/ESE!lupin questions (long)

[spotsgal]

No: HPFGUIDX 146125

Christina:

Thanks for your lengthy and speedy reply, Pippin!  *rubs hands together*

> Pippin:
> So they're actually not above the dais at all. They're lying on the
> floor *below* it. 
> We're not told that Harry moves again until Sirius dies. Whatever he
> saw, it was while he was on the floor struggling to help Neville, 
> who was hit with a curse that made his legs jerk uncontrollably.

Christina

When Harry goes running to Sirius at the top of page 806, he is
described as running down "the steps," plural.  He is also described
as "reaching the floor" and "reaching the ground."  So he couldn't
possibly have been on the floor already.

So, the question then becomes: how many steps did Harry have to run
down to reach the floor?  Before I get to that, I'd just like to add
that the stone steps aren't small; they are steep and are arranged in
a bench-like configuration, meant so that people can sit on one step
and comfortably put their feet down on the next.  How do we know that
Harry is climbing up the actual benches and not some set of smaller steps?

"Harry heaved again with all the strength he possessed and they
climbed another step; a spell hit the stone bench at Harry's heel
(page 804)."

Okay, let's go through the scene.  Lupin tells Harry to get out, he
grabs Neville, and "lifted him bodily onto the first tier of stone
steps."  Then they "climbed another step."  So they are now at least
on the second large stone step.  A spell hits the bench at Harry's
foot, and he falls to the step below.  Neville is said to fall to the
"ground," which I guess we can assume is the actual ground.  So now
Harry is on the first step.  This is where the canon gets fuzzy,
because it seems to contradict itself.  Harry grabs Neville and lifts
him up; that's when the prophecy drops, *but* it's said to drop onto
the "step beneath them."  So Harry and Neville must at this point be
on at least the second step.  There is absolutely no other way to make
sense of the action.  We know that Neville is kind of hanging off
Harry at this point, but there's no mention as to whether Harry
himself is sitting or standing.  JKR doesn't note him standing up when
he starts to run towards Sirius, but that doesn't really prove
anything one way or the other.

While Harry is running down the steps, he pulls out his wand, sees
Dumbledore turning towards the dais, sees Sirius's face as he's
falling into the veil, sees the veil flutter and fall into place, and
hears Bellatrix's scream of triumph.  Now yes, a lot of these things
happened at the same time, but the time between Harry's running start
and his reaching the floor is a lot longer than it would take to just
hop down two steps.  Also, when Harry hits the floor, his breath is in
"searing gasps," which makes no sense if Harry was just a step above
the floor (or already on the floor).

Another bit just to add a wrench in the works -- once Lupin drags
Harry away from the dais, he brings him over to stand near the
benches.  Then,

"Neville had slid down the stone benches one by one to the place where
Harry stood (page 808)."

It can be argued of course, but I find it *very* hard to believe that
Neville could have gotten up any steps on his own.  Harry hadn't just
been giving him a boost earlier, he had been *dragging* Neville up the
stairs with every bit of his strength.  Also consider the fact that a
very small amount of time goes by in between the time that Harry
leaves Neville and the time that Neville is described as sliding down
the steps.  So I would argue that Harry and Neville were higher up
than just a step or two (which are really quite large on their own,
I'd like to stress again).  "One by one" isn't an expression that's
really used when describing one or two things.

> Pippin:
> That's why I noted that  Lupin uses wandless magic. Quirrell 
> attempts a wandless killing curse in PS/SS so we know it can be 
> done.  

Christina:

Yes, but even wandless magic comes from somewhere.  Spells are
visible, and so they must have a visible origin.  IIRC, Quirrell uses
his hands, and it makes the most sense that wandless magic would
originate from a person's hands or fingers, which can look and
function like a wand.  Since Lupin can't exactly raise his arm to cast
a wandless spell, the spell probably came from his hands at his side.
 The spell hits Sirius in the chest (and the dais is raised), so the
trajectory must have been pretty slanted.

> Pippin:
> Lupin would need to be almost directly behind Bella...If Lupin 
> blocked Harry's view of the spell's trajectory partly blocked his 
> view of Bella, Harry wouldn't be able to see who had cast it.

Christina:

The only way that I can think of for Harry's view of Bella and Lupin
to be partially obstructed is if Lupin and Bella both had their backs
to Harry, with Lupin standing behind Bellatrix, so that the top of her
body and a sliver of her side was all Harry could see.  I'll grant you
the plausibility of that scenario, but then Harry's view of Sirius
would also have been blocked, and we know that he could see Sirius
quite well.


> Pippin:
> It would be convoluted for Harry to figure all this out, but all
> that has to happen in terms of the story is for Harry  to realize 
> that he actually didn't see Bella do it. I don't think I have to 
> recount all the times Harry has mistaken his suppositions for 
> reality. 

Christina:

Oh, you definitely don't :)  Harry misinterprets what he sees loads of
times, but I've found that his errors tend to be of the interpretive
sort, not the factual sort.  For example, he catches Molly giving
Lupin a "look" in HBP that Harry interprets "as though Lupin was
the one who was at fault for Fleur" (or something, I paraphrased
that).  We know that Harry was wrong in his *interpretation* of
Molly's action (she was giving Lupin a "look" because Tonks was
upset), but Harry was right about the look itself.  The books are
slanted by Harry's interpretations of the events that he sees, but it
isn't often that he is completely mistaken about what he is literally
seeing.  He misinterprets the conversation between Quirrell and Snape
in PS/SS, but the action and dialogue that he sees is true.

Now I know that you find the origins of the second jet of light
ambiguous (because there is no source specified).  I think it's
unlikely that Lupin stealthily knocking Sirius back could have escaped
Harry's notice (remarkable, Harry *is* paying attention to the scene
for once), but you don't, so I guess we'll just agree to disagree there.

> Pippin:
> I don't think Dumbledore discussed the prophecy with Sirius at all.
> Dumbledore says that the blame lies with him and him alone that 
> Harry did not know that Voldemort might try to lure him to the DoM.

Christina:

Which also makes sense without ESE!Lupin, considering the fact that
Dumbledore is the one regulating the amount of information that Harry
gets.

> Pippin:
> The Order doesn't seem to have been told why they were guarding the
> DoM. It's not clear whether even Snape knew at the time what 
> Voldemort was after, though obviously he knew about the prophecy 
> itself. But there is canon that Lupin and Sirius share some secret,
> because they exchange a glance when Sirius starts talking about the
> 'weapon.' 

Christina:

I buy that Sirius and Lupin know about the prophecy, and that's why
they share the look (they try and decide how much to tell Harry). 
What I don't see canon for is the fact that the rest of the Order
*doesn't* know about the prophecy.  Molly stops Lupin and Sirius from
continuing to give Harry information right at the point that they're
talking about the weapon.  Molly tells Lupin and Sirius to stop
talking, so obviously she must have known that there was more to tell.

The prophecies can only be lifted from the shelves by the people that
are named in them.  If only those people can take them, then they
can't really be studied by Unspeakables or anybody else.  Dumbledore
mentions a "Keeper" which sounds a bit like a Librarian.  The only
possible purpose of the room is a storage facility, one that is filled
with a whole *lot* of prophecies.  The ceilings are as "high as a
church (page 777)" and are filled with "towering" shelves that go on
as far as Harry can see, and there are at least 97 rows of them.  Now,
yes, JKR's favorite subject isn't math, but she makes very clear that
there's a huge number of prophecies, all of which apply to at least
one person.  Those people must know that the prophecies are there,
otherwise what's the point of storing them at all?  Even without being
told, the Order members should have been able to figure out what they
were guarding.

Okay, let's say that's a bigger leap than you're willing to make. 
Dumbledore says on page 829 that Harry's vision of Rookwood was him
"telling Voldemort what *we* had known all along -- that the
prophecies in the Ministry of Magic are heavily protected� (emphasis
mine).  If Dumbledore didn't tell the Order that they were protecting
a prophecy, then who is the "we" he talks about?

Is there any canon that supports the idea that the Order was kept in
the dark about the prophecy?

> Pippin:
> Bella is twenty feet from the doors and isn't shouting when she 
> asks for the prophecy. Neville is sobbing at her feet, so it's a bit 
> far fetched that Sirius would have heard her from behind a door.
<snip>
> Even if  Dumbledore  had told Sirius, he would have warned him not 
> to speak openly of it. Sirius would not have yelled.

Christina:

Actually, there is no description of the way Bellatrix speaks.  This
sounds really nitpicky, but it's one of the only times that a
description of dialogue *isn't* given.  There's no "Bellatrix said,"
or "Bellatrix shouted."  There's only her words, and there *is* an
exclamation point at the end of them.  Neville was making some noise,
so all the more reason for her to have shouted.  And the room is
described as a "cavernous" one that echoes.  You make a good point,
but I don't think it's *that* farfetched that the Order members could
have heard Bellatrix's words beforehand.  The DoM also seems to be a
bit maze-like and Harry is described as hearing things from other
rooms a few times.  I think it's also reasonable to think that perhaps
the Order was winding their way through the DoM and heard one of the
times Lucius shouted about getting the prophecy.

It's fairly obvious when the Order barges in that even if Harry
doesn't know about the prophecy, the Death Eaters certainly do.  As
far as Sirius was concerned, the cat was pretty much out of the bag,
and some serious stuff was happening, so who cares?  Sirius isn't much
for secrecy anyhow.
 
>> Christina:
>> So, saying that Sirius's suspicions of Lupin is evidence of 
>> ESE!Lupin is kind of like saying that Lupin and Dumbledore's 
>> suspicions of Sirius can be used as evidence for ESE!Sirius.

> Pippin:
> They certainly were until Sirius convinced us that Peter had 
> betrayed the secret. Sirius assumed that Peter must have been 
> the spy. But he offered no evidence. He just bullied Peter into 
> confessing. But should we accept that confession at face
> value? 

Christina:

They were considered evidence for ESE!Sirius, but those suspicions
turned out to be wrong.  And yes, we should absolutely accept Peter's
confession.  He wasn't killed straight-out (thanks to Lupin, btw, who
encouraged exploring the facts before taking action); Peter was asked
to defend himself, to answer Lupin's questions.  Hermione, who has
always been a supporter of fairness and truth, interjects her own
questions.  Sirius asks Peter plainly, about being a spy, "Do you deny
it?"  Peter could have said yes and continued to argue, but he didn't.
 Instead, he made excuses for his behavior.  And we now know that
Peter can and has gone to Voldemort of his own volition simply to
protect himself.

> Pippin:
> There's a link to Amnesty International on JKR's website. Would she
> really want her heroes to sentence someone without a fair trial, 
> solely on the basis of a confession extracted under duress?

Christina:

Of course not!  That is precisely why our *hero* does NOT sentence
someone without a fair trial.  Harry is our hero, and in the Shack
scene he quite literally throws himself in front of the wands of two
people about to commit murder in order to save Peter from death. 
Harry, our hero, is merciful and compassionate and just (er, here at
least).  He demands that Peter be taken to the castle, where he can be
sent to Azkaban or given other fair punishment for his crimes.  Sirius
and Remus were both wrong to want to take revenge, and it is through
Harry's purity of soul that he saves them from becoming vengeful
killers (and from committing an act that we now know would have split
their souls).  I think that JKR makes it painfully clear that Sirius
and Lupin were completely wrong in wanting to take revenge.

> Pippin:
> Would she show such a confession to be trustworthy? Maybe JKR wasn't
> thinking about it. But she insists that she takes a great deal of 
> care with the plot and the messages she's sending.

Christina:

She absolutely upholds her message in the Shack scene -- the fact that
Peter really was a spy has nothing to do with it.  The confession *is*
trustworthy, but no punishment is taken out on Peter.  Obviously,
since the Shack scene Harry has witnessed Peter bringing the Dark Lord
back to life -- he now has all the evidence he needs -- but in PoA he
saves Peter and is compared to his father (still Mr. Awesome at that
point) for doing it.

>> Christina:
>> What would it say if Lupin ultimately *did* end up being evil?  The
>> public was right all along!  Werewolves really *can't* be trusted;
>> they are inherently Dark and can follow no path but one of evil.

> Pippin:
> It's Harry's story, not Lupin's. If Harry, Ron and Hermione reached
> this conclusion it would indeed undermine JKR's message. They'd be 
> no better than Fudge and his public after all, who weren't willing 
> to take a chance there might be decent giants when as far as they 
> knew all giants were all evil. But I think the Trio is better than 
> Fudge. They have to be, don't they, for JKR's argument to have any 
> force? How is she going to show that? If the Trio judge all the 
> other werewolves by Lupin's choices, good or bad, they're making the
> same mistake Fudge is.

Christina:

It also isn't Voldemort's story, or Dumbledore's story, or Snape's
story, but that doesn't mean that these characters won't have huge
plot *and* thematic significance (even beyond their relation to Harry
and the way Harry views them).  And HRH don't have to voice prejudices
about werewolves for them to exist.  It is only by knowing Lupin that
the Weasley's have struck down their prejudices about werewolves.  Ron
reacts in violent fear in the Shack when he first hears that Lupin is
a werewolf.

> Pippin:
> I agree Peter may not be quite as incompetent as everyone thinks. 
> But that doesn't turn him into Superspy! Peter, who could fool a 
> great leglilmens like  Dumbledore for at least a year. There's not a
> hint anywhere that Peter is good at occlumency. 

Christina:

Well first of all, *somebody* fooled Dumbledore for at least a year,
something that has always kind of surprised me because, really, how
difficult is it to flush out a spy among a small group of people?  Put
the Potters in a safe house, tell Sirius, Peter, and Lupin different
locations for them, and see which location gets attacked.  Simple!

Also, do we have any reason to believe that Lupin is any good at
Occlumency?  

> Pippin:
> He either forgot completely that he was due to transform, or he 
> deliberately arranged things  so that Peter would have a chance to 
> escape. The real spy couldn't afford to let Peter be questioned by 
> Dumbledore, could he? 

Christina:

Lupin's carelessness with his potion was stupid and uncharacteristic
for somebody so meticulous, but lots of stupid mistakes have been made
by various characters in the series (particularly those in the
ever-popular DADA position).  Moody, the most paranoid person ever,
manages to get himself locked in a trunk for nine months.  Snape takes
the UV, which was completely stupid no matter where you think his
loyalties lie.  I don't think Lupin needs to "forget" his
transformation or purposefully put himself near students during it;
taking the text at face value works for me here -- Lupin saw that
somebody that he thought had been dead was actually alive, which has
major implications for the happenings of what is arguably the most
important event in Lupin's life.  Everything he thought he knew up to
that point -- wrong!  I think it'd be enough to send any normally
rational person running for the door.

> Pippin:
> 
> The other DE's might not know him as a werewolf. Voldemort wouldn't
> care. He'd probably think it was a fine joke if his pureblood 
> servants were made to take orders from someone they'd detest even 
> more than a halfblood, if they only knew.

Christina:

Maybe -- I find it a bit of a stretch.  I can't see Voldemort finding
amusement in that, any more than I can see him finding amusement in
his *own* rule over the purebloods (considering the fact that he is a
half-blood).  Somehow, I doubt he chuckles to himself about it.  He
seems to like the pureblood ideal and be ashamed of his own "dirty
blood."  Why would he find amusement in disrupting the order he has
fought to maintain?

Also, Lupin has been publicly outed as a werewolf.  Even if the DE's
hadn't known about his werewolf status way back when, they certainly
know about it now, considering it was a scandal at the school that
their children attend.  I can't see them accepting him into their
inner circle enough so that, for example, Bellatrix would so calmly
and smoothly take credit for Sirius's death (the triumphant scream). 
I'd imagine she's be more likely to say, "Huh?"
 
> Pippin:
> I think at the heart of things is a choice Harry will make: to 
> recognize that a person he likes as much as Lupin could fall into 
> evil, along with a choice to recognize that a person he hates as 
> much as Snape could turn to good.

Christina:

I have similar thoughts to yours, but I think that Harry must learn
that even people who are nice can do bad things, while people who are
mean can do good things.  Snape comes in as an example for the latter
(IMO), while examples from the former include pretty much all of our
good guys (James comes to mind as a biggie).

I think we've already seen examples of people that Harry likes turning
to evil.  He doesn't seem to mind Quirrell.  They're not best pals,
but Harry certainly doesn't think he has the capacity for evil.  Also,
BCJ-as-Moody serves as a sort of protector for Harry in GoF.  He
certainly teaches him some useful skills and seems to want to help
Harry succeed -- but turns out to be evil.  I can't remember Harry's
precise feelings about BCJ-as-Moody, but he seems to like him well enough.

Whew!  I think that's it for now.  Sorry in advance for spelling errors.

Christina