving 
the 'prison' door open.<
<snip>

Betsy Hp:
There's an assumption that Dumbledore's freeing of Sirius would go 
unnoticed and unremarked, and I think that's a dangerous assumption 
to make. (One Dumbledore would hesitate to rely on!)  For one, 
Hogwarts is crawling with ghosts of varying degrees of loyalty, I'm 
sure.  For another, there are portraits everywhere, and while I do 
think the headmaster portraits are under certain obligations of 
secrecy, I doubt the rest of the portraits are.  (Hogwarts secrets 
have a tendency to get out, and I'm of the opinion that the 
portraits are prime suspects.)  Plus, Sirius Black had attacked and 
terrified a portrait (the Fat Lady) so I doubt the portraits would 
be all that thrilled to assist in his escape, even by just keeping 
mum.

>>Eileen:
>Why would Dumbledore be  immediately under suspicion? He provided 
(at least some of) the evidence that  sent Sirius to Azkaban in the 
first place (and -  guessing here - I imagine he  tipped Fudge off 
about Sirius' whereabouts after Godric's Hollow). The only  one who 
might give him away is Snape, and although Snape is really mad at  
him, I'm sure Dumbledore knows he wouldn't do so.<

Betsy Hp:
I agree that Snape wouldn't snitch.  He doesn't, after all, when 
Dumbldore drops the hint at how the escape was accomplished 
(the "two places at once" comment).  But if it was obvious that it 
was an inside job (an unlocked door, for example) than the 
headmaster of the school could well be questioned.

Another thought I've had is that the dementors may have been able to 
follow Sirius.  They came after him when he was in dog form, so his 
disguise is no longer of use.  And they managed to figure out he was 
by the lake.  They probably use a sort of spiritual or psychic 
sniffing out, rather than an actual scent, but Sirius flying away on 
Buckbeak may well have killed any chance of the dementors following 
after him.  Dumbledore would obviously know if this was the case, 
that flight was the best way to escape, so he may have realized that 
Buckbeak was Sirius' only chance.

>>Betsy  Hp:
>snip<
I agree with Michael that Harry's presence very nearly  screwed the 
entire plan.
<snip>
>I think the obstacles and the mirror were a  very cleverly set up 
trap, and Harry was *never* supposed to be involved.< 

>>Eileen: 
>He would have been confident of catching Quirrell in the trap...but 
he didn't need to, did he, as he already knew Quirrell was 
involved.  Presumably he was out to catch the older more powerful 
Death Eater as well, and there was always the chance that this might 
turn out to be Voldemort...how  did he think he might achieve this?<

Betsy Hp:
By setting up a difficult enough labyrinth that Quirrell turned to 
his Death Eater sponser for help, but making it beatable enough that 
the two thought it worth entering the trap.  The genius of the 
obstacles, IMO, was the very different skill types needed to 
complete each task.  Hermione even comments on the logic puzzle 
being able to stump (or *trap*) many powerful wizards. 

"This isn't magic -- it's logic -- a puzzle.  A lot of the greatest 
wizards haven't got an ounce of logic, they'd be stuck in here 
forever."  (SS scholastic paperback p.285)

Quirrell, as an involved professor, may well have had some hints of 
what skills were required and so realized that he couldn't surmount 
them himself. (He's young enough, I think, to have been a recent 
Hogwarts' graduate, so I think Dumbledore would be quite aware of 
Quirrell's skills.)
 
>>Eileen: 
<snip of H/R/H's skills that allowed them to beat the labyrinth> 
>I think there are  some reasonable grounds here for considering 
that Dumbledore might have thought the three friends would get  
involved.<

Betsy Hp:
Except they very nearly died, several times.  The Devil's Snare came 
very close to strangling Ron and Harry to death.  And even though 
Hermione knew what it was, she completely lost her head on how to 
defeat it.  Honestly, if Dumbledore had expected the three to face 
the Devil's Snare wouldn't he have encouraged Professor Sprout to 
give a fairly intense class on what to do if caught by the plant?  
Hermione only recognized what it was and what it liked.  Harry made 
an educated guess that fire would repel it, but I didn't get the 
impression that this was taught to them at all.

And Ron is good at chess, yes.  But he was hit so hard in the head 
he was actually knocked out.  He could well have died.  And that's 
with playing the game properly.

Plus, after facing Quirrell, Harry was unconscious for *three 
days*.  That's a long time for a kid to be out.  Dumbledore tells 
Harry that "the effort involved nearly killed you.  For one terrible 
moment there, I was afraid it had." (ibid p.297)  And even Hermione 
mentions, "Dumbledore was so worried --" (ibid p.301) while Harry 
was in his little coma.

If the labyrinth had been set up for Harry and friends to go 
through, I imagine it would have been made a little more kid-
friendly.

Finally, what on Earth does Dumbledore gain by sending Harry through 
the labyrinth?  Why would Dumbledore, who does everything in his 
power to prevent Voldemort from getting his hands on Harry in every 
other book, set up a cozy little tete-a-tete between Voldemort and 
an eleven year old Harry?  The mirror keeps Voldemort (or, IMO, the 
suspected powerful Death Eater) occupied until Dumbledore and gang 
can arrive to sweep him up.  But once Harry releases the Stone, all 
bets are off.  All the powerful Death Eater needs to do is overpower 
an eleven year old wizard and run.  (Actually, Harry was lucky he 
met up with Voldemort -- he's the only wizard affected by that "no 
touching" protection Harry had.)  And why, if Dumbledore is 
expecting Harry to go traipsing into the trap, would he leave the 
school with only a week or so left of term?  If Dumbledore had been 
a second later Harry could well have died.  (Dumbledore, as shown 
above, was actually afraid that he *was* too late.)  It seems like a 
massive risk with no clear gain, IMO.    
  
>>Betsy Hp:
<snip>
>However I do disagree with the thought of  Dumbledore being so cold 
blooded.<
<snip>

>>Eileen: 
>I guess I'm just thinking back to the way it used to be - Voldemort 
in power and seemingly unstoppable. Order members being picked off 
one by one. Dumbledore needing to find a weak link in Voldemort's 
armour. And he finds one - the prophecy. Perfect! If it hadn't 
existed, he'd have needed to invent  it. And it gave him the 
opportunity to introduce a flaw into Voldemort's  game plan, the 
fear and uncertainty of what Harry might do or become. And  to 
achieve this, Dumbledore was prepared to put Harry through living 
with the  Dursleys - and that seems to me to be rather cold-blooded.<
<snip>

Betsy Hp:
So you're suggesting that Dumbledore actually *planned* on the 
Potters being killed?  What do you base that on?  It seems to me 
that Dumbledore did everything in his power to hide the Longbottoms 
and the Potters away.  I also think that Dumbledore had no idea he 
was about to hear a prophecy nor did he think there was going to be 
a spy of Voldemort's lurking about to hear his job interview with 
someone he'd been planning to turn away.

Yes, it was unfortunate that Harry's only blood relatives were so 
icky.  But when Harry's life is put in the balance, I think the 
treatment at the Dursleys was worth keeping Harry alive. (I know 
there are *plenty* who disagree. <g>)

Often times, especially in war, the practical solution seems 
incredibly cold-blooded.  However, it doesn't necessarily follow 
that the decision maker *is* cold-blooded.  (Think Churchill or 
Truman during WWII.)

>>Eileen:
>And I don't  think having Sirius as Harry's guardian would have 
suited Dumbledore at all,  either after Godric's Hollow or after 
Azkaban.<
<snip>

Betsy Hp:
Certainly not after Godric's Hollow.  Sirius' didn't have the power 
to keep Harry safe like Petunia Dursley could.  However, Sirius does 
give Harry over to Hagrid, so it seems like he was willing to go 
along with Dumbledore's advice.

Once Sirius was free of Azkaban he *was* Harry's guardian and I 
don't recall seeing any evidence that he interfered with 
Dumbledore's guardianship of Harry.  If anything, Sirius seemed to 
be a big supporter of Dumbledore.  So I'm not sure how Sirius acted 
as a fly in the ointment.  And if Dumbledore really had wanted to 
get rid of Sirius all he'd have to do was send Sirius out on some 
dangerous mission somewhere.  Sirius' was certainly game, and he had 
plenty of dangerous enemies.

>>Chris (in post # 130691):
I think DD knows this is the most reliable way because somehow he
can see the future.<
<snip>
>There is a lot more going on with DD than we all can possibly
imagine. It is my guess that he even knows the outcome of this war.
I think he may even know which one will die, Harry, LV, or both.<

Betsy Hp:
This is my absolute *least* favorite way of viewing Dumbledore.   I 
hate, "Dumbledore the Omniscient".  Because it takes away all of the 
coolness that is Dumbledore to my mind.  I love the idea (and I 
think there's the most evidence for it, IMO) that Dumbledore is a 
keen observer in the same vein as Ms. Marple or Hercule Poirot of 
Agatha Christie fame.  Honestly, how often are criminals simply 
amazed at what Poirot or Marple picked up simply by observing?  
Perhaps Dumbledore spotted Harry and Hermione hiding while he and 
Fudge and all walked down to Hagrid's hut.  Perhaps he caught a 
glimpse of Harry and Buckbeak through the window while Harry was 
convincing Buckbeak to follow him.  There's *tons* of explanations 
that don't rely on strange and mysterious powers.

We *know* that Dumbledore is quick on his feet.  We saw that in 
chpt. 27 in OotP when we knew that Dumbledore had been caught by 
surprise with evidence that Harry had been running an illegal school 
club.  If Dumbledore was seriously a time traveler that already 
expected Umbridge's charge...  it takes away the entire tension of 
that scene.  And really, I don't think there's *anything* in the 
books that suggests Dumbledore has that particular power.  If 
anything, the end of OotP showed us how very *human* Dumbledore is.  
Quite capable of making mistakes, and quite capable of heartily 
regretting them.

Betsy Hp