ESE!Lupin condensed

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 146800

Pippin wrote:
>
> I know the threads are getting a bit tangled, so I'll try to
summarize a bit.
> The ESE!Lupin theory states that Lupin will be revealed as a villain in
> Book Seven. What one might call the grand unified version of the theory
> is as follows:
> 

Neri:
First, congratulations for what is arguably the grandest HP conspiracy
theory. I'd say much grander than MAGIC DISHWASHER, which was after
all concerned almost exclusively with the Shrieking Shack night. So
your place in the Safe House is safe forever (or at least until the
Safe House itself is washed into TBAY by Hurricane Jo #7). 

And now to the details:

> Pippin:
>  Lupin was instrumental in the prank, as Snape suspected. 

Neri:
Aside of Snape's suspicion there is about zero evidence for that, and
Snape suspicion is hardly reliable, since he suspected James even more
than he suspected Lupin, and was apparently wrong about it.

> Pippin:
> Needing an alias to hide 
> behind while working undercover with the werewolves, he used the 
> name Wormtail. 
> 

Neri:
An amazingly lucky shot for ESE!Lupin, considering the Potters and
Sirius later decided about Peter as the Secret Keeper of their own
volition. And despite using the code name "Wormtail" it was not Peter
that Sirius suspected, but Remus. So if I understand correctly, the
sole reason we need the "Wormtail" misdirection is to explain JKR
saying in a chat, *not* in the books themselves, that Wormtail killed
Cedric. I'd much prefer that such a central clue/red-herring would be
given in the books themselves.

> Pippin:
> Lupin found it difficult to gain the werewolves' trust and may have
> compromised himself in order to get it.

Neri:
Er... I probably missed it, but was there any reason to think Lupin
was involved with the werewolves during VW1 ?

> Pippin:
> <snip>
> He then pursued Peter, who was also pursued by Sirius. When
> Sirius confronted Peter, Lupin tried to kill Peter but missed, blowing
> open the street and unintentionally killing the Muggles. Peter
> took advantage of the situation and escaped in rat form,  leaving 
> his amputated finger and bloodied robes behind him. Lupin made
> himself believe that Sirius was  a Death Eater and it was his curse that
> must have done the damage. 
> 

Neri:
I probably missed this last part too. I can't understand how could
ESE!Lupin convince himself that Sirius was a DE and why is it even needed.

> Pippin: 
> Lupin set up the Lestranges, sending them after the Longbottoms and
> arranging for them to be caught, unfortunately too late for Frank
and Alice.
> With everyone who could identify him as a double agent disposed of,

Neri:
And today Bella is just fine with that?

> Pippin: 
> Since Quirrell was under suspicion, it was Lupin who met with Hagrid
> at the Hogs Head. He also killed the unicorns.
> 

Neri:
I thought Hagrid said that the unicorns could *not* be killed by a
werewolf?

> Pippin:
> Lupin was instrumental in the Diary plot, knowing, as JKR says on her
> website, that it could have made present day Voldemort stronger.
> 

Neri: My apologies, I missed that part too. Canon?

> Pippin:
> Lupin spotted Peter's picture in the Daily Prophet and took the
> DADA position. 

Neri:
So you think Lupin knew Peter was alive. And he was *inside* the
castle the whole year, and he had never tried getting rid of Peter
himself?

> Pippin:
>When he saw Sirius at the Quidditch game, he
> summoned the dementors.

Neri:
So ESE!Lupin was trying to kill Sirius during PoA. There are so many
simpler ways he could have done it. The simplest would be telling the
Ministry that Sirius is a Black dog animagus and how he enters the
grounds. I can think of several different ways to tell that without
revealing the Marauders story. Another way would be to ambush Sirius
himself near the Willow, kill him and win the all the glory. A third
way would be to leave Sirius a note in the Shrieking Shack or in the
tunnel, writing that he now believes in Sirius' innocence and that
they should meet, and ambushing Sirius at the meeting place. Finally,
when Lupin breaks into the Shack, wand at ready, and sees Sirius on
the floor without a wand, he should kill him on the spot and *then*
take care of Scabbers.     

> Pippin:
 > When he spotted Peter on the Marauder's
> Map, he stole wolfsbane potion from Snape's cauldron and drank it
> before running out to the shack.

Neri:
He was composed enough to steal the wolfsbane potion after he spotted
Peter on the map, and yet he forgot the Map opened on his desk? And
why didn't he simply ask Snape for a cup?

> Pippin:
 > Once there, he encouraged Sirius 
> to tell his story.

Neri:
Why? I'd think ESE!Lupin would do anything to keep the Marauders'
story hidden. He had all the wands in his hands, the trio were
convinced that Sirius was an insane murderer and they obviously didn't
have a clue who Scabbers was. Much easier to stupefy Sirius, call the
demenetors, and go for Peter while the trio pass out. 

> Pippin:
> Once he was certain that Sirius no longer believed 
> that he, Lupin had been the spy, and that Sirius blamed Peter 
> for the Muggle deaths, he meant to help  Sirius kill Peter, but Harry 
> intervened.

Neri:
It was Lupin who *stopped* Sirius, with considerable effort, from
killing Peter before the whole story was out. And it was Sirius' idea
that they'd kill Peter together.

> Pippin:
> <snip> 
> He then forced Peter to return to Voldemort and cooperate in 
> the rebirthing scheme. 

Neri:
Then why didn't he do that himself long before that?

> Pippin:
> It was he, AKA "Wormtail"  who killed Cedric.
>

Neri:
I'm trying to imagine the graveyard scene with ESE!Lupin, and I'm
failing. How was he hiding from Harry? Even if he was wearing an
invisibility cloak, was he making sure Harry shuts his eyes in pain
before each and every move? And why going to so much trouble at all?
Harry wasn't supposed to get out of the graveyard alive.

> Pippin:  
> Lupin told Sirius that a record of the prophecy was stored in the
> DoM, mistakenly believing that Dumbledore would share this information
> with Harry.  Lupin put Podmore under the Imperius curse and made him
> try to break into the DoM.
> 
>  When Sirius revealed that he thought Harry knew about the prophecy,
> Lupin had no choice but to kill him. 

Neri:
I know we went over this more than once, but frankly I can't hold it
in my brain, and so I completely fail to understand why ESE!Lupin had
to tell Sirius about the prophecy in the first place and why he had to
kill Sirius later. Incidentally, I think one of the main disadvantages
of ESE!Lupin, as of MAGIC DISHWASHER, is that they're so complicated
you just can't hold them in your brain. 

> Pippin:
> Lupin "ran" Draco in HBP, put 
> Tonks under the Imperius curse to use as a messenger, and arranged for 
> Fenrir and another Death Eater to escape from the castle.
> 

Neri:
Just out of perverse curiosity, did ESE!Lupin also imperio Tonks to
fall in love with him? Or did she fell in love with him of her own
volition, and if so did she do that before or after he impriused her?
And are we going to get the saucy details in Book 7 or are we left to
imagine them?

> Pippin:
> Well, there you have it. Shorn of its supporting canon, it's not hard to
> explain. Linking it to the clues is complex, but JKR doesn't have
> to do that anymore than she had to explain all  the hints about Barty
> Crouch Jr, or H/G. 

Neri:
Umm... Barty's veritaserum confession took 7 pages in GoF, in addition
to 3 pages of voluntary bragging and 2 pages of Dumbledore's
explanations, to a total of almost one chapter, with some questions
(like Barty's part in the Longbottoms affair) still left unanswered,
and that was after only *one* book. I'd imagine the final confession
of ESE!Lupin would take at least three chapters, smack in the middle
of the Big Climax. As Pip!squeak used to write, I'd recommend a cup of
tea and a biscuit.

> Pippin: 
> The other anvil-sized hint is the matter we've been discussing recently,
> that there are discrepancies between Peter Pettigrew's character and
> the things he would have had to do to function as the spy. He does
> not seem to be a talented sneak, so the Potters and Sirius should 
> have noticed that something was wrong. If they didn't notice because
> he was no longer close to them, then it becomes untenable that Sirius
> only suspected Lupin because only Lupin and Peter were close enough.
> <snip>
> 
> I agree that ESE!Lupin would need to tell Voldemort about Peter's
> life debt, but how do we know he hasn't? Voldemort's suspicions 
> about Peter at the beginning of GoF certainly  indicate some
> concern about Peter's attitude towards to Harry. 
> Not concern enough, certainly, but this is, after all, deep magic, 
> magic at its most impenetrable, exactly the sort of magic that 
> Dumbledore says Voldemort has always discounted.
>

Neri:
Two problems here. In GoF we are shown no less than three occasions in
which Voldy accuses Peter of disloyalty, and in one of these cases he
also punishes him severely. In two of these cases he doesn't have any
reason to suspect somebody else hears what he says, an in the third
case Harry is a witness, but Voldy doesn't have a reason to think
Harry will ever get away. And yet, Voldy never mentions that Peter
owes Harry his life. Even assuming Voldy doesn't understand the
magical part of the Life Debt, I find it very hard to believe that he
knows what happened and doesn't bring it up against Peter in any of
these three occasions. 

Even worse, Peter's magical weakness and inability to keep a secret
were supposed to be an "anvil size" clue for ESE!Lupin, only it's
hardly anvil size if Peter manages to keep his Life Debt a secret from
Voldy. So now you are developing a rather speculative theory only in
order to explain how the clue to your first theory *is* anvil size. I
think something is faulty with this logic.    

Finally, I think the main problem with ESE!Lupin is that, as a
shattering end-of-the-series-that-is-only-one-book-away revelation, it
doesn't explains any of what I consider to be the "official" big
mysteries that must to be solved in the HP saga. Like why did Snape
change sides and why did Dumbledore trust him? How did Harry get
Voldy's powers and a direct link into his mind? What was the gleam in
Dumbledore's eyes about? What really happened with the UV/ on the
tower? Where are the Horcruxes hidden? How is Harry going to kill
Voldemort? 

Instead, ESE!Lupin mainly "solves" mysteries that are officially
already solved, like who was the spy that betrayed the Potters, and
things that were never even presented as mysteries in the first place,
like who killed Cedric and who killed Sirius. Admittedly it also
"solves" a few B Class mysteries like who sent the Lestranges and who
asked Voldy to spare Lily (assuming there was one) but in these cases
ESE!Lupin is only one suspect out of several, and the advantages of
him being the culprit rather than any of the others are nil.

In short, it seems to me you first shot your arrow ("Lupin is Ever So
Evil") and now you are painting a magnificent target around it.

Neri