Prank question/Dumbledore and Evil (?) Snape

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 154166

 
> > Alla:
> > Well, yes among other things. I mean, Snape being silent about him 
> > being wronged? Must have really good reason and Dumbledore must 
> > have know it, if you ask me.
> 
> Leslie41:
> 
> I've heard this theory before--and certainly it's tempting to think 
> something like this especially since as Rowling has indicated, we 
> don't know everything we need to about the prank.
> 
> But it doesn't ring true for me, mostly because this would put 
> Dumbledore in the position of essentially "blackmailing" Snape to 
> stay quiet.  In other words, "I know this about you, Snape, so shut 
> up about Black or you'll both be in trouble."

Pippin:
The willow was off limits, so Snape would have been in trouble
for approaching it regardless of the time of day, though it was 
probably after hours as well. Unless he had an innocent reason, 
Snape could have been facing suspension or expulsion himself 
just for being where he was.

Further, what proof would there be that anyone had meant  Snape
to  come to serious  harm? The tunnel is quite safe when transformed
Lupin  is not in it. It would have looked like the usual mischief --
trying to get someone from a rival house to lose points for
being out of bounds.

Unless  it was suspected that  Sirius (or someone else) *arranged* 
for Snape to enter  at the proper time, it would have seemed like
a  joke that went wrong, though of course Sirius would be very lucky
indeed that Snape got rescued and luckier still that his friend 
Lupin's secret was not publicly revealed.

Dumbledore would probably think that they had all learned their 
lesson and didn't need to be punished further. Snape would have
had to hold his peace or face punishment himself, and unlike his
wealthy antagonists, James and Sirius, he couldn't have afforded to
go to another wizarding school. He doesn't seem to have been
having a happy time at Hogwarts -- surely he'd have gone 
elsewhere if he could. 

*After* Hogwarts, though, Snape could have outed Lupin
 -- but why antagonize Dumbledore when a quiet word
to someone as powerful and influential as Lucius would do the same
thing? No need to make a fuss--but after that, Lupin would be told
that any positions he applied for had just been filled, so sorry. 

Fitting punishment, if, having kept Lupin from employment, Snape
was forced to take up a job he hated. (Not so nice for
Snape's students, but then Rowling's poetic justice is dystopian.
Who'd really want to live in a world where the creator makes
people do evil so she can torture them for fun? Not me!)

Now, if this was indeed all there was to the prank, then there'd be
no need to make such a mystery of it. But if it was *Lupin* who
wanted Snape out of the way,   then  everyone
important is still alive, there really was an attempted murder, 
and a juicy mystery awaits the skills of detective Harry.

As I've said many times, Lupin is the one Marauder with a good
enough motive to want Snape dead. Once you realize that James
and Sirius weren't going to want to stop running with the werewolf
just because Snape had spied out  Lupin's hiding place, you can
see how precarious Lupin's position had become. The added 
risk would only have made it more fun for Sirius and James. But
Lupin knew what would happen to his animagi friends if they 
were caught with him. He had to act. 

Pippin