DD trust in Snape again. WAS: Evil Hermione

[amiabledorsai]

No: HPFGUIDX 154787

Amiable Dorsai wrote:
> A Potions class worth of students who could all testify to Snape's
> antipathy to Harry, his own record as a Death Eater (Many
>> people seem to have believed Dumbledore's testimony only
>>  reluctantly), and the fact that, of the small group of people
>>  present who could be expected to have the knowledge and
>>  power to hex a broom, he was the most likely suspect.
>
> And then, there's the fact that Harry was playing against Slytherin. ;-)

Carol responds:
> I hope that the wink in your signature line indicates that you're
> being facetious here. But if that's not the case, let's look at this
> incident realistically, shall we?

AD: I meant only the "Harry was playing against Slytherin" comment
facetiously.  I stand by the rest of it.

Keep in mind the question I was answering:

> houyhnhnm:
> If Quirrell had succeeded in his attempt on Harry's
> life, why would *Snape* have been investigated? What
> would connect him in any way?

"Investigated", not convicted, not, necessarily, even run out of
Hogwarts (Though I think that a possibility.  The Ministry is not
always overly scrupulous about guilt or innocence.)

I am not arguing that Snape is ESE!, OFH!, or even Mostly Good But
With A Bug Up His Arse About Anyone Named Potter (MGBWABUHAAANP!), but
I do assume that DDM! Snape will try to save Harry as a matter of
course, so only the other flavors of Snape need be assumed to be
acting to throw off suspicion. 

And none of Snape's 57 varieties will want Dumbledore to even suspect
that he might have tried to kill Harry, or that he failed to act when
hecould have to prevent Harry's death.

Carol:
> Evidently only two people realized that the broom was being
> hexed, Snape (who muttered the countercurse) and Hermione,
> who saw Snape's lips moving and leaped to the conclusion that
> he was hexing the broom.

AD:
On the contrary, even Hagrid recognized the possibility:

"No one seemed to have noticed that Harry's broom was behaving
strangely. It was carrying him slowly higher, away from the game,
jerking and twitching as it went.
	"Dunno what Harry thinks he's doing," Hagrid mumbled. He stared
through his binoculars. "If I didn' know better, I'd say he'd lost
control of his broom
but he can't have.
"
	Suddenly, people were pointing up at Harry all over the stands. His
broom had started to roll over and over, with him only just managing
to hold on. Then the whole crowd gasped. Harry's broom had given a
wild jerk and Harry swung off it. He was now dangling from it, holding
on with only one hand.
	"Did something happen to it when Flint blocked him?" Seamus whispered.
	"Can't have," Hagrid said, his voice shaking. "Can't nothing
interfere with a broomstick except powerful Dark magic — no kid could
do that to a Nimbus Two Thousand.""   (SS)

> Neither McGonagall nor Flitwick seems to have done anything
> more than watch, horrorstruck, like the other spectators, and yet
> surely they, too, would know the proper countercurses 
> considering that they stripped down the Firebolt that Sirius Black
> sent to Harry to detect and remove any hexes he might have 
> placed on it.

AD: 
They spent several weeks at the job, looking for various magical
booby-traps that could be placed on a broom in advance of its use. 
They could operate at leisure, taking time to go to the library or to
consult other experts.  Snape, to his credit, seems to have figured
out, on the fly, that someone was cursing the broom in real time, and
to have guessed or deduced the correct countercurse.

Carol:
> And note that hexing brooms doesn't seem to be an uncommon 
> skill at all, since they suspected Black of doing it, 

AD:
Sirius was believed to have been Voldemort's right hand man, and a
powerful Dark Wizard in his own right.  He could be assumed to have
"uncommon skill(s)".

Carol:
...and many brooms are equipped with anti-jinx charms.

AD:
Hence, Hagrid's comment:  "Can't nothing interfere with a broomstick
except powerful Dark magic..."

Carol:
> Suppose that Harry had fallen and been seriously injured or
>  killed (not likely since someone, perhaps McGonagall, would
>  have slowed his fall, and besides, we've seen many falls in 
> Quidditch and not one death at Hogwarts or the QWC). 

AD: You know, I was given a hard time when I argued this very thing a
while back.   If someone else saves him (my money's on the twins),
it's moot, of course, but if Snape is anxious to avoid being
investigated, why would he take that chance? 

Carol:
> Suppose that *someone* suspected Snape.
> All they'd have to do is check his wand to determine whether it
> had recently cast a broom hex. 

AD: 
Because no wizard, anywhere, has ever thought of using a holdout wand.
 If you were premeditating murder under circumstances where you would
certainly be investigated, wouldn't you acquire another wand for the job?

Carol:
> Either the wand would show that he'd cast
> the countercurse, or, if he were ESE! and had just let Harry fall,
> it would show nothing related to the broom hex--exactly like
> McGonagall's and Flitwick's and everyone else's.

AD:
So you agree with Severus and me that the smart thing for Severus to
do, the thing that would most allay suspicion in the event of an
investigation, would be to cast the countercurse?

Carol:
> IMO, if a hex was suspected, *Quirrell's* job would be on the
>  line because he, as DADA teacher, would be expected to detect
>  it and thwart it, just as it was Lockhart's job to deal with the 
> monster in the Chamber of Secrets (however badly he botched
> that job).

AD:
Well, I assume an even semicompetent investigator would investigate
anyone present who was capable of casting  
"powerful Dark magic".  Let's see... who do we know on the Hogwarts
staff who knows a thing or two about Dark magic besides Quirrell?

Carol:
> At any rate, if we examine motive, means and opportunity, all
> of the spectators had the opportunity to cast a hex 

AD:
"Can't nothing interfere with a broomstick except powerful Dark magic
— no kid could do that to a Nimbus Two Thousand."

Carol:
>(Any Slytherin or former Slytherin in the stands would have
> had a motive if being a Slytherin supporter counts as a motive.

AD:
As I mentioned earlier, I was kidding about that.  Volatile as Wizards
seem to be, I suspect that few of them would commit murder over a
school Quidditch match.

Carol:
> And if being sarcastic to a student who demonstrates ignorance
> of his subject is evidence of intent to murder that student, the
>  WW's justice system is worse off than we thought.

AD:
Antipathy, what I said was antipathy--and Snape has shown plenty of
that.  If someone starts looking at the small number of people in the
stands capable of using "powerful Dark magic", that will come out. 
While it may not be a reason to convict Snape, it's certainly a reason
to focus suspicion.

Carol:
> At any rate, I seriously doubt that OFH!Snape would have been
> thinking along these lines. He would have let him fall to rid
>  himself of the rule-breaking brat.  And ESE!Snape would have
>aided Quirrell rather than thwarting him and questioning his
> loyalties. (Merely keeping "unworthy Quirrell" away from the 
> stone, as Snape tells Bellatrix he was doing, does not explain his
>  thwarting Quirrell's attempt to kill Harry, who at that point did
> not seem likely to defeat Quirrell or even get inside the door.)

AD:
Much as I dislike Snape, I've never claimed he was as stupid as you
just have.  Snape is dependent on Dumbledore's goodwill.  If he is
seen by Dumbledore to have protected Harry, he gets brownie points. 
If he thwarts an attempt on the Stone, he gets brownie points.

On the other hand, if Quirrell is smart enough to lay a few false
leads, Snape could be splashed with some mud, and Snape is surely
intelligent enough to understand this.

Carol:
> As for Snape's record as a Death Eater, he had been cleared of
> all charges by Barty Crouch Sr. himself and had risked his life
> to spy on Voldemort and the Death Eaters. It's most unlikely that
> he would have been suspected of trying to kill Harry given that
> background, nor could it have been used against him in court.
> (Also, as I've stated in other posts, Snape's DE background does
> not seem to have been common knowledge.)

AD: 
A whole courtroom full of people know about it, and a reporter was
present at at least one of the trials.  Snape's status is not secret.
Any investigator is going to know about it or find out about it.

At least one Auror, Mad Eye Moody (the real one, not Crouch Jr.)
had doubts about Snape, and any cop is going to have his suspicions
about a reformed criminal, whether he was acquitted or not.

Carol:
> You refer to "the small group of people present who could be
> expected to have the knowledge and power to hex a broom" and
> "he [Snape] was the most likely suspect" as "facts." Neither is a
>  fact. Both are your opinions,

AD:
I think that the idea that there was only a small group of people
present who could be expected to have the knowledge and power to hex a
broom is well supported by the narrative.  Even if there's a Death
Eater Alumni Association cheering section (none is mentioned, though
Rowling spends a bit of ink describing the crowd), we have only a
dozen or so possibilities. (I don't really need to quote Hagrid again,
do I?  That quote is starting to look a little shopworn.)

Granted, if the hypothetical DEAA is present, my claim that Snape is
the most likely suspect goes out the window.  He is still a likely
suspect, however, for the reasons I've elucidated.

Carol:
> and the second is the point you're trying to prove. Calling
> your thesis (main point) a fact is begging the question (taking the
> point you're trying to prove for granted)--which, of course, I 
>know  you didn't intend to do. 

AD:
My thesis was that Snape was likely to be investigated, not that he
was the most likely suspect.  I admit that I simply asserted that he
was the most likely suspect without explicitly examining the other
suspects, though.

I assume that the only adults present were the ones mentioned in the
book (Hooch, Hagrid, McGonagall, Snape and Quirrell, plus a smattering
of other teachers, not mentioned, but likely to be present, I think.)

I think that if that assumption is correct (certainly it's possible
that it is not, but have we seen other adults come to Hogwarts
Quidditch matches?), Snape will be seen as the most likely suspect,
given what we know.  He did work for Voldy once upon a time, and is
well-known to have hated Harry's father, and there will be plenty of
students who can tell an investigator that he seems to have it in for
Harry.

The only other adult present with a shady (on parchment) past that we
know about is Hagrid, and he simply isn't capable of casting... well,
you know.

If the DEAA is there, or if Hooch is working with a Quidditch gambling
ring, or if Vector is carrying the Slytherin Seeker's love child, we
may have better suspects than Snape, but if we stick to what Rowling
has told us, I think Snape takes the brass ring.

Carol:
<Snip>And for all we know, Quirrell himself was a former 
> Slytherin, who would be expected to know both the curse/hex
> and its countercurse. If there's a "most likely suspect," surely it
> would be p-poor, stuttering Professor Quirrell"?

AD:
If he had a shady past that we've not been made aware of, I suppose he
would be a good suspect.  Without one, he's no more (and no less)
suspect than McGonagall, Slytherin or not.  Snape is known to have a
deep and abiding interest in the Dark Arts, and certainly could be
expected to know ways to hex a broom

> Carol, who hopes that disliking a student does not make a person
> a murder suspect even in the WW

AD:
Anywhere you go, if you have a just a small group of possibilities,
only one of whom is known to have disliked the victim, that person
will be a prime suspect.

Amiable Dorsai