'...He was taking too much for granted' -- another idea

[wynnleaf]

No: HPFGUIDX 161581

The phrase "take too much for granted," generally is used when one 
thinks the other is assuming too much.  Obviously, this could fit 
the idea that Snape thinks Dumbledore is making too strong an 
assumption that Draco won't kill him.  But I've been wondering if it 
could mean something else.

I think there's a lot of evidence that Dumbledore attempted a 
complex plan the night he was AK'd, and I imagine he'd been planning 
it for sometime, waiting for everything to come together to put it 
into action.  

However, I think Dumbledore's planning depended on a lot of 
variables falling into place exactly as he hoped.  One could say 
that he had to take for granted that a lot of events would occur 
just as he predicted.  And that is what I'm suspecting Snape was 
worried about -- that Dumbledore's plan allowed for Draco to 
continue with his task, but for events to culminate according to a 
plan of Dumbledore.  

So Dumbledore brought in Order members to patrol within the castle 
(which Harry, watching the Marauders Map, had not seen all that 
year), along with recalling Lupin from his werewolf mission to also 
be in the castle that night.  Dumbledore called for Harry, then sent 
him out on the pretext of obtaining the invisibility cloak while 
Dumbledore put the final touches of his plan in place.  Dumbledore 
had Snape waiting down in the dungeons for his signal (sending Harry 
to him), and set out for Hogsmeade with Harry -- making his presence 
in Hogsmeade purposefully obvious.  However, when Dumbledore 
returned his plan had developed a big flaw.  Dumbledore intended to 
send Harry to Snape -- very possibly to get him out of the way 
entirely -- and for Snape to get to Dumbledore before more events 
took place.  Dumbledore attempted to send Harry to Snape twice, but 
both times events overtook them as Draco and the DE's were moving 
more quickly than Dumbledore had planned.  Ultimately, the plan 
broke down when Harry was on the tower, frozen and vulnerable and a 
witness to Snape's AK of Dumbledore.  If Harry had not been there, 
the only witnesses to the AK would have been people whose testimony 
would have perhaps never been heard, at least not for some time, and 
Snape would not necessarily have had to flee Hogwarts.  

Knowing about the Vow, Draco's task, etc., it makes almost no sense 
for Dumbledore *not* to attempt to plan around it and use it.  
Personally, I think Dumbledore actually did try to fake his death, 
but that the plan necessitated Snape's prompt actions to make it 
work.  With Harry on the tower -- attempts to send him away having 
failed -- there was no way Snape could remain to help effect a faked 
death for Dumbledore.  [No, we don't *know* that Snape would have 
dropped dead from the Vow if he didn't kill Dumbledore there and 
then.  But of course, Dumbledore would know how the Vow worked and 
take that into consideration.]

My guess is that Snape did follow through with Dumbledore's plans 
for how to visibly AK him without really killing him, but that 
without Snape to complete help for Dumbledore (he may have ingested 
Draught of Living Death, or something lethal from the cave), 
Dumbledore would die anyway.

In any case, what I'm basically saying is that Snape's argument with 
Dumbledore is due to anxiety over the intricate nature of 
Dumbledore's plans and the fact that they relied on too many 
variables whose outcome Snape felt Dumbledore was taking for 
granted.  What I'm supposing is that some of those things Dumbledore 
took for granted *did* fail him.  His plan depended on a certain 
timing from Draco.  But events moved too swiftly within the castle, 
foiling Dumbledore's two attempts to get Harry to Snape and Snape 
back to Dumbledore -- thereby ultimately resulting in Dumbledore's 
death.

The "investigations into his house" could be regarding Draco and the 
exact nature of his plans, which Dumbledore would want in order to 
make his own plans as carefully as possible.

Just an idea... depends strongly on the notion that DD planned 
events for that night.  I'm retaining the idea that DD planned to 
fake his death, but that he failed, because I think it explains the 
various odd clues and anomolies surrounding those events and the AK, 
as well as allowing for JKR's pronouncement that Dumbledore is dead.

wynnleaf