What LV did with his advantage (was Re: Choose right over what is easy)

[Eustace_Scrubb]

No: HPFGUIDX 128794

Gerry wrote:
> Fudge choose easy over right. He did not want to believe LV was
back,
> he tried everything he could to stop the voices that told the truth.
> Why? Because that would mean preparing for war, the end of the cosy
> life he had now. So he opted for discrediting Harry and Dubledore,
and
> for making sure his pet Umbridge culled Hogwarts from all possible
> subservities. The results:
> LV had almost a year to prepare his come-back whereas the MoM has
lost
> a year.
> LV got a number of his most important supporters back
> All students who are not in the DA (and especially the 7th years who
> graduated) have gaps in their abilities to defend themselves against
> the DE's. 

Eustace_Scrubb:
Absolutely right on Fudge's folly.  And the results could have been
quite disastrous.  However, on balance, has LV's apparent
single-minded focus on the Prophecy a mistake that has evaporated the
advantage that Fudge handed him?  I wonder.

Comparing the names of the dozen Death Eaters involved in the Ministry
fight with the ten who escaped from Azkaban gives some idea of how
many known followers LV still has at his disposal.  Only three of the
ten escapees are named in the text:  Bellatrix, Dolohov and Rookwood.
  However, we can add Rodolphus and Rabastan Lestrange to the list, as
we know from GoF that they were imprisoned in Azkaban and from OoP
that they were free by the Minstry battle. We can add Mulciber to the
list as Crouch Sr. tells Karkaroff in the GoF pensieve scene that the
Ministry already had Mulciber and again he was at the OoP Ministry
battle.  That leaves 4 escapees unidentified

We know the names of all 12 DEs in the Ministry battle (this assumes
that when Harry saw the "dozen lit wand tips" appear in the DoM that
this meant there were in fact a dozen DEs, no more and no less): 
Malfoy, Bellatrix, Nott, Jugson, Rodolphus [Lestrange], Rabastan
[Lestrange], MacNair, Avery, Rookwood, Mulciber, Crabbe Sr., Dolohov.

Of these we know that Malfoy, Nott, MacNair, Avery, and Crabbe Sr. are
not among the Azkaban escapees as they were at large and able to
apparate to the graveyard in GoF.  Jugson, if I am not mistaken, is
the only DE at the Ministry battle who can't definitely be identified
as an escapee or a non-escapee.  

So there are either 4 or 5 of the escapees still at large (the 3 or 4
who are nameless, plus Bellatrix who LV dragged away with him).  Of
the DEs who went to the graveyard in GoF, only Goyle Sr. remains
unaccounted for.  And of course there's dear old Wormtail, from whom
we've not heard since the end of GoF.

Of course we don't yet know what will become of the DEs captured at
the Ministry, though Draco may be right that they'll be out soon with
no Dementors to feed off them.  But for right now, what does LV have
to show for his year's headstart?  No prophecy, 11 of his followers
detained, the intensely-loyal-if-unstable Bellatrix on his hands
(along with the diffident Wormtail) and 3 or 4 unnamed followers.  The
only contact we know of on the outside would be Goyle Sr., who may not
be too reliable if his son takes after him and who is probably under
suspicion anyway at this point.

The element of surprise is gone now.  

I'm not overly impressed with what LV has accomplished during Fudge's
year of denial.  _Unless_ Wormtail and the 3-4 other DE escapees have
been working on another plan of which Harry and the reader knows
nothing as yet.  And unless having the Dementors on LV's side is
enough by itself to give him the advantage over the Ministry and the
Order.

We'll just have to see...

Cheers,

Eustace_Scrubb