Spinner's End--further evidence for DDsMan!Snape??

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 140097

> houyhnhnm:
> 
> The "cool line of pale green" sounds more like the beginning of 
civil
> twilight (which would push the time Harry arrives in DD's office 
back
> as much as an hour) than it does like sunrise. But I give you your
> five hours.
> 

Neri:
The 3:00 AM estimation (3:04 to be precise) *is* the beginning of 
civil twilight as computed by an astronomical software, see the 
original timeline: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/108037
and the up-thread posts by Shawn and Steve. But as you say it hardly 
matters. Unless JKR thinks it's as early as 1:00 AM it doesn't 
significantly reduce the time Snape must have waited. 


> So when did the Order arrive at the Ministry? How long did the 
flight
> to London take? How long was TeamHarry looking for the Hall of
> Prophecies? How long did they do battle with the DEs before the 
Order
> showed up? The only way to gauge time between the "bloodred
> sunset" when Harry's thestral takes off and Harry's arrival in DD's
> office is to judge by the amount of action that takes place. It
> doesn't add up. Not for Snape. Not for Rowling, IMO.

Neri:
It can always add up for Rowling. This is because we don't know the 
travel time from Scotland to London by thestral. It's specifically 
mentioned in canon that Harry couldn't estimate it, so it can be as 
low as 45 minutes and as high as 3 hrs, and JKR can choose any number 
that would make the other times fit. In my timeline above I actually 
chose a relatively short travel time on purpose, in order to give 
Snape the benefit of doubt. A longer travel time would make the other 
times look more probable, and of course increase the time of Snape's 
delay even further.

  
> 
> My reason for not being suspicious of Snape does not hinge on 
whether
> or not he *could* have notified the Order sooner of Harry's failure 
to
> return from the forest, but whether he would have felt he had
> reason to.
> 
> Snape contacted Sirius "at once". (And we don't know the content of
> the message) Sirius was fine. What was Snape going to do then?
> Contact Grimmauld Place again and tell them "Potter's channeling
> the DL again and he's gone off into the forest". They're going to be
> like "Whatta you want us to do about it?" Until a fair amount of 
time
> had elapsed, surely there was no reason to suspect that there was a
> problem. Harry left with Umbridge after all.
> 

Neri:
Actually, my main point too was never the timeline, but Snape's 
actions (or rather lack of action) immediately after he left 
Umbridge's office. Some of his reasons to suspect there was a problem 
were detailed in: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/108146
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/117180

Some of his possible routs for action are suggested in: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/108223 (and 
ensuing thread).

All the above was written before HBP. In HBP we further encountered:

1. Order members regularly assisting with security inside Hogwarts, 
apparently without most of the students being the wiser. This makes 
calling in Order backup a much more plausible action for Snape. 

2. McGonagall's fire can be set to bring people into the Castle 
directly. Even if Umbridge took care to disconnect this option in all 
the fireplaces in Hogwarts during OotP, I doubt she would disconnect 
it in her own fireplace. Once Snape knew she's in the forest he could 
probably use it to bring in Sirius (disguised as a dog) and Tonks 
(disguised as anybody) to help him.


> houyhnhnm:
> 
> How could Snape possibly let Bellatrix know he had alerted the Order
> AT ALL, early or late and regardless of his true loyalties. That
> would be Christmas come early for her--and Lucius.
> 

Neri:
As I wrote, it wouldn't be politic of him to bring up this whole 
issue, which is probably why he didn't, although Voldy must know that 
Snape needed to alert the Order at some point if he were to maintain 
his cover. In general double-agent Snape had to play a very delicate 
game there in order to maintain both his covers. Alerting the Order 
too early would make Voldy angry. Alerting the order too late (or not 
at all) might make Dumbledore suspicious. In effect the timing he 
compromised on proved to be accurate within the minute, though this 
was probably more JKR's sense for drama.

Neri