[HPforGrownups] STWNSHH (was Size)

[manawydan]

No: HPFGUIDX 139444

Matt wrote:
>Here is the quote from Rowling's publication day interview that I
>meant to append to my last post.  As I read it, she is confirming that
>she envisioned exactly 40 students in Harry's year, although she
>concedes that this does not really square with her idea about the
>total number of students at Hogwarts (larger, aroung 600) or about the
>size of the total British wizarding population (which she apparently
>is estimating as approximately 3,000 school-age children, but as she
>says "don't hold me to these figures, because that's not how I think").

OK, I won't! Here's a little excursus as to why, which I call STWNSHH
(Simple Total: Wizarding Numbers Supporting Holyhead Harpies)

Quidditch is the premier wizarding sport, with 13 professional (cf Oliver
Wood) teams in the British Isles. Let's look at the fan base that each team
might get, and pick on Holyhead as a possible example.

With a population of 3000, each team would have an average fan base of
3000/13 or 231.

Let's assume that 20% of the population hate the sport and would never go to
matches (in PoA, following her statement that there were 1000 students at
Hogwarts, JKR describes there being 800 at the cup final so there's a little
justification for this). That brings the fan base down to 185.

Let's assume (just for the sake of it) that a further 10% would like to go
but can't (they are working, ill, out of the country, whatever). That brings
it down to 162.

Finally, let's knock off another 10% for those who are too young or old to
go and for the students at Hogwarts (there's no reference in the books to
their nipping off on Saturdays to watch the quiddy), bringing it down to
139.

Now let's work from the other side up. Each team has 7 players, let's be
conservative and assume that they have one reserve for each position,
bringing it up to 11. In addition, let's say that each club has a minimum
number of staff, a coach, manager, groundskeeper, and someone selling
tickets and programmes. Plus a match official.  That's a further 16,
bringing the fan base down to 123.

123 fans supporting 15 employees of the club (I assume that the Department
of Magical Games and Sports pays the referees) means that there are just 8
fans' gate money for each employee! Plus (given that there's no evidence of
things like corporate sponsorship or even corporations to do the sponsoring)
those fans' gate money has to cover equipment and upkeep of the ground.

I think that even an amateur side would struggle under those circumstances.

Even the more conservative theories would put JKR out by a factor of 10,
personally I'd think it's more like a factor of 100.

hwyl

Ffred (who being a southerner would be rooting for Caerffili rather than
Holyhead!)

O Benryn wleth hyd Luch Reon
Cymru yn unfryd gerhyd Wrion
Gwret dy Cymry yghymeiri