Danger at the Wedding?

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 150786

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, OctobersChild48 at ... wrote:
>
> Kim wrote:
> 
> > I'm curious about the "coming of age" factor for the summer 
> > before Harry and Neville turn 17.  ...  How can Harry and 
> > crew begin Horcrux Hunting if Harry can't perform magic?
> > 
> > If there's trouble at the wedding ... then will Harry ... be 
> > called into a hearing to prove that they were in danger...
> 
> Sandy:
> 
> I don't recall a date being mentioned for the wedding, but 
> Harry won't be  hunting for Horcruxes until he comes of age 
> because, as per Dumbledore's request,  he is returning to 
> Privet Drive until his birthday. ... 
>
> I would think that, under the circumstances, the ban on underage 
> wizardry would be overlooked, especially with Harry's birthday
> so near. 
> 
> Sandy
>

bboyminn:

Actually, that's not quite correct, although it is a common assumption
that Harry has to stay until his birthday. Harry only has to stay for
a week, or two at the most, for the 'protection' to continue. 

Dumbledore ask Harry to return to the Dursley one more time, because
his return assured that his 'protection' would continue until his
birthday. If Harry has left at the beginning of the school year with
no intention of every returning, the protection would have ended then.
By getting the Dursley and Harry to agree to Harry returning one more
time, they have insured that the protection continues for another full
year until it normally terminates at Harry's 17 birthday.

I think, and this is just one man's opinion, that Harry, more or less,
has a premanent exemption on the Restriction on Underage Magic. Given
the circumstance that he is in, given that he could be attacked at any
moment, I don't think the Ministry is too worried about underage magic. 

In fact, I think Fudge's persecution of Harry was completely out of
proportion to what would have happened to any other underage wizard.
Fudge was looking for any excuse at all to discredit Harry and by
implication Dumbledore. The underage magic was simply that excuse. 

Further, if the Wedding is attacked there will be dozen of witnesses
including members of the Ministry, so I don't think there would be any
hearing. It would be crystal clear that defensive magic by any and all
available persons was necessary, and therefore justified.

In this group, and others, we have discussed (actually speculated) the
sequence of events in Harry's first month of his holiday, leading up
to his birthday.

In order to encorporate all the events that we speculate are likely to
happen, this was the conclusion we reached.

- Harry returns to Privet Drive with Ron and Hermione. (a week or two)
- Harry goes to the Bill's Wedding.
- Harry goes to Godric's Hollow.
- Harry returns to Privet Drive for his birthday, or just after his
birthday, to gather all his things and move out of Privet Drive for good.

This allows the comedy of Ron and Hermoine at the Dursely's. It allows
for a Wedding and potential attack at the Wedding. It allows Harry to
discover whatever secrets Godrics Hollow may hide. It allows Harry to
either have his birthday at the Burrow, or possibly at Privet Drive.
And, it allows for an attack at Privet Drive, thereby resulting in
Harry having to offer refuge to the Dursleys.

Then it's off to Grimmauld Place with the lot of them.

I think, in looking at a Wedding attack, we have to weigh the
likelihood of a Privet Drive attack. Is it likely one or the other, or
could it possibly be both? Further, if there is likely an attack on
Hogwarts, does this all add up to too many attacks?

Ignoring a Hogwarts attack, which seems very likely, is two attacks at
the beginning of the book too many, or can a feasable story be woven
around that? Two attacks within a period of two or three weeks seem
like a bit much, but then Dumbledore, the great protector, is gone.
The presences of Voldemort and the Death Eaters is indisputable. There
isn't much reason for Voldemort to hide or in any way restrain
himself. It seems like all out war now, where as previously the war
seemed somewhat covert.

While I see the Wedding as a place where many people could be
attacked, it is likely to be a well defended place. First by
additional security, and second by the shear volume of wizard likely
to be there. So, I'm more certain of an attack on the undefended
Dursleys than on the very defendable Wedding. I also question whether
Voldemort can afford to waste the DE's that will certainly be captured
or killed in a Wedding attack. 

I see the Wedding as a great opportunity but a bad plan, where as the
undefended Dusleys is both a great opportunity and a better plan.

Still...I'm uncertain.

Steve/bboyminn