[HPforGrownups] NOT AGAIN! - WW Population

[manawydan]

No: HPFGUIDX 141760

Steve wrote:
>First let me say this is just some information, I AM NOT trying to
>start the whole 'how big is the Wizard World' debate all over again.

Oh, go on...

>CIA World Book of Facts.
>http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/uk.html
>United Kingdom

Did wonder whether you were going to say that the CIA had an estimate for
the wizarding population, for a second. Now that _would_ be an interesting
twist!

>Sadly, it's difficult to break the population downs into smaller
>division, so we will have to work with averages.

The census figures give an absolutely accurate snapshot (try
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census/ if you're interested). You might also
want to add in the Irish figures if you're of the belief that we're talking
about the British Isles rather than the United Kingdom but the Irish
population is much smaller, around 4 million, IIRC

What _do_ wizarding folk call their country, anyway, not having a king?

>Ratio of the Total Population of the UK to Students of Secondary
>School Age=
>60,441,457 / 5,468,225 = 11.05:1
>
>So roughly one student for every 11 citizens.

I recall working it out from the census and coming to roughly the same
figure.

>If Hogwarts is 280 student then by extrapolation the wizarding world is
[snipped]
>Seems rather small, but I guess if you look at various towns with that
>approximate population, they are significant and diverse communtities.

Following an off-list conversation with Carol, I found some stats that show
that the average size for secondary schools in Wales is around 950, which we
felt might explain the "big Hogwarts" figure of 1000 students.

>One additional comment, Wizard appear to live close to or slightly
>over 200 years of age. That throws things off significantly. Only

Marchbanks has to be over 200, given that Dumbledore is over 150.

Traditional RW age is threescore years and ten. Normal assumption is that a
RW generation is 30 years. Multiplying by 3 seems to work reasonably well
for the WW. Average age at death would be around 210. Each generation is
roughly 90 years (having it at 30 years would mean that everyone would be
drowning in several times great grandparents and several times removed
cousins, leading to a totally different social structure than the one
depicted in the books!)

That in turn would mean that the proportion of Hogwarts aged children in the
population would be a third of what it is for the Muggle UK.

However, the other wild card is that while Hogwarts is open to all, not
every invitation is taken up. What proportion you conclude don't go can lead
to all sorts of alternative conclusions.

hwyl

Ffred

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