Spinner's End Confessions

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 157277

Mike:
> Ah, but Snape is the one who reported the prophesy to LV. And since 
the prophesy was probably made around Halloween 1979 then looking at 
it from June 1995 it has been about 16 years. 
*(snip)*
He just said he didn't desert his *post*. And LV had got information 
on DD from Snape before Snape started teaching at Hogwarts. What 
information depends on whose side he was on. (I know, but I'm not 
saying, hehe)

The real question for us is that little part at the end, "... when he 
returned...". Because LV returned in June 1995. So Snape is admitting 
to Bella that he had been spying on DD since June 1979. Not that 
Bella necessarily caught that, but we did. June 1979 is before the 
prophesy and just before Regelus graduates. Is maybe another clue, 
you think? Like maybe Snape was working in earnest for LV as a real 
DE should. Then something happened...BANG(sorry George)...Snape 
changes his mind and becomes a double agent. Now what happened in 
1979 that would make Snape change sides. Hmmm

Ceridwen:
Nice.  Thanks for putting it like this.  Yes, if Snape was spying on 
Dumbledore for Voldemort at the time of the prophecy (possibly as 
early as autumn 1979), then at the time of LV's reconstitution, it 
would have been about sixteen years.  It absolutely explains what he 
was doing in Hogsmeade when he was caught eavesdropping on the 
prophecy - he was following Dumbledore around.  Makes sense in the 
context of the story as it has played out so far.  This doesn't mean 
that Snape wasn't also spying on LV for Dumbledore at the same time, 
it only means that LV set him to spying on Dumbledore in 1979.

It does not explain the discrepancies between Dumbledore's version of 
the eavesdropper and Trelawney's version, but that may be cleared up 
in book 7.  (If it isn't, I hope it's a question JKR will answer once 
book 7 has been published)

> > Carol, who's also confused as to how having Draco complete his 
assigned task (killing DD) would give Snape a little more time to spy 
at Hogwarts since there would be no one left to spy on except 
McGonagall and Flitwick, neither of whom seems particularly important 
to the Order

Ceridwen:
I've wondered the same thing.  The only person left at Hogwarts of 
interest to LV would be Harry.  But, what would Harry be doing as a 
student that would be of such great interest?  Could you imagine LV 
chortling with glee as Snape reports *again* that Harry received 
detention?  Since DD was the one, implying to me that DD was the 
*only* one, that LV feared, then Snape's job for LV would end the 
minute DD is dead or gone for good.

Mike again:
> What I want to know is why LV wants Draco to infiltrate some DEs.  
When DD is at full strength he had no problem handling, what 9, 10 of 
them in the DoM, and LV knows it. So LV is going to send 6-8 of his 
less than Sterling DEs into Hogwarts where DD will be on his home 
turf and will probably have Order and Teachers to call on.

Ceridwen:
The DEs were quite a bunch, weren't they?  Someone else has called 
them 'second-string', not the real heavyweights.  It's almost as if 
he didn't want to risk his most effective followers...

Mike:
> If he expected Draco to fail at killing DD (and face it who 
wouldn't) what does he expect his DEs to do? Snape wasn't part of the 
plan because he was still in his office knitting tea cozies when 
Draco and the DEs where on the tower. I'm not so sure LV is such a 
brilliant tactician. There might be method to his madness, but all 
I'm seeing so far is the madness.

Ceridwen:
Following on from your paragraph before, if LV expects Draco to fail, 
I thought at first that LV expected the DEs to back him up, kill DD 
in case he did fail, and kill Draco too for failing.  Why else send a 
monster like Fenrir Greyback?

But, now we have Snape being out of the loop, "knitting tea cozies" 
while the action is coming down.  So, what did he really know at 
Spinner's End?  He isn't in on this, was he in on just the bare bones 
since Draco was a student and Snape was senior DE on the spot?

And, I would think LV would consider Snape to be one of his first-
string DEs, effective and competent, right up there with effective 
though fanatical Bellatrix.  Snape could have created a diversion 
instead of being so far out of the picture that Flitwick had to rouse 
him in his office.  While I couldn't imagine Snape setting off 
fireworks in the castle a la Fred and George, he could have done 
something to draw the Order and teachers away from the tower.

It's almost as if LV wanted to get rid of troublesome DEs and 
allies.  If DD at full strength can take down several DEs at once, 
not to mention Aurors and the Minister of Magic (OotP), then what 
chance do Brutal-Face, Amicus, Alecto and Greyback have against him 
on his own turf?

DD has proven that he can turn a situation without harming anyone 
permanently, but LV would attribute his own mentality (fear of death, 
for an instance) to anyone he deems to be as powerful.  LV would kill 
them all, so he thinks DD would as well.  A very elegant way to get 
rid of his problem followers without causing undue alarm within the 
DE ranks.  All of the DEs there, and Greyback, seem like 
liabilities.  If they are killed or captured, LV and the DEs are 
better off.  Sort-of like the Brown-shirts who were gotten rid of, 
since they were so brutal they were a liability, once Hitler gained 
power.  Maybe we saw the Brute Force Squad of the DE here?

Ceridwen.