Interpretation (was Re: Dumbledore's "“peaceful expression�?

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 142029

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:

> 
> What we indeed don't know from canon is when JKR thinks is the first
> light of dawn. However, I simply can't believe she's so ignorant and
> math-challenged to think it's as early as 1:00am (in realty it's
> around 3:00am using DST). So even in JKR's privet clock it should be
> *at least* 4 hours, probably more than that.

Pippin:
But Hogwarts is well north of Edinburgh, where JKR lives, and she may have only a vague 
idea of how much earlier dawn is as you go north. F'rinstance, I have a vague memory of it 
being light in May in Leningrad (which shows you that it was a long time ago) at 2 AM. 
Maybe Leningrad is well north of Hogwarts, and maybe it was really three. But that's my 
impression, and if I were writing a story I might not bother to look it up, especially if it 
wasn't really important. You've got a circular argument going -- JKR would have looked 
the time up if it was important, but it's only important if there was a delay, and we only 
know there was a delay because of the time... 

> 
> Neri:
> I don't see why is it relevant how Snape sees Harry. The Order's top
> missions in OotP are to guard Harry and to guard the prophecy. This is
> made clear from the very beginning, when Harry is nearly assassinated
> because the Order's guard had left his watch, and repeated many times
> throughout the book. Snape was the last Order member left at Hogwarts.
> His obvious duty was to keep an eye on Harry. Certainly when Harry has
> a public collapse, reports messages from Voldemort in the middle of
> the day, and is held by the witch who had attacked Hagrid and
> McGonagall just the day before that. 

Pippin:
Only specific members of the Order are tasked to look after Harry, as Lupin points out at 
the beginning of the book. Presumably they have other duties that they are not supposed 
to neglect. We saw Harry get a good chewing out in HBP for disregarding his assigned 
mission. In fact if McGonagall hadn't deserted *her* duty to watch over Gryffindor students 
in a vain and unnecessary attempt to rescue Hagrid, things might have gone far otherwise. 
Harry is presumed safe as long as he is at Hogwarts and he is AFAWK not watched 
constantly while he is there. As Sirius tells him, this year, the enemy is outside Hogwarts, 
not within.

Neri:
 Even if Snape thought Harry doesn't want or can't go to the DoM by himself, surely he 
should realize that Harry alone with Umbridge away from the castle is not a
 good thing? I can imagine a lot about Snape, but not that he's stupid or naïve.
> 

Pippin:
The forest is on the grounds, patrolled by angry centaurs, and just as safe from outside 
intrusions as the rest of the castle. If there is anything in the forest that would attack a 
ministry witch or do harm to the Chosen One, it isn't likely to be deterred by Severus 
Snape. Meanwhile, Umbridge is extremely unlikely to take Harry to the Department of 
Mysteries, so as long as he's with her, Snape needn't be worried that the prophecy is in 
danger.

> > Pippin:
> > If Umbridge can arrange to have the fires at Hogwarts monitored then
so can  the DE's. They're not safe, certainly not for a message which Snape
would find very difficult to explain to Voldemort. If he's told Voldemort
that there are no Order members at Hogwarts besides him and McGonagall, then Snape is 
going to have a hard time accounting for the sudden appearance of the Order 
at Hogwarts, even if he can conceal that he summoned them.
> > 
> 
> Neri:
> It is pretty much established that Umbridge's fire was not monitored.
> If it was, Umbridge would have known what Harry told Sirius and Lupin
> after the first time he used it, and when capturing Harry she would
> have first listened to the "recording" of what he said before
> questioning him.

Pippin:
Could Snape be sure Umbridge hadn't arranged it so her  fire could communicate with her 
office at the Ministry? Could he be sure DE's couldn't eavesdrop from there? They wouldn't 
care about Harry discussing Snape's school days with Lupin or Sirius -- they *would* care 
about messages from Snape to GP. Then there's the problem of Snape trying to convince 
the Order it's really him if he doesn't use his patronus and wants them to undertake a risky 
mission to the DoM where two of their number have already been attacked. 

Neri:
> Are you saying the Order left Snape as their only man at Hogwarts with
> his only safe mean of communication a slow patronus, when all signs
> pointing that Voldemort's attack is imminent?  Again credibility is
> stretched very thin. 

Pippin:
Imagining an alternate means of communication is not only wildly speculative, it opens an 
industrial size can of worms. Why doesn't the Order use this means to summon more of its 
members before dashing off to the Ministry? Why don't they use it to tell Dumbledore 
where they've gone instead of leaving a message with Kreacher? Why don't they send 
Tonks and Shacklebolt ahead to scout in case it's a DE trap, especially if they don't really 
trust Snape very much? Why don't they send some backup to Hogwarts, ditto? 
Nope, I'm afraid Hermione's coins are the closest thing in the WW to instant text 
messages, and the Order doesn't seem to have adopted them even yet.  From what JKR 
says, they're worried about having anything on them that might mark them as Order 
members, or could be stolen and used by the enemy. 

My sense is they think it's somehow unwizarding to be at the beck and call of a  device, as 
Muggles are with their fellytones, or the Death Eaters are with their Dark Marks. Cultural 
differences, you know. Try to understand why the WWI British thought that giving 
parachutes to their pilots would encourage cowardice, or nineteenth century Americans 
thought that fire insurance was flouting Providence. It just sounds weird to us, but 
intelligent, educated people believed these things. 

> > Pippin:
> > We also know that the Ministry monitors apparation. 
> 
> Neri:
> We do? Then I must have missed it. Can you supply the canon? 

Pippin:
http://www.quick-quote-quill.org/articles/2000/1000-scholastic-chat.htm
Question: How does the wizarding world protect Muggle banks and vaults, etc. from 
wizards apparating into them and stealing the contents?

J.K. Rowling responds: Well, the Ministry of Magic keeps tabs on people apparating. That's 
why you have to have a license to do it, and the moment you abuse it you can find yourself 
in serious trouble (or Azkaban!).

Pippin