ESE!Lupin condensed and Lupin and Sirius replies

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 146864

> Pippin:
> We don't know whether Snape's suspicion of Lupin is reliable or
> not, since we have no idea what it's based on. Canon has
> not refuted it, so it stands, IMO. So what if Snape's been
> wrong about lots of things? Harry's been wrong about
> lots of things too, but he was still right about Draco.
> 

Neri:
You repeatedly use this argument: "if canon has not refuted it – than
it stands". But I think it's a weak argument. Since canon is finite
and, in fact, extremely limited comparing to the WW that it has to
depict, it is *always* possible to find explanations that were not
refuted. 

But in a well-written mystery plot the author is supposed to give us
proper clues. Snape blamed the prank on all the Marauders and
especially on James, so if his suspicion was supposed to point at
ESE!Lupin it was a poorly written clue. 


> >
> > > Pippin:
> > > Needing an alias to hide behind while working undercover 
> with the werewolves, he used the name Wormtail.
> > >
> >
> > Neri:
> > An amazingly lucky shot for ESE!Lupin, considering the Potters and
> > Sirius later decided about Peter as the Secret Keeper of their own
> > volition. 
> 
> Pippin:
> Yeah, but the bad guys get lucky once in a while. JKR is fair
> that way.
> 

Neri:
I'm not saying the bad guys don't get lucky sometimes, but again, an
arbitrary twist of fate doesn't constitute a proper clue. Solving a
good mystery tale should be the uncovering of a chain of causes and
effects, not a chain of lucky shots.


> Pippin:
> "Wormtail" is used as  a red herring in the "Snape's Grudge"
> chapter of PoA, where Lupin asks Snape if he means Harry got the
> map from "Mr. Wormtail or one of these people. "  Of course Lupin
> knows  Snape is thinking of Lupin or Sirius, not Peter.
> 

Neri:
I don't see how Lupin mentioning "Wormtail or one of these people" on
the Map is a clue or a red-herring for him using "Wormtail" as his
code name. A good clue would be, for example, to hear Voldy or some
DEs mentioning, when Peter is *not* around, something about "Wormtail"
betraying the Potters, when in the end it will turn out that by
Wormtail they meant ESE!Lupin. There were several occasions in the
books where JKR could have used a clue of that sort, but IIRC she
never did. She only "did" it once, *not* in the books themselves but
in a chat. This is lousy mystery writing, if you can even call it
writing. 

> Pippin:
> The theory also explains  why JKR introduced Mark Evans,
> a nobody character with a "common" name  after Crouch Jr.
> had already been outed. It could have been a clue, along
> with Harry claiming "Roonil Wazlib"   as *his* nickname, that
> she's not finished with that particular plot device.
>

Neri:
Again, poor clues and some of them not in the books, but not even one
good clue in the books that Lupin or anybody other than Peter ever
used the code name "Wormtail". 


> Pippin:
> Since we don't know what Lupin was doing in VW1, I
> speculate freely. Certainly the groundwork is laid.
> 

Neri:
No harm in speculating, but again, if JKR is laying the ground for an
ESE!Lupin revelation, and it depends on ESE!Lupin involved with the
werewolves in VW1, then she's supposed to give us some clue that he
was, not merely leave room for speculations.


> > Neri:
> > I probably missed this last part too. I can't understand how could
> > ESE!Lupin convince himself that Sirius was a DE and why is it even
needed.
> 
> Pippin:
>  Goodguy!Lupin theorists have this problem too, though they usually
> gloss over it by telling themselves that Lupin didn't *really*
believe Sirius
> was a DE. Unfortunately canon doesn't bear them out. Lupin's agony
> and self-loathing over not telling Dumbledore about Sirius don't make
> any sense unless Lupin sincerely believed Sirius was guilty.
> 
>  IMO, Lupin wanted to think he wasn't  like Voldemort or Fenrir, 
> *he* wouldn't   kill needlessly (Cedric hadn't died yet.) 
> 
>  He did not want to think he had unintentionally  murdered twelve 
> Muggles , so he made up a story to excuse himself, 
> helped by the fact that there were, according to Dumbledore in HBP,
> excellent reasons to think that Sirius was guilty. He might even
have gone
> so far as to tell himself that the Secret Keeper switch was  a
bluff, that
> Sirius *had* been the real secret keeper after all. Hmmm, that would 
> explain why he didn't search for Voldemort at once. What if he'd 
> given Voldemort false information? Bad wolfie!

Neri:
Lupin's confession makes prefect sense to me and sounds very much in
character for Goodguy!Lupin. He always takes the blame on himself,
while cutting the others a lot of slack (for example, in that very
same confession he also accuses himself of "leading others along with
me" when it's obvious he didn't lead anybody - James was always the
leader of the Marauders and Sirius his deputy, and the animagi
business was their idea).  Goodguy!Lupin would not believe, deep in
his heart, that Sirius was indeed a murderer and a traitor. That
*would* be OOC for him, believing the worst about his friend. But the
"facts" pointed out that Sirius must be a murderer and a traitor, so
what would Goodguy!Lupin do? Would he turn Sirius in to the dementors?
Of course not. So he invents a rationalization and then blames
*himself* to be a coward and a betrayer of trust. All perfectly in
character for Lupin. 

But Goodguy!Lupin doesn't kill 12 muggles and then convinces himself
that he didn't. He doesn't betray his best friends to Voldemort and
then blames *Sirius* to be the DE. That would be unbelievable for any
sane person, but for the Lupin we have seen throughout the series it
would also be completely OOC.   

> > > Pippin:
> > > Since Quirrell was under suspicion, it was Lupin who met with Hagrid
> > > at the Hogs Head. He also killed the unicorns.
> > >
> >
> > Neri:
> > I thought Hagrid said that the unicorns could *not* be killed by a
> > werewolf?
> 
> Pippin:
> He says they're not fast enough. Doubtless he's thinking of
> werewolves chasing a unicorn and bringing it down, not
> spellwork. But Lupin, unlike the werewolves on the fringes
> of the WW, is a fully qualified wizard.
> 

Neri:
So *any* qualified wizard could have killed the unicorns. Again, where
is the clue that would point to Lupin specifically? 

In SS/PS, Ch. 15, p. 215 (Scholastics) Harry and Hermione track the
wounded unicorn with Hagrid in the Forbidden Forest. We are told
"Every now and then a ray of moonlight through the branches above lit
a spot of silver-blue blood on the fallen leaves". So we know there
was a moon. Two lines later Harry asks Hagrid "could a werewolf be
killing the unicorns?" Hagrid could have answered, "it could" which
would have been an excellent clue for ESE!Lupin, or at least he could
have answered "it isn't full moon tonight so it can't be a werewolf"
and that at least would imply that it could be a non-transformed
werewolf. But Hagrid answers: "Not fast enough. It's not easy ter
catch a unicorn, they're powerful magic creatures. I never knew one
ter be hurt before". This answer suggests that it *was* a full moon
night, and yet Hagrid didn't think a werewolf could catch a unicorn. 

Not that I think JKR was even thinking about Lupin when she wrote
this, but if she was, then this constitutes a very lousy clue for
ESE!Lupin killing the unicorn.   


> > Neri:
> > So you think Lupin knew Peter was alive. And he was *inside* the
> > castle the whole year, and he had never tried getting rid of Peter
> > himself?
> 
> Pippin:
> Why should he, when Crookshanks had access to Gryffindor Tower and 
> was so eager to do it for him? And then he heard that Scabbers was
dead. 
> Mission accomplished.
> >

Neri:
Again, that would have been a reasonable solution had JKR left us any
clue that Lupin heard about Crookshanks chasing Scabbers and
especially about Crookshanks finally "eating" Scabbers. But AFAIK no
such clue exists. Of course, canon hasn't "refuted" that Lupin heard
the trio arguing about it in the corridors, but where is the clue?
Without the clue this would be lousy mystery writing.

> 
> Pippin:
> The map must have shown Sirius colliding with Harry and going 
> past him to seize Pettigrew. Lupin would realize then that Sirius
> wasn't after Harry. He saw a chance to win his old friend back, provided
> that Sirius blamed everything on Pettigrew. But he had to make
> sure. 
>

Neri:
So ESE!Lupin betrayed the Potters and put Sirius in Azkaban, then he
convinced himself Sirius was a DE, then he helped Quirrelmort in SS/PS
and Lucius in CoS. Then he set the dementors on Sirius, and now he is
ready to sacrifice his new position in order to "win his old friend
back"? This isn't the behavior of a consistent character. This is the
behavior of a badly-written plot device.
 

> Pippin:
> Snape must have already been coming with the potion when Lupin
> saw Sirius seize Pettigrew. Lupin would have seen it on the map.
> 
> He left the map open deliberately so that Snape would follow him,
> just as he left Harry's cloak lying on the ground. If he hadn't taken
> his potion, Dumbledore wouldn't blame him for what the werewolf
> did. But Snape and his 'satiable curiosity had to be dealt with.
> If he didn't find Lupin in his office, he'd go looking for him anyway. 
> 

Neri:
I can see perhaps why would ESE!Lupin want Dumbledore to think he
forgot to take the potion that night, although he must have realized
that he'd lose his beloved job because of it, and I think he would
have tried to find another solution.

But I can't see why he practically invites Snape, armed and invisible,
into all this, when he has to complete such complex and risky
operation. Snape is a huge wild card that ESE!Lupin can't control.
Snape may go looking for Lupin anyway, but he wouldn't have known
*where* to look if Lupin hadn't left him the Map (which is also one of
ESE!Lupin's best assets and secrets). Again, ESE!Lupin behaves like a
very poor plot device.  


> 
> Pippin:
> I don't think he did imperius her to fall in love with him. That's why
> he feels so guilty about it. And yes, details in Book Seven.
> 

Neri:
ESE!Lupin kills muggles spare people and childhood friends, and he
feels guilty about Tonks falling in love with him?

This inconsistency of character is one of the main reasons why I find
it impossible to follow ESE!Lupin. I just can't remember by which set
of motives and beliefs he's supposed to act at any given moment.

> Pippin:
> Are you seriously advancing the convoluted denouements of PoA and
> GoF as a reason *not* to expect the denouement of HP7 to be complicated?
> 

Neri:
I'm seriously saying that if it took one chapter to explain the
convoluted denouement of GoF, then it should take *much* more than
that to explain the convoluted denouement of the whole series. 

Now, this isn't a problem if JKR took the whole series to explain it.
For example, a lot of page time was dedicated in HBP to explain the
Horcruxes background and Snape's double-agent career. In both of these
affairs a few key mysteries were left for the climax of Book 7, I'm
sure, but a considerable part of the explanations were already given,
and we will probably get more throughout Book 7 before the actual
climax. It's designed so any shattering revelation in the climax
itself can be explained in several lines without ruining the flow and
the suspense.

The problem with ESE!Lupin is that in order to work, the revelation
must be a big surprise in the climax of Book 7, and only *then* all
the explanations for ESE!Lupin's career throughout the whole series
can be given. That's very bad news for Book 7. At the very peak of
suspense we will have to go through several chapters of ESE!Lupin's
convoluted confession in order to find out if Harry comes out alive.


> 
> Pippin:
> Um, I guess I don't get why Voldemort would think it was  disloyal of 
> Peter to be saved.
> 

Neri:
It wouldn't be disloyal of Peter to be saved, but it *would* be
disloyal to show disloyalty and then lie about the reason. Instead of
FF, here is the actual canon: 

******************************************
GoF, Ch. 1:
A slight pause followed - and the Wormtail spoke, the words tumbling
from him in a rush, as though he was forcing himself to say this
before he lost his nerve.
"It could be done without Harry Potter, My Lord."

Another pause, more protracted, and then -
"Without Harry Potter?" breathed the second voice softly. "I see
"

"My Lord, I do not say this out of concern for the boy!" said
Wormtail, his voice rising squeakily. "The boy is nothing to me,
nothing at all! It is merely that if we were to use another witch or
wizard - any wizard - the thing could be done so much more quickly! If
you allowed me to leave you for a short while - you know that I can
disguise myself most effectively - I could be back here in as little
as two days with a suitable person -"

"I could use another wizard," said the cold voice softly, "that is true
"

"My Lord, it makes sense," said Wormtail, sounding thoroughly relieved
now. "Laying hands on Harry Potter would be so difficult, he is so
well protected -"

"And so you volunteer to go and fetch me a substitute? I
wonder
perhaps the task of nursing me has become wearisome for you,
Wormtail? Could this suggestion of abandoning the plan be nothing more
than an attempt to desert me?"

"My Lord! I - I have no wish to leave you, none at all -"

"Do not lie to me!" hissed the second voice. "I can always tell,
Wormtail! You are regretting that you ever returned to me. I revolt
you. I see you flinch when you look at me, feel you shudder when you
touch me
"
******************************************

Peter lied to Voldy here and got away with it. Harry *isn't* nothing
to Peter and we know it. Voldy brags that he can always tell when
Peter lies, but he caught him here in the wrong lie. 

 
> 
> Neri:
> 
> as a shattering end-of-the-series-that-is-only-one-book-away
revelation, it
> > doesn't explains any of what I consider to be the "official" big
> > mysteries that must to be solved in the HP saga. 
> <snip list>
> 
> Pippin:
> Erm, aren't you rather glossing over the Snape debate here? 

Neri:
No, I don't. I included the Snape mystery in my list. And the fact
remains: ESE!Lupin doesn't solve a single Snape mystery.

> Pippin:
> Isn't
> it kind of major to determine whether Snape really betrayed Dumbledore
> or not? And if he didn't, then someone else ought to be the traitor,
and his
> saga should be at least as involved and compelling as Snape's, or
> the reader will feel cheated. And since the real traitor didn't kill
> Dumbledore, he has to have done something equally heinous,
> preferably a number of things, in a number of books. There's
> really no one else besides Lupin in a position to do that. People
> have tried to develop theories for ESE!McGonagall and ESE!Fudge,
> but they don't have the gravitas of Lupin, and they weren't
> involved in the early days of the Order or the Prank. 
> 

Neri:
Assuming for a moment Snape isn't the traitor (which right now is
hardly a trivial assumption) I'm not aware of any canon that there
must be another traitor in the Order.

Certain readers who think that the series is primarily a standard
mystery tale might feel cheated if there isn't a traitor, but I won't.
Perhaps the first books have created an impression that the HP series
is built on a formula in which a traitor must be revealed by the end
of each book. But in fact, we didn't catch any major traitor by the
ends of CoS or OotP, and also not in HBP unless it was Snape.
Diary!Riddle was never a character we loved and trusted and Kreacher
wasn't either. Come to think of it, Quirrell and Scabbers were also
very secondary characters. Actually, judging by this track record the
traitor might very well be someone like Mundungus, Flitwick or Diggle.
*If* there is a traitor at all. *If* it is not Snape. Too many ifs to
constitute a strong argument for me.


> Pippin:
> The "official" mystery, the one pre-occupying Harry in the middle of
> the book,  seldom turns out to be a big one...for example in CoS, Harry 
> is trying to figure out *who* is opening the Chamber, while, as
Dumbledore 
> says, the real mystery is *how*.  
> 
> In GoF, Harry mostly worries about how he's going to survive the three
> tasks, when in fact his survival is guaranteed, and he should be
> wondering who is going to such trouble to see that he wins.
>

Neri:
The question is not so much what is the official mystery for *Harry*,
but what is the official mystery for the *reader*. Dumbledore is given
the role of presenting the reader with the "how" mystery in CoS, and
the true mystery in GoF is presented in the first chapter although
Harry himself mostly forgets about it. In any case, changing official
mysteries in mid-book is one thing,and changing them in the seventh
and last installment of the series is another.

> Pippin:
> LOL! It seems to me that JKR painted a magnificent target
> around Lupin, then handed her readers a bucket of whitewash
> and watched them go to work!
> 

Neri:
If she is indeed going for ESE!Lupin, then IMO it is JKR herself doing
the whitewashing. She is laying a very poorly-written mystery plot
centered on an incredibly inconsistent and irrational character.  


Neri