Lupin is Ever So Evil, Part Two--Replies

[Nathaniel]

No: HPFGUIDX 130781

> Pippin:
> 
> Sirius didn't tell us his reasoning, but we know he 
> assumed that only he, James, Peter and Lily knew about the 
> switch, and that Lupin didn't. In that case, only Peter 
> could have told Voldemort about the switch, ergo Peter 
> was the spy.  But Sirius could have been wrong.
> 
> The idea that Sirius only vaguely suspected Lupin loses
> credibility once we find out in OOP that there were
> others close to Lily and James. Presumably anyone
> in Moody's photo, barring the deceased, could have
> been the spy. There had to be some reason that Sirius
> specifically thought it was Lupin. 
> 

Nathaniel:

I disagree on both counts.  Second objection first.  Being in the 
the original Order of the Phoenix hardly constitutes being close to 
the Potters.  Acquainted with, yes.  Close to, no.  The whole reason 
that Dumbledore tried to dissuade the Potters from choosing Sirius 
as their Secret Keeper is that someone close to them had been 
passing information about the Potters movements.  If it had been any 
one in the Order of the Phoenix, then their knowledge would not be 
specific to the Potters, but would pertain rather to all Phoenix 
members.  

Now if Sirius deeply, firmly believed that Lupin was the Spy, then 
his first thought would have been, "How did Lupin know about the 
switch?  How did he get the information out of Peter?"  

We know that a Secret Keeper does not need to directly convey the 
information to the recipient.  Their writing will suffice, as that 
is how Dumbledore conveyed the location of 12 Grimmauld Place to 
Harry.  Perhaps, other second hand means would be sufficient as 
well.  (Pensieve, or wizarding photograph taken by the Secret Keeper 
of the location perhaps?)  So if Sirius truely, firmly believed that 
Lupin was the spy, Peter could have simply been careless and 
accidently conveyed the information to Lupin. Sirius might ask, "How 
could Peter have been so careless as to leave their location written 
down?" Or "How could he have been so weak as to give the information 
over to Lupin?"

Instead, Sirius quickly drops his passing notion that Lupin might be 
the spy and reassigns his suspicions to Peter.  He chases Peter down 
and his already in accuasation mode.  He does not ask Peter how 
Lupin got the information out out of him.  He once again 
underestimated Peter (as everyone seems to do . . .) and Peter gets 
the drop on him, blowing up the street and seemingly himself.
-Nathaniel (Natti)