Fudge, Harry's Expulsion, and the Prophecy

[jlv230]

No: HPFGUIDX 130805

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, Juli <jlnbtr at y...> wrote:
> Angie wrote (edited):
> 
> If Fudge is not in cahoots with Voldemort, but knows
> about the Prophecy and believes Harry is the  one with
> the power to defeat Voldemort, then why on earth would
> he be  so keen to expel Harry from Howgarts and take
> away his wand?  How could Harry defeat Voldemort if he
> has no wand and doesn't continue to learn  magic? 
> Fudge can't be that incompetent, can he?
> 
> Juli replies: I think the reason is that Fudge DOES
> NOT believe LV is back, therefore Harry isn't in any
> danger. Now that he knows LV is back, I bet he's going
> to start being really nice to Harry, cause he probably
> knows DD and HP are the only hope the WW has.
> 
> Juli

Precisely, Juli. Fudge thought that the terms of the prophecy had 
*already* been fulfilled when Harry was one year old. As far as Fudge 
was concerned, Voldemort was dead and could not return, *ever*. This 
smacks of a lack of thought about all the stuff about marking as 
equal etc, but as prophecies are generally vague, it is not 
unforgivable. Why think that a 'dead' man has come back to life? 
This, you'll note, is a mistake Fudge makes *twice*.

The MfM only started getting annoyed with Harry and Dumbledore when 
they started saying that Sirius Black was innocent and Voldemort was 
not dead and was on his way back to power with the help of Peter 
Pettigrew. At the start of PoA he was nice as pie to Harry and stops 
him getting punished for the Aunt Marge debacle.

As for him being nice to Harry again now the truth is out, this is 
possible (there may be some bitterness though), but his attitude 
won't make a lot of difference as, IIRC, he will be replaced by a new 
Minister for Magic in this book *because* he repeatedly ignored Harry 
and Dumbledore's warnings about the return of the Dark Lord. I would 
think that a vote of no confidence is on the cards. The trust of the 
wizarding world is lost.

As for his reasons for ignoring the truth... I think it is because it 
was easier and less frightening to believe LV to be dead rather than 
plan a war and face the possibility of losing. It is also easier to 
be convinced you are right than accept you may have made a mistake. 
(And I really hope I haven't!).

JMO,
JLV xx