Draco's Plot

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 152512

Nikkalmati wrote:
> I have not yet decided either way regarding which came first the
chicken or the egg (the order to kill DD or the Cabinets).  Both
theories appear possible.  However, I am somewhat confused about SS'
role here.  <snip>
>  SS tells NM and BB that he thinks LV intends him to do "it" in the
 end. The reader knows "it" is DD's demise.  Yet LV  apparently has
not told SS directly to do it himself, if needed.  SS is  pretty much
left in the dark by LV and DM.  He doesn't know when this is  supposed
to happen and his attempts to pump DM (i.e. Slughorn's  party)   tell
us SS doesn't know DM's plan.  <snip> How then is SS supposed to step
up and take DM's place if  needed?  <snip>  How can it be a test, if
SS  has not been told what to do? <snip> Also, no one knew DD would be
in  such bad shape that night, so did LV expect SS to be able to take
on DD or did he think SS and 5 DE's would be enough?  Wasn't it in OTP
that DD knocked  out all the Aurors in his office without breaking a
sweat?  Did LV even know what DM was planning? <snip>  Any  thoughts?

Carol responds:

Like you, I've wondered about Snape's remark ("I think he expects me
to do it in the end"). Clearly, as you say, he's left in the dark
about Draco's plan for getting the DEs into Hogwarts and does not even
know they're there until Flitwick tells him. He's very quiet and
thoughtful as he says these words, as if he's not absolutely sure, but
I think he's stating a real expectation (or a real fear, if he's DDM).

I think, as I've said, that Draco went to Voldemort with his Vanishing
Cabinet discovery and Voldemort immediately turned it into an
assignment to kill Dumbledore, which would serve his own evil ends
whether it succeeded or failed. (I don't want to repeat the arguments,
which can be found upthread.) Apparently Voldemort told Snape about
Draco's "job" (killing DD) but not the "plan" for accomplishing it.
And yet I can't conceive of LV's not knowing what Draco intended to
do, which required the knowledge and cooperation of certain DEs and
therefore of Voldemort. (Bellatrix [I assume that's whom you mean by
"BB"] may or may not have aided him. She was apparently trying to
thwart Snape's efforts to discover the plan, but I don't see how she
could have, for example, Imperio'd Rosmerta since she's on the MoM's
most wanted list and unable to appear in public.)

At any rate, Snape, like Narcissa, knows that Draco is no match for
Dumbledore and expects him to fail. (Nutcase!Bellatrix is perfectly
willing for him to die serving the cause.) It may simply be Snape's
instinct, his knowledge of Voldemort and of his own position at
Hogwarts (supposed loyal DE who also happens to be Draco's HoH), that
leads him to suspect (or fear) that Voldemort wants him to "do the
deed" in the end. But I think it's something more. Voldemort ordered
Snape to apply for the doomed DADA position in the first place (just
possibly this idea was planted by young Snape himself in cooperation
with Dumbledore, but that's beside the point). Voldemort knows that
the position is cursed (he cursed it himself) and that Snape, if he
survives, will end up back with the DEs if he's given the DADA
position. What better way for the curse to act than to force Snape to
kill DD or die in the attempt? 

If LV has put pressure on Snape to apply again for the DADA position,
Snape, who knows that LV has assigned Draco to kill Dumbledore with
every expectation that he'll fail in the attempt, may suspect that LV
wants the DADA curse to force him to show his loyalty by killing DD or
die. Meanwhile, Snape knows full well that Dumbledore will have no
choice but to hire him for the DADA position. All DD's reasons for
hesitating are no longer valid: LV is in power and DD needs Snape's
expertise not only as a teacher but also for the other duties attached
to the DADA position (dealing with any Dark magic that threatens the
school, the students, or the faculty--Snape has already saved him from
the ring Horcrux curse), and he's found the perfect substitute for
Snape as Potions master (and future HoH of Slytherin). So Snape either
knows that he'll be given the DADA position or he has it already
(despite his misleading words to Bellatrix). If so, and if he's DDM,
he must fear that the curse will take the form of forcing him to try
to kill Dumbledore--unless he can somehow discover and thwart Draco's
plan. I think that's why he agrees to take the UV to watch over and
protect Draco. Unfortunately, the unexpected third provision leads to
exactly the situation he was trying to prevent. As for why he agrees
to the third provision, (aside from the fact that refusing to do so
would undo all the efforts he's made to gain Narcissa's trust,
persuade Bellatrix of his loyalty to LV, and, most important, protect
Draco), I think he knows that for all his expertise in potions and
duelling, *he's* no match for Dumbledore, either, and he suspects that
in the end, if he's forced to face Dumbledore and attempt to "do the
deed," the UV will kill him but DD will survive. I agree with you that
the last thing Snape expects is to see the wizard who so easily
thwarted Fudge and his cronies when they tried to arrest him and who
defeated LV in battle in the MoM disarmed, weak, and helpless on the
tower. He knew about the DADA curse, about Draco's assignment, about
the UV, but he could not have expected that Dumbledore would be the
one to die.

So, IMO, he senses in "Spinner's End" that LV will put him to the test
by somehow forcing him either to kill DD when (not if) Draco fails or
to be killed himself. But I think that he hopes the stand-off can
somehow be avoided by telling DD that Draco is trying to kill him, and
that, by working with Dumbledore, he can succeed in protecting Draco
from death or the act of murder even if it means dying himself.

If I'm right, then part of LV's plan is indeed the loyalty of the one
he believed had left him forever and forcing his hand. Whether or not
LV knew about the UV, which occurs after Snape states his suspicions
about LV's expetations), he knew about the DADA curse because he had
place it himself. And he may have hoped all along that hiring Snape to
teach that cursed subject would bring about Dumbledore's doom.

Carol, hoping that this is a plausible explanation and knowing
perfectly well that it's only one way of putting together the pieces
of canon that JKR has given us