What LV did with his advantage (was Re: Choose right over what is easy)

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 128825

>>Eustace_Scrubb:
>Absolutely right on Fudge's folly.  And the results could have been 
quite disastrous.  However, on balance, has LV's apparent single-
minded focus on the Prophecy a mistake that has evaporated the 
advantage that Fudge handed him?  I wonder.<

<snip of excellent breakdown of DEs at the DoM>

>Of course we don't yet know what will become of the DEs captured at 
the Ministry, though Draco may be right that they'll be out soon 
with no Dementors to feed off them.  But for right now, what does LV 
have to show for his year's headstart?  No prophecy, 11 of his 
followers detained, the intensely-loyal-if-unstable Bellatrix on his 
hands (along with the diffident Wormtail) and 3 or 4 unnamed 
followers.<
<snip>

Betsy:
But Voldemort has also gained the chaos the WW is now in, plus the 
fear that comes from realizing that his people got right into the 
heart of the DoM, probably one of the most protected places in the 
WW.  I agree that things didn't go as planned, and Voldemort would 
have much prefered to remain hidden in the dark.  But can you really 
blame him for concentrating on finding out the prophecy?  After all, 
it was his ignorance of the prophecy that led to his first defeat.  
And he has to wonder why his last couple of attempts to kill Harry 
have failed so miserably.  It would have been foolish of him to try 
and take down Dumbledore and Harry without knowing what's so darn 
special about the boy. 

>>Eustace_Scrubb:
>The element of surprise is gone now.  
>I'm not overly impressed with what LV has accomplished during 
Fudge's year of denial.<

Betsy:
Well yes, Voldemort cannot be happy with how things turned out in 
the end.  But for a full year he had the WW dancing to his tune.  
And he had Harry dancing as well.  That Harry would turn up at the 
DoM with a group of students, Voldemort could not have predicted - 
especially when we remember how insistent Harry was to go it alone 
(Voldemort seems to know Harry very well).  And Voldemort does not 
seem to realize that Snape is a spy.  As far as Voldemort knew, 
Harry was without adult allies at Hogwarts; the sudden appearance of 
the Order was also unpredictable.

>>Eustace_Scrubb:
>_Unless_ Wormtail and the 3-4 other DE escapees have been working 
on another plan of which Harry and the reader knows nothing as yet. 
And unless having the Dementors on LV's side is enough by itself to 
give him the advantage over the Ministry and the Order.
>We'll just have to see...<

Betsy:
Of course we could say *anything* about what the extra Death Eaters 
have been up to.  The jury will have to remain out on that one.  I 
would point out that we *do* know Voldemort was actively and 
successfully recruiting the Giants, so there was at least *some* 
multi-tasking going on.  And at the very least, having the Dementors 
on his side means that Azkaban could potentially have a revolving 
door when it comes to captured Death Eaters, so the only downside to 
the DoM roundup is the exposure (not an inconsiderable downside, I 
grant you).

Things are not going Voldemort's way, it's true (this is a 
children's series after all - the bad guy is very unlikely to win).  
But I don't think it's because Voldemort has acted with extreme 
foolishness.  Doing away with the always 20/20 hindsite, I think 
Voldemort has acted in a fairly cautious and well thought out 
manner.  Luck, however, is just not on his side.

Betsy