Predictions & PS on Sirius

[cat_kind]

No: HPFGUIDX 128968

Hans: 
> Catkind asked me why I didn't participate in this if I could 
> see the pattern of Harry Potter so clearly.

catkind:
I understand what you're saying, Hans.  But you must be just as 
capable as the rest of us at making intelligent guesses about the 
next MoM, and you ought to be able to score some good points on the 
random predictions section if you're right.  No pressure, of course, 
it's just a bit of fun.  Perhaps you will feel more able to take 
part in a corresponding contest for the next book.

Part of the reason I challenged you to participate was that you have 
been known to brag about your predictions for Book 5, and to use 
them as proof that your theories are correct. Personally, I found 
said predictions sufficiently vague that you would have been able to 
claim them fulfilled whatever happened in Book 5, but it's hard to 
show that after the fact. It would have been nice to have an 
independent verification if you want to make similar claims after 
Book 6.  For example, I think one could make a good argument for any 
of Books 1-5 being about freeing the emotional ego, and I don't 
expect HBP to be any exception. 

But your character predictions are interesting.  Several of them are 
testable, after Book 7 if not after Book 6.  

***

To some extent of course, Hans is predicting a happy ending for the 
good characters and a bad ending for the bad characters.  Well, I 
suppose JKR might choose to have LV win and spend a happy eternity 
torturing kittens and Muggles. (<- sarcasm alert!) 

What's more, several of Hans' predicted happy endings don't seem to 
preclude the characters in question being dead.  

Here's a list predictions Hans makes which I see as testable and not 
entirely a priori obvious.  For fun, I've given my personal opinion 
as a percentage likelihood that the prediction will come true, on 
the assumption that there's no Rosicrucian conspiracy.

Two of the trio will get married in book 7. (5%)
(Ron and Hermione will get together, but married? Unlikely. There 
might be a note that they get married later, but Hans' prediction 
seems to require an onscreen wedding. I suppose it's conceivable as 
an add-on later-that-year happy final scene.)

Dumbledore will perform the ceremony. (80% given wedding happens)
(Who else? I'll assign the remaining 20% to the Fat Friar and 
McGonagall in the event that DD's dead.)

Dobby may wear gold at the wedding. (60% given wedding happens)
(If there's a wedding, Dobby will wear something absurd, and if it's 
a Gryff wedding he's likely to wear something red and gold.)

Ron and Hermione will die and be resurrected. (5%)
(Unlikely, but I suppose conceivable. They are likely to be in 
severe danger and probably to get injured again.)

Harry will pass through the Veil without dying. (10%)
(I personally think we're done with the veil, others don't.)

Snape will sacrifice himself in the war. (50%)
(He's too unpleasant to have a happy ending.)

Lupin will sacrifice himself in the war. (30%)
(Well, the omens don't look good, but I'm for at least one Marauder 
surviving.)

Draco will die or serve Harry. (10%)
(He'll be defeated, but isn't important enough to die.  Even 
Umbridge didn't die.)

Crabbe and Goyle will help Harry to defeat Draco. (10%)
(Only by their sheer incompetence.)

Hagrid will no longer be Keeper of the Keys by the end of the 
series. (80%)
(He's already moved up to teacher, and even if he survives is quite 
likely to take off to Beauxbatons at some point.)

Harry may take the job. (10%)
(It would be a neat resolution.  Would also fit with one of my 
current pet theories, Harry losing his magic in the final battle.)

Filch will do magic. (10%)
(Someone unexpected is supposed to do magic, but there's also 
Petunia, Dudley and Mrs Figg as candidates.)

Lucius will survive. (50%)
(Thus far the baddies aren't really getting killed, but if they 
start doing so I'd peg Lucius as a prime candidate.)

Narcissa will end up serving Harry.(20%)
(Not buying this one, but then we know nothing about Narcissa as 
yet, so I'm not prepared to bet too high against it.) 

Is that reasonable, Hans?

Statistically speaking, it is likely that a few of these will come 
true anyway.  If many do, I will vote for according Hans all the 
bragging rights he wants!

Hans:
> Just as an aside I want to add that Jo says very clearly she was
> inspired in June 1990 on that famous train journey (...). That's 
> her own  word: "inspired".

catkind:  I'm not sure why you think this word "inspired" supports 
your argument.  Unless you think JKR was reading the Chymical 
Wedding on the train?

catkind