DEs - Who's left? (was Re: Karkaroffs hearing)

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 157423

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Steve" <bboyminn at ...> wrote:

> > zgirnius wrote:
> > > The organization may have what is called a 'cell 
> > > structure' likesome Real Life terrorist/underground 
> > > organizations. Some A-listers  may be leaders of 
> > > small groups of B-listers. The B-listers would know 
> > > only the indetity of the other members of their 'cell' 
> > > and the leader.

Mike:
Did you read the post by pharnabazus on livejournal? If anyone is 
interested, it's an excellent dissertion on LV's cell structure.

http://pharnabazus.livejournal.com/3265.html

I highly recommend it, but be warned, it's a little old and looong.

> > Abergoat:
> > 
> > There seems to be strong evidence for this. Some Order 
> > member says they were outnumbered 30:1 (or was it 20:1?) <snip>

Mike:
Yeah, that was Lupin and it was 20:1. But, I think we've all learned 
to take Lupin's take on things with a shaker of salt.

> 
> bboyminn:
> 
<snip> 
> I believe true 'branded' Death Eaters are very few. Best guess, 
> maybe 50 to perhaps an unlikely 100 in number. 

Mike:
If I could add on here, I think your estimation of 50 *branded* DEs 
is pretty accurate. We have Harry in the graveyard thinking he would 
be outnumbered "by at least 30 to 1" (GoF, Ch. 33). Harry was pretty 
stressed here and could be unreliable, but if JKR meant for us to 
think there were 40 or more, why wouldn't she use that number?
No, I think she used 30 because that is the right number.

Then, as Voldemort walks around the group he only mentions 7 by 
name, of the DEs present, 3 dead in his service, 2 absent and 1 
returned to his service (most assume the 2 absent to be Snape and 
Karkarov, with Crouch Jr of course returned to service). This would 
put the count of *free* DEs at 33 or more, plus the 10 who escaped 
from Azkaban in OotP, makes the count 43+. Round numbers, I'd put 
the DE count at four dozen.

So what does Voldemort have available to him now in the way of DEs? 
Well, I think Crouch Jr is off the board. He lost 11 to Azkaban from 
the MoM battle, only Bella escaped, and Karkarov's name can be 
crossed off. Then he lost another 5 plus Fenrir at the end of HBP. 
(Calculation: only 3 escaped with Snape, Blondie, Alecto, and 
Amycus. Gibbon, dead man, brutal face, stunned on the tower, and an  
unnamed 3, captured, that were in the battle with the 3 that escaped 
against the 7 good guys fighting them.)

By my calculations that's 48 minus 17 leaving LV with about 30 give 
or take a few. And that includes Snape. Of course this supposes no 
new recruits, but quite frankly, I don't think there is a lot of 
recruiting going on these days. Coercion, yes, but he's not 
increasing his DE ranks.

And although this last batch don't appear to be the A Team, he did 
seem to lose a lot of A Teamers at the MoM. At this rate, Voldemort 
won't have enough DEs left to raise havoc very much longer. Hence, 
my reason for calling into question LVs strategic planning vs his 
tactical planning.