Snape's timing and the supposedly missing five hours (Was: Interpretation)

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 142097

> > Neri:
> > First, there's no need for an almanac. You just 
google "Edinburgh" 
> > (or any other nearby city), "sunset" and "sunrise" and you 
> > immediately get several weather and astronomy sites that would 
supply 
> > you with the numbers. She doesn't even need to be so exact as to 
go 
> > for any specific year.
> > 
> 
> Pippin:
> You do, because you're internet savvy. Until very recently, JKR was 
not. 

Neri:
She can also ask her editors to supply her with the numbers. It's 
their job, and I suspect they know how to use Google even if she 
doesn't.

> Neri:
> > Secondly, why would JKR bother to plot the timing of Harry's 
actions 
> > in such a consistent way? 
> 
> Pippin:
> I'm not sure what you mean by this. The dramatic confrontation at 
the end of each book 
> *always* takes place after nightfall. I would think the metaphoric 
value of having 
> Dumbledore finally deciding to enlighten Harry as the sun comes up 
would be obvious.
>

Neri:
Fair interpretation. I'd be satisfied with that if not for the other 
timing clues. Can you now explain to me the metaphoric value of "the 
sun was falling towards the top of the trees in the Forbidden Forest" 
in words that are almost identical to those in PoA, *except* for the 
difference in the sun's position showing an earlier hour, which is 
corroborated by the different relation to dinnertime, also noted in 
close proximity in both books?  
  
> 
> Pippin:
> <snip>
> It's the reason Snape doesn't become concerned sooner that the 
reader is left to wonder 
> about. Your hypothesis, as I understand it, is that Snape *was* 
concerned, but put off 
> notifying the Order as long as he dared because he wanted Harry to 
fall into Voldemort's 
> trap. 

Neri:
This is only one of my hypotheses <g>. What I'm trying to point out 
is that JKR very skillfully plotted Snape's part in the OotP climax 
so he's in the middle of it, yet from his actions alone, even after 
Dumbledore's explanations, it's impossible to prove that he's DDM, 
ESE, OFH or any other (I'm considering another possibility, but that 
for another post). You see this well-calculated ambiguity in other 
details too. For example, Dumbledore "proves" to Harry that Snape is 
DDM by saying he gave Umbridge fake veritaserum, yet only Harry (and 
us) know that Harry never actually drank that veritaserum. So we (and 
Harry, if he thinks about it) can't be sure if it was fake or not, 
yet Dumbledore believed it was proved.

Anothe example: you'll note that the second time Snape contacted HQ, 
Dumbledore specifically notes that there were several Order members 
there, but the *first* time he contacted HQ only Sirius is mentioned. 
Was Sirius alone in HQ then? It would indeed be logical for Voldy to 
start the operation only after Kreahcher reports that he and Sirius 
are alone in the house. This would enable Kreacher to safely lie to 
Harry in the fire while Sirius is upstairs tending to Buckbeak. And 
conveniently Dumbledore never had a chance to talk with Sirius before 
Sirius was killed. This means that Dumbledore might be depending only 
on Snape's testimony that he indeed contacted to find if Sirius is in 
HQ. Maybe Snape never did, but Sirius is conveniently unable to tell 
us that.

> Pippin:
> In that scenario, of course Snape would have to have realized that 
Harry was 
> travelling via thestral, because how else could he have expected 
Harry to reach  the 
> Ministry before the Order? But there's no canon that he knew or 
could have deduced it 
> without going into the forest <snip>.

Neri:
JKR had Hagrid telling us in the COMC lesson that Dumbledore 
sometimes uses the thestrals for transportation. Would it be 
unreasonable to assume that in 14 years at Hogwarts Snape has seen 
Dumbledore doing so, probably more than once? Hagrid told Luna also, 
probably in another COMC lesson, about the thestrals being very good 
at finding places. It seems he's quite proud and open about them. The 
thestrals in general cannot be missed by anyone who can see them. 
There's at least a hundred of them, they pull the school carriages, 
and can sometimes be seen flying above the Forest from the castle's 
windows. 

There are also other ways Snape would know Harry reached the Ministry 
beside the power of deduction. For example, Lucius Malfoy contacting 
him through one of the Ministry fires to tell him everything goes as 
planned and Potter had just entered the Ministry.

 
> Pippin:
> Alternatively, you hypothesize that Snape should have become 
concerned as soon as he 
> knew Umbridge had gone into the forest with Harry regardless of 
whether he thought 
> Harry was trying to get to the ministry or not. But why?
> 
> Umbridge was ready to perform an unforgivable curse in front of 
witnesses -- she has no 
> fear of the law, so there's nothing she could have done to Harry in 
the forest that she 
> wouldn't have been just as capable of doing in the castle. Snape 
surely understands that, 
> whether he knows about the crucio or not, because she's asked him, 
twice, to supply her 
> with a potion she's not entitled to use.
> 

Neri:
All the more reason why Snape should be worried, notify everybody and 
call in enforcement, whether he knows they're in the forest or not. 

> > Neri:
> > There's a very simple way to achieve this: just avoid having 
Umbridge 
> > summon Snape to her office. He simply wouldn't know about all 
this, 
> > find out from the Slyths several hours later that Umbridge took 
Harry 
> > to the forest and that they didn't came back yet. 
> 
> Pippin:
> Um, then Snape wouldn't know about Harry's vision, and he wouldn't 
have any idea that 
> Harry was trying to get to the DoM. He'd report that Harry was lost 
in the forest, the Order 
> would go looking for him (and probably get entangled with the 
centaurs), and Lucius 
> would have obtained the prophecy for his master. 

Neri:
I don't think so. OotP is very clear about the Order's strategic 
situation. I quoted Dumbledore explaining it up thread, and also the 
proof that Snape knew about it too. This situation is actually very 
simple. They have two positions to guard: Harry and the DoM. These 
two positions are closely related, so if one of them is compromised 
you immediately have to check on the other. And this connection 
becomes even stronger after the attack on Arthur, and more even 
critical after Rookwood escaping Azkaban. Moreover, the Order is 
obviously on the defense and they must employ paranoid security 
procedures, and indeed they have a paranoid ex-Auror responsible to 
the security issues. From the Order's point of view, the reasonable 
response to *anything* even slightly suspicious, and especially 
something that happens to Harry, especially something involving any 
mind attack by Voldy on Harry, would be to check what's going on in 
the DoM. They have three Ministry workers to do that, two of them 
aurors. 

 > Pippin:
>  It is not clear that the Order was still keeping a guard at the 
DoM -- we don't hear 
> anything about it after Arthur was attacked. 

Neri:
Even if they weren't, they can check on the Ministry security. Surely 
aurors can do that? They would find that the Minstry guards all 
disappeared.

> Pippin:
> It seems that at that point they changed their 
> strategy from trying to block access to the DoM to trying to block 
Harry's visions. 

Neri:
But Snape, Lupin and Sirius (and Dumbledore according to the final 
talk) knew the lessons stopped.

> Pippin:
> So how do you see this tidbit of yours coming into play? Harry's 
not looking for additional 
> evidence to convince him that Snape's a loyal DE, so he can't come 
to  it that way.  At some 
> point, maybe someone will try to convince Harry that he's mistaken 
about Snape. But 
> somehow I can't see this as the clinching counter argument -- "If 
Snape really had my 
> well-being and that of the Order in mind, he'd have sent the Order 
to the MoM sooner!"  It 
> will all be rather convoluted to explain, won't it? 
> 

Neri:
First, I'm not sure it's going to play. It may be mainly proper 
plotting on JKR's side. If she's going to reveal in the end that 
Snape is anything other than DDM, then an explanation should exist 
(even if it's not explicitly explained) for the events at the end of 
OotP and how could Dumbledore be mistaken about Snape's actions. So 
JKR carefully plotted them in a way that could be explained by any 
theory. I also have some ideas about how the missing 5 hours might 
actually play in the plot, but this is another theory.

> Pippin:
> One thing about DDM!Snape, it requires the minimal amount of 
explaining. Only two other 
> things need to be accounted for: the events on the tower, and 
Snape's corrosive attitude 
> towards Harry and Neville.

Neri:
Don't forget why he made the UV. I'm yet to read a convincing 
explanation of DDM!Snape for that. Also why he went to Dumbledore 
only after he realized that it's the Potters that are in danger. And 
an explanation for the missing 5 hrs would be nice too <g>.


Neri