What Came First: Task or Cabinet?

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 157660

> >>bboyminn:
> > And I quote - (post#157523)
> > "No, he DID NOT. I'm sorry to be so vehement but I can't 
> > stand having this presented as canon. Voldemort discovered
> > Lucius had destroyed the Horcrux. His anger was terrible 
> > to behold. He gave Draco the task of killing Dumbledore 
> > as a response. ..."
> > Sorry, but that sounds pretty 'absolute' and 'indisputable'
> > to me, and it is centered in the Diary Horcrux. You repeat
> > this assertion again later.

> >>Magpie:
> Sorry, I guess I was being careless about that aspect (whether his 
> anger came primarily from the MoM fiasco or the diary) since I 
> honestly didn't think that was a central issue.  The actual thing 
> I was being vehement was not that Voldemort may only be angry      
> about the Diary, but that it is Voldemort's anger at Lucius that   
> leads him to give Draco the task of killing Dumbledore.  

Betsy Hp:
I just want to reiterate this because I think Steve (I doubt on 
purpose) is fogging the discussion by making it all about what 
exactly gets Voldemort angry at Lucius.  So here (for those 
following along) is the quote that got this whole discussion rolling:

> >>bboyminn:
> While I am not discrediting all the things that have been
> said so far, but let us not forget that Draco went to
> Voldemort with the Vanishing Cabinet Plan.

Betsy Hp:
Steve's statement makes it seem like Draco going to Voldemort about 
the Cabinets is canon.  ("Let us not forget that Snape was the 
Potions Master at that time," for example.)  And it seems pretty 
obvious that what Magpie was *responding* to was the *theory* that 
not only did the cabinet come first but that this is such a clear 
fact it is indeed canon.  That was what the vehemence on Magpie's 
part was about.  At least as far as my understanding goes.

Frankly, *why* Voldemort is angry at Lucius is a redherring in this 
discussion.  (Though I do see that I misremembered the reason given 
in Spinner's End. Thanks for the canon, Steve. <g>)  In the end it 
doesn't matter.  What matters is there is a serious flaw (several 
actually, but one is massive and, probably for that reason, ignored) 
in the logic of Steve's timeline.

One flaw is when exactly Montague *told* his cabinet story.

> >>Mike:
> <snip>
> Just to add on I researched the Montague/Cabinet timeline. Here's 
> what I got:

Betsy Hp:
Me too!  So I'll follow along. <g>

> >>Mike:
> Montague gets shoved into the cabinet around mid-April (F&G
> fireworks day) and emerges the next day (Pensieve snooping by Harry
> day). 

Betsy Hp:
Checked the canon, and you're quite right.  Also at this point, 
Draco has no reason to be angry at Harry.  In fact Draco is in a 
power position over Harry and having a mad fun time with it.  
Dumbledore is out of the school, so Draco has no reason to be 
gunning for him either.

> >>Mike:
> Easter Break starts that weekend. Monday after Easter Break,
> F&G swamp/Harry talks to Black & Lupin/F&G's fabulous exit. One   
> week later, which is suppose to be "just under a month" from the   
> start of OWLs making it very early May, Montague's parents visit   
> and Montague is still dazed and confused.

Betsy Hp:
Still with you.  Couldn't find the "just under a month" quote (a 
page number would have been helpful) but I'll take it on trust. <g>  
But I do think everyone should note that Montague's parents have 
been called in.  That is a pretty big deal based on how we've seen 
the calling of parents of sick students handled in the past.  
Montague must have been in pretty bad shape if they actually called 
his folks.  

We also have Hermione suggesting they tell Madame Pomfrey what 
exactly happened to Montague in order to help her figure out how to 
help him.  That is also highly suggestive that Montague is not 
entertaining groups of friends and regaling them with good stories 
about his adventures.  He's apparently not even able to tell Pomfrey 
what caused his state at this point.

And Draco is still not feeling an unusual amount of anger towards 
Harry; Dumbledore is still gone.

>> Mike:
> We next and last see Montague after OWLs are over, what appears to
> be the third Thursday of June. (The first week of June appears to  
> be OWL prep week). We get no indication of Montague's condition at 
> this point, only that Poppy is giving him medecine. 
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
We do get some indication, actually.  Here's a quote:

"[Harry] [...] burst through the double doors like a hurricane, 
causing Madame Pomfrey, who had been spooning some bright blue 
liquid into Montague's open mouth, to shriek in alarm." [OotP 
scholastic hardback p.730]

First of all, we've got Pomfrey spoon feeding a potion to Montague. 
(I already know what Steve will say to this. <bg>)  

> >>bboyminn:
> Not quite, Madame Pomfrey is 'spooning some bright blue
> liquid into Montague's open mouth'. That is quite different
> than the implication that Md. Pomfrey was 'spoon feeding'
> him.

Betsy Hp:
Erm... the definition of spoon feeding is, well, feeding someone 
with a spoon.  Which is what Pomfrey is doing.  She's not measuring 
out an amount of potion for Montague to take himself.  She's 
spooning it into his mouth herself.  I'd love any canon showing her 
doing that to a patient who's able to entertain groups of friends 
with really good stories.  (Actually, do we see her do that with any 
other patient at all? I have no idea and now I'm curious. <g>)

> >>bboyminn:
> And notice that Montague's mouth is open, he is not too incoherent 
> to understand what is happening.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
It does establish that Montague has at least the understanding of a 
one year old child (or however old it is when babies start on baby 
food).  And I think that's probably about the level he's at.  
Possibly even a bit less.  If you read through that section you'll 
notice that Pomfrey has a great deal of responses towards Harry's 
sudden entrance and rather desperate questions.  We don't see 
Montague respond at all.  An infant would have at least looked or 
startled (especially with Pomfrey's shriek).  Montague apparently 
does nothing. 

Oh, and also at this point, Draco is still not burningly mad at 
either Harry or Dumbledore.

As Mike points out, we don't see Montague again.  Which means we 
enter the world of pure speculation.  We do know (or can be 
reasonably sure), per canon, that Montague is not in the hospital 
when Ron and Hermione are there at the end of OotP.

> >>bboymin:
> <snip>
> I agree, what is talked about in the hospital scene is a little   
> sensitive, and I don't think they would have been so open with    
> Montague there. So, I conclude he is not there, that he is back in 
> Slytherin House.

Betsy Hp:
Any canon to back that conclusion up?  Raise it above the level of 
speculation?  Because this is *really* important to your theory.  
The timing of Draco hearing Montague's story is crucial and it's a 
really tiny window you're trying to squeeze it into.

> >>Mike:
> <snip>
> Speculation: Draco learned while still at school else how would he 
> have known what "everyone" else thought of the story.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
But again, there's no canon.   And we've seen that students visit 
each other over the summer.  Why should we assume that Slytherins' 
don't go visiting? Especially their newly recovered Quidditch 
captain?  Or for that matter, that they don't write letters?

Okay, so there's the first flaw.  We have *no* canon support at all 
for Draco hearing the story before the end of the school year. The 
timing is all wrong and Montague is never shown as being up for 
visitors or telling amusing stories. Pure speculation is all we have.

The second flaw is Draco's anger.  We don't see Draco in a fury 
until the very last weeks of school in OotP.  And we certainly don't 
see his anger directed against anyone but Harry.  Again, the timing 
is really bad.

But the third flaw, the biggest flaw, and the one that's been 
soundly ignored, is where the timing just becomes impossible.  We're 
supposed to buy that Draco hatches the Cabinet plan in the last few 
weeks of his fifth year. But *then* we're supposed to buy that he 
*waits* several *months* (a week or so before the beginning of 
Draco's sixth year) to even check that his plan is viable and that 
the second cabinet is available.  Huh?!?  

> >>Mike:
> <snip>
> It becomes pure speculation as to whether Draco went to LV or was 
> summoned by LV.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
That Voldemort gave Draco a task is, actually, canon.  The idea that 
Draco put himself in Voldemort's path is pure speculation, I agree. 

> >>Mike:
> My preference, Draco went to LV with the cabinet idea thinking he 
> could facilitate some terrorist raid on the school. (Thanks Betsy)
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Hmm, only Draco seems shocked that terrorists have invaded the 
school.  I put that terrorist idea to Voldemort (as an amusing side 
action, not any kind of main goal) *not* to Draco.  To put it to 
Draco flies in the face of canon, IMO.

So in the end we've got the story canon gives us: Voldemort assigned 
Draco the task of killing Dumbledore.  Characters within canon 
speculate that Voldemort does so because he's angry at Lucius and 
wants to punish him.  No other speculation is mentioned by 
characters as a possibility.

And then there's this theory Steve has raised: Draco heard about the 
cabinets back in OotP, decided it was a perfect way to attack 
Hogwarts, found a way to get to Voldemort (without his mother 
knowing about it), tells Voldemort his plan and gets the side job of 
killing Dumbledore, waited about three months before making sure one 
cabinet was available and the other cabinet reparable.  Canon never 
states that this occured.  Characters don't ever mention this as a 
possibility.

I don't know.  It seems like the cabinet came first theory is on 
pretty shaky ground.  Certainly not strong enough to start stating 
as canon.

Betsy Hp