HBP Prediction Contest

[lupinlore]

No: HPFGUIDX 129420

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Tonks" <tonks_op at y...> wrote:
> --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, Sass <scolere at g...> wrote:
> > Apparently, (according to this story in the Guardian newspaper) an
> > investigation by the Sun [tabloid] newspaper into "odd betting
> > patterns at the market town of Bungay in Suffolk may have 
unearthed
> > the secret [of who dies in HBP] a month early. And the future, it
> > seems, is not looking bright for Albus Dumbledore."
> (Snip)> - the town which is coincidentally home to the printers, 
> Clays, who produced the previous five books in the Potter series."
> 
> 
> Tonks:
> Well that is just terrible if they did leak it in any, way, shape 
or 
> form. But the article also says that the 6th book isn't being 
> published there after the last leak. So we don't know who to 
believe 
> do we?
> 
> All I can say it if it is my beloved DD (sigh, weep), then DD is 
> also the Half-Blood prince and the flames on the bookcover are his. 
> He is being reborn or something. Geeesh.. is it July yet? By the 
> time it gets here I won't have the energy left to read it.
> 
> Tonks_op

Well, Tonks, speaking as one whose had a lot of experience with 
trying to keep things under wraps, I'd say leaks are more the rule 
than the exception.  For instance, I read about Sirius' death on the 
net before the release of OOTP -- it was placed there by somebody 
whose next-door-neighbor worked at the print shop handling one of the 
print runs.  

Having said that, I will give this piece of comfort -- most leaks are 
worthless.  They are put out by people who have bad information, or 
who have an ax to grind, or who just find it amusing to watch the 
results.  

I can think of two types of people right off the bat who would be 
inclined to put out a false leak.  One would be somebody who knows 
that the person to die ISN'T Dumbledore.  I find it suspicious that 
this whole thing is a story about betting patterns.  Suppose somebody 
at the printers found out who dies and wants to make a bundle by 
betting on it?  What better way than to put out a false rumor 
confirming a popular theory?  People rush to bet on Dumbledore, thus 
increasing the odds on your own bet and maximizing the profit.

The other would be the book's publicists.  Publicists will do 
anything to get the book in the news -- that's their job after all.  
Putting out false rumors is a time honored technique for generating 
publicity -- even if publicists will only admit that off the record 
and after half a bottle of Jack Daniels.

I think the fact that the leak so perfectly confirms people's 
expectations (take a scan over the HBP contest answers) makes it look 
rather suspicious.  Then again, Dumbledore is the obvious candidate 
for very good reason.  And we know this particular firm has had leaks 
before. (Although it isn't clear to what extent they are involved in 
printing HBP. The article says the printing is said to be taking 
place in Germany, but it doesn't say if the same firm is handling the 
job).

All of which is to say don't break down in tears yet.  But it might 
be a good idea to accustom ourselves to the idea of a Wizarding World 
and a Hogwart's without Albus Dumbledore.


Lupinlore