What will happen to The Order o t Phoenix Was Re: Snape and the blah-blah what

[saraquel_omphale]

No: HPFGUIDX 141988

Before I launch into what will happen to the Order, I just want to 
comment on an earlier point in BG's post:

"B.G." wrote:
>Everyone still ponders - why did DD trust Snape?  There must be 
> more than his coming to DD to confess that he told LV about the 
> prophecy -Snape had no place to turn when LV vanished.  Did DD ask 
>Snape to enter into a UV with him to protect Harry?  
> 

Saraquel:
I know that I've pondered about DD asking Snape to take a UV, but 
decided that it would be very OOC for DD to do this.  To my mind, a 
UV is something that you ask someone to make when you do not trust 
them to either make the right choices or follow through on their 
word.  I think we have enough proof in canon to assert that DD 
places a very great emphasis on choice and tries to offer everyone 
the opportunity to make the right choice in every circumstance.  
Assuming that DD places his trust in Snape on the basis of a UV, is 
saying, IMO, that DD absolutely refused to trust Snape and decided 
to take away Snape's freedom of choice by insisting that he take an 
UV.  In fact, what DD would be doing is trusting the UV, not 
trusting Snape. So no, I don't think that DD has ever asked *anyone* 
to take a UV, although I could possibly  imagine him ceremonially 
taking a pledge or a commitment for himself.  But it seems that the 
way a UV works, it is between two people, rather than one person 
committing to a cause or a course of action, so I can't ever see DD 
having anything to do with UVs.  If Snape had said to DD, I want to 
go on the straight and narrow, please can I take a UV with you? I 
rather think DD would have said no, as again, this would have bound 
Snape to *him*, rather than encouraging Snape to have faith in 
himself to do the right thing when faced with a choice.

OK, now for the Order.

B.G. Wrote
>Harry will lead the DA - the New Order.

Saraquel:
I'm sure that somewhere really upthread we discussed what will 
happen to the Order, but I can't remember the outcomes, and don't 
think it was discussed in great depth, so I would like to 
reinvestigate if that's OK (hoping I'm not simply repeating what has 
been said before).

The Order is now leaderless and perhaps we could criticise DD for 
not ensuring that there was a clear second in command to take over.  
I really don't think that Harry will take over the lead of the 
Order.  He is young, inexperienced and has already refused to tell 
McGonegall what's going on.  DD has pretty well isolated him (apart 
from Ron and Hermione) intending him to go on alone. Harry knows 
this and IMO has already determined that he will fly separately from 
the Order but IMO, will probably call on the skills of various 
members of it – eg Bill the cursebreaker.  

I also think that the only members of the old DA who will continue 
to help Harry are Luna and Neville.  I think that JKR is going to 
have to drop characters in the last book to get all the action in, 
so I suspect that we have probably heard the last of the DA and 
Dean, Seamus, Cho etc (except maybe in passing).  I think she ended 
the DA for definite in HBP, when they were recalled and only Luna 
and Neville showed up. 

Although we know that for JKR it is important in the genre, for the 
hero to go alone into the valley of death without the 600, but she 
has to find a reason for it in the story.  My assumption has been 
that DD suspects someone is telling porky pies about their 
allegiances and is spying for LV – but that's another thread 
altogether, so ignoring that for the moment, the questions are, 
1 If there is to be a new leader who will emerge to do it?
2 Is there a possibility that the Order as we know it will fall 
apart?

Taking number one first - although McGonegall immediately took over 
as head of Hogwarts I don't think she has the charisma to lead the 
Order.  To me, her character is one of right-hand-woman.  IMO, in 
times of peace she would make a good democratic leader, but she 
lacks the decisiveness to go out on a limb, take risks and carry 
people through, which is needed in times of war and crisis.  I don't 
think she would want the role.

Lupin, Arthur, Molly, Tonks, Flitwick are all non-starters IMO – 
however much Molly might think Arthur is ideal for the job. 
Elphias Doge – wheezy-voiced silver haired wizard (OotP p47 ff) – 
nope; 
Dedalus Diggle – "squeaked the excitable Diggle" – nope; 
Emmaline Vance – late – nope, but would probably have been the best 
contender. However, there is a possibility that DD has hidden her: 
but the DEs think she's dead and surely that would only happen in a 
DDM!Snape being sent to kill her scenario.  No I think she's dead; 
Sturgis Podmore – "square jawed wizard with thick straw-coloured 
hair winked" – probably not;  
Hestia Jones – "a pink cheeked, black haired woman witch waved from 
next to the toaster" – I'm not convinced here
Hagrid – not a good idea
Caradoc Dearborn (OotP p158) – well, I think that there's a strong 
possibility that 
.. OK, don't get me started, but mark my words – 
remember Caradoc Dearborn – he will figure prominently in book 7 – 
remember you saw it here first :-)
Moody and Mung – deal with them in a minute.
Bill, Charley and the twins – Charley is still in Romania, and as we 
know that Grindlewald will come into book 7, he may stay there and 
help Harry with that part of the book (although I don't know where 
Grindlewald was based.)  I don't think Bill is leader material 
either, probably a bit too interested in sex and rock `n roll – 
don't know about the drugs bit <g> and after Greyback, he has plenty 
to contend with. Twins – well really


There are at least two loose cannons in the Order members that we 
know of – Moody and Mungdungus. I don't think Moody would follow 
anyone's orders, he's too absorbed in his own paranoia.  His orders 
come from his own head, but I think DD probably had the skill to 
work with Moody, in a Q'i Gong sort of way, allowing Moody's own 
momentum to propel him along while deftly deflecting him in the 
right direction.  Moody also trusted DD's ability as a great wizard, 
I doubt he has enough admiration for anyone else's abilities to 
trust them.

Mundungus is a problem already.  He's still lying low, as far as we 
know, but I would think that the twins are still in touch, and if 
Harry needs to contact him – which I imagine he will re the locket – 
the twins will be instrumental in bringing that about. I don't 
think, with DD gone, that Mung will have a lot to do with the 
Order.  IIRC, DD helped him out of a tight spot and Mung's 
membership of the Order was more to do with his allegiance to DD 
personally, rather than his political leanings – woz that mean then?

Now that leaves the only possible contender in my mind, and that's 
Kingsley Shacklebolt.  Intelligent, trustworthy (he's in the muggle 
PM's office)  has a foot in the Ministry and knows what's going on.  
Able to take initiative and think on his feet – modifying 
Marietta `s memory (OotP p548). Skilled – he's an experienced 
auror.  If anyone takes the lead, I think it will be him.

The next problem to be faced, IMO, is the relationship of the Order 
to the three musketeers.  I wonder if they will take kindly to Harry 
following his own path.  They don't know about the contents of the 
prophecy, even if some of them know about the first couple of 
lines.  They don't necessarily know that Trelawney was the one who 
spoke it. They don't know about the horcruxes.  Although they know 
that Voldemort is after Harry and that DD was trying to protect him, 
they don't know that Harry must meet Voldemort to defeat him.  To 
them, Harry is someone to be protected from Voldemort and 
presumably, following DD's lead, they will take this seriously.  It 
strikes me that they won't take kindly to what they see as a 
belligerent teenager taking matters into his own hands and getting 
himself into danger. Taking all this into account, I wonder if the 
relationship between the Order and Harry et al will start to 
fracture and disintegrate, and Harry might find himself with the 
Order as one of his problems. 

We know from JKR that Harry and Snape will meet again, and I can see 
real conflict if the Order gets to know about that before it 
happens. In all the criticism of Ron from the fans, JKR has said 
something along the lines of – if you don't like Ron, at least 
appreciate his loyalty to Harry.  From that, I take it that Ron will 
stick by Harry through thick and thin.  However, we have precedence 
for Hermione taking information back to authority against Harry's 
wishes – the firebolt.  I'm wondering if Hermione, in her concern 
for Harry's life, might warn the Order that Harry is planning to see 
Snape – which could have really interesting consequences.  Whether 
this happens or not, I can easily see the schism widening between 
Harry and the Order.

I think that the Order will continue, at least initially, because it 
was not only about protecting Harry, it was about gathering 
information and undermining Voldemort's plans. With DD dead, 
Scrimgeour will be even more concerned to get Harry on board to calm 
fears in the WW.  Does he know about the existence of the Order?  
Just how secret was it? It's possible that the Ministry knows of its 
existence, which could lead to him finding out about Shacklebolt and 
putting pressure on him to deal with Harry. 

If Shacklebolt does become the leader then there is a possibility of 
him falling in with Scrimgeour over the Harry problem. Perhaps 
trying to tie the Order in with the Ministry more – it possibly 
becoming more of a MI5/CIA type organisation.  I don't know that 
this would go down well with some of the members who we know have no 
love for the Ministry – McGonegall, Lupin and therefore, probably 
Tonks, Hagrid and Flitwick for starters.  In other words, it is easy 
to see a quick and easy way to cause friction and division within 
the Order if JKR wanted to do that.

The sraighforward possibility is that the Order remains united and 
backs Harry, even though they don't know what he is up to.  But this 
would require putting enormous trust in a seventeen year old who 
refuses to let anyone in on the secret.  I don't think I'd be 
convinced of that.  I think that even if Scrimgeour and the Ministry 
are removed from the equation, there are inevitably going to be 
splits in the Order between those who back Harry unwaveringly and 
those who don't, which will be really interesting to see.  

So all in all, I think that the Order will split for one reason or 
another, and that they may even add to Harry's burdens.

Wild speculation I know, but can't see a way in which the Order 
stays together and united, post DD.

Sarauqel