Understanding Snape

[fair wynn]

No: HPFGUIDX 153777


>
>Neri:
>The only problem with this is the sheer irresponsibility and stupidity
>of this non-action. He obviously shouldn't have waited any amount of
>time at all, and certainly not several hours.

wynnleaf
Consider.  If Snape had alerted the Order to go to the MOM prior to waiting 
some time to see if Harry, Hermione and Umbridge came back from the forest, 
then the Order would have gone to the MOM far too early, found nothing and 
no one there, and left with another "false alarm" report, the same as 
happened when Snape contacted 12 Grimmauld Place the first time and found 
Sirius there.


> > Gerry:
> > Searching the forest is of
> > course not a viable option because a truly extensive search of the
> > forest will take days.
>
>Neri:
>All the more reason to start immediately. And Snape "intending to
>search" shows that this at least was a viable option.

Why would he have searched immediately?  Just to track down Harry, Hermione 
and Umbridge and tell them what?  "Don't go any further.  I, Severus Snape, 
have come to rescue you Prof. Umbridge.  Surely you know that these students 
are about to overpower you!"  Which, of course, they didn't.  The centaurs 
did.  And the centaurs could have overpowered Snape, too.  And Grawp had no 
particular reason that we know to rescue Snape.

My point is that an initial search would, if he found them at all, have 
turned up exactly what he at first thought was happening -- Harry, Hermione 
and Umbridge in the forest.

They were with her until they came across the centaurs, had the altercation 
with them, were rescued by Grawp, left Umbridge in the forest, found the 
other kids, were approached by the thestrals, and flew to London -- all of 
which obviously took quite a bit of time ----- until that all happened, they 
were Not at the MOM.

All of this argument assumes that Snape should have *assumed* that Harry 
would overpower Umbridge.  But Harry did *not* overpower Umbridge.  The 
centaurs did.  And even after the centaurs overpowered her, Harry and 
Hermione would not have escaped the centaurs and the forest were it not for 
Grawp.  As far as we know, Snape may have had no idea whatsoever that Grawp 
was in the forest, much less that he'd have any interest in rescuing Harry 
and Hermione.

Harry and Hermione got out of the forest and ultimately to London through a 
series of events which had absolutely nothing to do with their abilities, 
and everything to do with dumb luck (Grawp rescuing them, blood on their 
clothes attracting thestrals).  Basically, your argument says that Snape 
should have *assumed* that Harry would have enough dumb luck to get to 
London.  Because he did *not* get to the London using his own personal 
abilities.


>
> > Gerry:
> > They went in with a teacher, there is a reasanble amount of
> > time in which he can expect them back. Yet they did not come.
> >
>
>Neri:
>That `teacher" was not very capable of handling the dangers in the
>forest. OTOH she constituted one of the great dangers herself. Just
>the day before she had led Aurors to attack both Hagrid and
>McGonagall, and Snape knew she was trying to get sensitive Order
>information out of Harry using dubious means. And all this while Snape
>knew that Harry is under a mind attack from Voldemort. No amount of
>time waiting was "reasonable" in that situation, certainly not several
>hours.

Dumbledore has allowed Harry to enter into so many far more dangerous 
situations!  If Snape is culpable for allowing Harry to go into the forest 
with Umbridge, then we must say the same for Dumbledore for allowing Harry 
to enter into so much danger again and again.   And we don't even know how 
soon Snape learned that the three had gone to the forest, as opposed to some 
other part of the castle.

Neri
>1. Snape would not be revealed as Voldemort's man, but only as an
>Order member who took too long to respond. He would have been able to
>continue as Voldemort's agent in Hogwarts and in the Order. This very
>argument is used by Snape himself in Spinner's End to explain why
>Voldemort gave the mission of assassinating Dumbledore to Draco first
>rather than to Snape. This shows that JKR is well aware of this
>consideration.

Snape's explanations at Spinner End add evidence that Voldemort knew nothing 
about Snape's involvement with sending the Order to the MOM.  Snape taunted 
Bella with the fiasco at the MOM and with the Death Eaters inability to 
overpower students.  She replied that it wasn't just students -- that the 
Order had shown up.   But he never once mentioned his own part in sending 
the Order.   In spite of all the explanations and excuses he offered her for 
his actions over the years, he never once mentioned his actions in alerting 
the Order that night.

Neri
>2. Dumbledore and the Order rushing to the Ministry and arriving too
>late would have been the ideal scenario from Voldemort's point of
>view. It would have taken just an anonymous call to the Aurors and
>Dumbledore would be caught breaking into a secret Ministry department
>together with an escaped murderer, and with a little luck framed for
>kidnapping Harry and stealing the prophecy while the Ministry can
>continue denying Voldemort's return to power. For Voldemort that would
>have been taking down all the birds with a single shot.

Since it's clear that the Death Eaters had no guarauntee of winning in a 
fight against the Order and Dumbledore, I doubt that this would have been 
their plan.   Without any Order around, but with Harry, they had a strong 
chance of getting the prophecy.  Why would they have made the situation 
fraught with risk by inviting the Order to come along?

wynnleaf