DD and Draco's murder attempts WAS: Draco and Harry

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 153402

> Alla:
> 
> Um, NO in the scenario you described Dumbledore is not responsible 
> of course ( and of course to me it is a BIG leap that Snape reported 
> everything truthfully), but that is what I am trying to figure out 
> and  still do not get clear answer.
> 
> How MUCH Dumbledore knew about Draco's activities in your opinion? 
> He did not know about the cabinets? True, that seems to be supported 
> by canon, but now you are saying that after attack on Katie 
> Dumbledore STILL did not know that Draco was involved?
> 
> Dumbledore seems to be very clear that he knew who was behind 
> attack  on her in his conversation, no?

Pippin:
Well, of course he was. I'm sure you know that there are thousands 
of unsolved crimes where the police have a clear idea of who is 
responsible but not enough evidence to proceed. Have they
any right to deprive those suspects of their civil liberties? Get them
thrown out of school, for example? I don't think so, though I'm 
aware that the threat of terrorism may move some people to think
differently. 

Proof is not necessary for belief. Dumbledore knows that Draco 
has a motive, and he can see that Draco is behaving suspiciously, 
dodging appointments with Snape, crying in the bathrooms, missing 
Quidditch games, looking distraught and so forth.  Draco is not
acting like an innocent boy.  But that  is not proof. 

 Dumbledore believes that people must be treated as innocent 
until proven guilty. I  see no canon that he abandoned this belief 
in the case of  Sirius. If Dumbledore  had seen a note in Sirius's
handwriting saying that the Potters were in Godric's Hollow, 
would he not think it proved that  Sirius was the Secret Keeper?
Was there any such evidence pointing to Draco's guilt?

Further, DD has offered Hogwarts as a sanctuary: ' "Every guest
 in this hall," said Dumbledore, and his eyes lingered on the 
Durmstrang students, "will be welcomed back here at any time, 
should they wish to come."' Dumbledore was looking 
at the Slytherin Table when he said that. Was he endangering the
students? No, because, as he explained,  unity against Voldemort is
the only way to defeat him.

 Is that unity only with those who have never expressed any 
sympathy toward Voldemort's cause ? Clearly not. 
I don't see how you can argue that it isn't in
the interest of the students above everything else   to see that 
Voldemort is defeated. They are in mortal peril -- kicking
out everyone who is suspected of supporting Voldemort will
not make them safer. 

More than that is speculation, but here's what I think DD knew.
 I think DD knew from Snape that there was a plan  to smuggle a
force of Death Eaters into Hogwarts and assassinate him. Dumbledore 
and Snape believed that the plan had *no* chance of success, 
because if  Voldemort had thought the plan would work he 
wouldn't have given it to Draco. Its only purpose was to punish
the Malfoys.  That the DE's arrived at Hogwarts without any plan
 to ensure  Dumbledore's return  shows that Voldemort had no 
serious intention of their actually killing DD. They also had no
plan to get Snape involved, so Voldemort can't have wanted that
either.

 All the vow did, from Voldie's point of view, was give him
a reason to prefer that Draco get himself killed rather than 
admit failure, since the appearance of failure would force Snape
to attempt an impossible task and deprive Voldemort of a 
useful servant.


Since the plan was impossible, its details were unimportant to 
Voldemort and Dumbledore alike, except  in so far as Draco might hurt 
himself or someone else in attempting to accomplish it. Dumbledore 
therefore made sure that Draco didn't leave the castle, and tested for 
Dark or dangerous objects going in or out.

 After the attack on Katie, Dumbledore would know that
Draco must have an accomplice in Hogsmeade. Draco's increasing
distress would sugggest that someone  was taking advantage 
of DD's absences from the school to deliver threats. Information
about this might have come from Snape or other spies also. 

Snape warned Draco not to make any more  moves without backup, 
ie without the Death Eaters whom he thought had no way to get
in, but the poisoned bottle had already been sent by Rosmerta to 
Slughorn. Again there was no evidence that Draco had anything 
to do with it except that he had a motive and was acting suspiciously.

Dumbledore made sure the school was guarded
in his absence. He had Snape interrogate Draco, but did not dare
to do so himself  lest Voldemort discover that Dumbledore had become
aware of the plan. That would have brought about at least two deaths:
Draco's and Snape's, without necessarily making anyone at Hogwarts
safer. They would still be in danger from bungled DE attacks,since
Voldemort has many other stupid servants, but they would be deprived 
of the teacher who had already saved Dumbledore's life at least once 
and was their best expert on healing Dark curses.

Pippin