What Frank Knows, and Stinger!Lucius

[elfundeb]

No: HPFGUIDX 151012

Now that the taxes are done, the houseguests are gone and everything cleaned
up, I can turn my attention to important matters like Frank Longbottom and
The Sting Theory.  Some random comments --

Rebecca:

The question this all begets is why *Frank Longbottom* would be tortured for
information about LV's whereabouts after GH?  [snip]
Would not talk about "what"? How would Frank know anything about where LV
went?

Debbie:
So many people have assumed for so long that Frank could not have known
anything about LV's whereabouts that it seems to have almost become canon.
But why couldn't Frank have any knowledge?  For those who know where -- or
perhaps how -- to look, VaporMort's whereabouts could be discovered.
Dumbledore states at the end of CoS that his information was that LV
was hiding in the forests of Albania, which of course was exactly where
Pettigrew found him a year later.

So why would Frank know?  Dumbledore, head of the OOP, made it his business
to know.  He could have searched himself, or he could have sent another
Order member.  Frank Longbottom wasn't just an Order member; he was also an
Auror.  Now unlike Dumbledore, who probably was busy cogitating about the
possible horcrux effect, the Ministry probably wanted only to confirm that
Voldemort was not only really dead but really most sincerely dead.  In any
event, they would (or at least should) have felt obligated to investigate,
and Frank had every motive to volunteer for the mission, just to reassure
himself that nobody was going to come after his son too.

There's also the fact that the Ministry accepts this motive in its
prosecution of the Lestranges & Co.  Why?  Talisman would tell us that it's
because Lucius told them so, in the guise of an informant.  But since Frank
was an Auror, the Ministry would likely have reason to know if there was any
basis for that supposition.  Therefore, I'm not prepared to write off the
stated motive as a well-placed lie.

We also don't know Frank's whereabouts before, during or after GH.  In fact,
we don't even know where the Longbottom torture took place (though most
speculation assumes it occurred at their house).  What if Frank took a road
trip shortly after Voldemort disappeared?  That would certainly fuel
speculation that he was after Voldemort.  It also provides a possible basis
for the Lestranges et al to show up on his doorstep, with or without a prod
from Lucius.

My supposition has hitherto been that Barty Jr. learned about Frank's
absence, and perhaps the reason for the absence, from his father and brought
his juicy tidbit to the fanatical Bella.  With dual motives:  (i) bring back
his master, his substitute father, and (ii) show how despite the fall of the
Dark Lord his father could not ensure the people's safety.  So Barty is the
sender.  And then Bella demanded him to come along "because you *know* the
Longbottoms, and *you* will knock on the door and get them to open up."  It
all fits.  Barty claimed he wasn't involved, but he must have been along for
a reason, right?  And the Crouches and Longbottoms are related, at least by
marriage to the Blacks.


Rebecca:
Wouldn't that line of thought perhaps lead one to the speculation Frank saw
what happened at GH?

Debbie:
I doubt he was there -- it must have been quite a party if he was there
along with LV and whoever he brought with him and if he was tailing someone
in his capacity as an Auror to boot.  Even assuming that he was there, and
saw Voldemort's spirit floating away, he wouldn't have known where it went.
He would've needed to investigate later.  And if the extra participant at GH
was Snape, he could have given Frank some leads.  (I doubt very much that
Snape would have gone searching for the vapour himself.)

Rebecca:
The other alternative is one that I feel slightly queasy about, and hate to
even mention.  What if Gran's darling Frank did something that might not be
so Order-ish - like trying to save his family in lieu of the Potters'
demise.

Debbie:
Oho!  Another one who suspects Frank might not be as saintly as Gran would
have us believe.  You don't think he enjoyed using unforgivables on
suspects, do you?  A little Crucio down in the dungeons, maybe?

OTOH, with a couple of obvious exceptions, JKR's kids seem to take their
character from their parents.  As Neville demonstrates his bravery every
day, just by showing up and trying despite his problems (not to mention his
willingness to do what he believes is right regardless of consequences), I
don't think we're ever going to see Frank's underside.  Yeah, JKR has
signalled loud and clear that he's the kind of guy that would allow himself
to be Crucio'd into insanity rather than reveal a secret.  (Of course, it's
not just any secret; revealing it could get his son killed.)  Because in the
DoM, Neville was willing to suffer the same fate rather than give up a
prophecy he knew nothing about.

Talisman:
Explain how you'd like to keep a low profile, ratting out your
sister-in-law and all.  And by the way, Cornelius, it's a shame but
I think Crouch's son will be with them, too. Tsk, tsk. Imagine what
this could do to old Barty's career, and him a shoe-in to be
Minister, and all.

But you, my dear Fudge, will certainly deserve a promotion for
capturing this last vicious gang of  DEs.  Yes, I think your star is
about to rise; we should chat more about this...perhaps over dinner?
[snip]
The spring snaps and Bella, Barty Jr--and the Dark Lordfs remaining
would-be rescuers--are safely neutralized (it is supposed)  for
life.

I don't think Lucius worried about being named in a prosecutor's
deal, at all.  For one thing, Bella's crowd was too fanatical to cut
deals--but better yet--Fudge would vouch for him as the informant.
Plenty of insurance.

Debbie:
Stinger!Lucius is a very appetizing dish, but your scenario leaves a few
bones in the fish, I think.  Fudge, for one.  I'm very fond of Evil!Fudge
theories, but he has already exited stage left after bumbling his way
through six or so years center stage at the MoM without having shown a
talent for anything except ignoring reality.  When Voldemort became
Vapormort, Fudge was merely a Junior Minister in the Department of Magical
Catastrophes.  And we need to consider the nature of the relationship
between Fudge and Malfoy.  When Fudge first became MoM, it was Dumbledore he
sought for advice.  Lucius' strategically placed gifts have cultivated
influence with Fudge, and more importantly, a blind eye ("Lucius was
cleared!  A very old family -- donations to excellent causes --").  Only a
blithering idiot would *mention* the money that greased the wheels.

Second, I think Lucius would have had trouble pulling off *both* the
informant act and the imperio act.  We know he was successful at the
latter.  In PS/SS, we learn that "his family . . . were some of the first to
come back to our side after You-Know-Who disappeared.  Said they'd been
bewitched."  Sounds like an offensive strategy to me.

Now, if Lucius was claiming the Imperio defense, how can he simultaneously
be passing information about Death Eater plans?  How does Fudge produce this
information to the powers that be at the Ministry -- because he was clearly
in the wrong department for that -- without arousing their suspicion of
Lucius?  Crouch was still in charge, and I'm sure he would have been only
too happy to send Lucius to Azkaban.  Or did he convince the Ministry to
ignore those little inconsistencies, and accept his story in exchange for
information?

Betsy Hp:
 can see Lucius being the one to *inform* on Bellatrix (if he even
knew what she was up to) in order to prevent the very hue and outcry
the attack brought about. (Though I honestly doubt he did.)  But I
have a hard time seeing what exactly Lucius hoped to gain from
sending Bellatrix on her mission in the first place, and I have a
really hard time giving him that amount of influence over his sister-
in-law.

Debbie:
I find myself agreeing with most of Betsy's questions, but I think Lucius
has ample motive to get Bella out of the way.  Quite simply, a sister-in-law
who is intent to find and resurrect Voldemort presents a clear and present
danger to an ex-DE who is loudly claiming he was imperio'd into all that
torture and whatnot.  And those buttons are easy to push.

My question is, just when did Lucius rat on her?  Because the public was in
an uproar after the Longbottoms' brains were turned to mush, and the
Ministry was all in a dither because the public had put the pressure on them
to catch those who had done it.  How does someone in the Department of
Magical Catastrophes convince the Aurors to go after the Lestranges?

We also have to contend with Dumbledore's statement that he had no idea if
Barty Jr had even been involved because "the Longbottoms' evidence was --
given their condition -- none too reliable.  Does that mean that the
Longbottoms implicated the Pensieve Four?  Or, as Talisman will certainly
assert, did the Ministry coach the Longbottoms to give the necessary
testimony?  (Don't answer that; the Ministry was certainly capable of
subornation of perjury.)

Ok, maybe the Lucius theory works as long as we leave Fudge out of it.  Why
not have him deal directly with Crouch Sr?  They're undoubtedly related,
aren't they?  It's the Karkaroff deal.

Neri:
Note that JKR's explanation as to why the Lestranges couldn't have
been sent to kill Neville is that "they were not in on the prophecy".
Strictly this isn't an explanation at all, because the Lestranges
could have easily been sent to kill Neville without knowing a thing
about the prophecy. Voldy could have simply issued a command: "if
something happens to me, you should get rid of the Longbottoms' baby"
without giving any reason, and then the Lestranges would have been
properly "sent". Yet this isn't the scenario that JKR seems to be
addressing in her answer. From the words "the Lestranges weren't in on
the secret" she appears to be addressing a hypothetical scenario in
which Voldemort told the Lestranges about the prophecy, yet didn't
strictly send them to do anything.

Debbie:
I think JKR's response shows how immersed she is in *her* plotlines, in
which neither Bellatrix nor Voldemort would give a flying fig about the
existence of bawling infants such as Harry or Neville but for the
prophecy.  Therefore, the Lestranges' lack of knowledge of the prophecy is a
complete explanation to the question.

Neri:
Well, BANG is a subjective thing, but in your scenario the whole
Longbottoms affair happened merely as a side effect of one of the bad
guys betraying some other bad guys, just so that in Book 7 it would be
merely one out of several reasons why this bad guy and his family
might defect to the side of the good guys, although said bad guy is
already in Azkaban and at odds with Voldy right now, and it doesn't
look like he or his family have much valuable secrets left in their
possession anyway. YMMV, but I feel this scenario kind of sells Frank
and Alice cheap. I'd feel much better about their horrible fate if
their heroism would somehow turn out worthwhile in the end.

Pippin:
I agree that Frank and Alice should not have had to undergo their
horrible fate just to show us that a minor character like Lucius is
a rotter. We already knew that from his dropping the diary on Ginny.
It really should be someone they thought they could trust,
don't you think? And if it's someone that Neville trusts, so much
the better. Malfoys don't qualify.

Debbie:
The fate of Frank and Alice shows us something much worse than death.  It
stands in stark contrast to the martyrdom of James and Lily, just as Harry's
role as prophecy boy and his heroic escapes from Voldemort stand in stark
contrast to the boy in bunny slippers who is willing to be Crucio'd into
insanity for the sake of protecting a prophecy he knows nothing about, just
because it's important to Harry.  Not everyone gets to be a martyr, and not
everyone gets to be a hero.  JKR is reminding us that while we revere the
obvious heroes, and rightly so, we should not ignore the contributions of
the unsung heroes.  If, as I have posited, Frank knew where Voldemort was,
his silence delayed Voldemort's return for 12 years.

As for Lucius' involvement, one of the remaining mysteries as of the end of
HBP (and one much more interesting than a Horcrux hunt) is the fate of his
son.  Dumbledore offered to protect Lucius when his term at Azkaban was up,
as well as his dependents (with apologies for the tax reference).  If Snape
can be DDM! after revealing to contents of the prophecy to Voldemort,
Lucius' fate would not be sealed by his decision to sic Bella after the
Longbottoms.

Lucius has played second fiddle to Voldemort for a long time.  He'd be much
happier as a free agent, and as Talisman pointed out, DEs can only retire
feet first.  I think Lucius could be convinced to aid in Voldemort's
downfall.  Surely there'd be a bit of BANG in that?

Then again, JKR may never tell us who sent Bella & Co.

Debbie


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