Trelawney's interview (was Re: CHAP DISC, HBP 25, The Seer Overheard

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 161781

Julie:
> 
> What leapt out at me is the last sentence. It appears Dumbledore
> wasn't taking Trelawney too seriously as teacher material until
> she spoke the prophecy *and* Snape was caught eavesdropping. 
> Suddenly Dumbledore offers her a job at Hogwarts. We know in part
> it is to protect her, but this recall by Trelawney (assuming it
> is accurate) suggests two things.
> 
> 1. That Dumbledore believes Snape will take the prophecy back
> to Voldemort, which will put Trelawney's life in danger as
> Voldemort would want to get his hands on her and force her
> to recount the prophecy in full. I.e., Dumbledore knows or
> suspects strongly that Snape is a DE.


Pippin:

No, no, no. In the first place, Dumbledore knows that True Seers 
are rare, so even if Sybill's prophecy had had nothing to do with 
Voldemort, her ability would put her in harm's way should it
be revealed, that night or in the future.

You're also forgetting what Dumbledore knows: that
the Hogshead is a place where it is *never* (emphasis mine)
safe to assume that you haven't been overheard. Now when
Dumbledore tells Harry this, he says he learned it to his 
cost that night, but in fact he was already  familiar with
the place as we learned in HBP. So even if he hadn't caught
an eavesdropper, Dumbledore would have had to assume that
news of the prophecy would reach Voldemort. Nor, having
caught an eavesdropper, could he be sure it was the only
one. 

He also did not have to have specific information about
Snape to fear that he would be in contact with Death Eaters,
since the other thing Dumbledore knows is that no one can
tell who is working for Voldemort and who isn't. Even
if Snape himself is  innocent, anyone he tells might
be a DE and bring the news to Voldemort.

Memory charming Snape might be worse than useless. We
know that Voldemort can detect and break memory charms
(no one could have told him that Bertha's memory had been 
altered) so memory-charming Snape might only have 
helped convince Voldemort to take the prophecy 
seriously, and put a possibly innocent man at risk of having
his mind destroyed as Bertha's was.

What we can't tell at this point is whether Dumbledore
knew at the time that only part of the prophecy had been 
overheard. If he assumed that all of it would reach the
Dark Lord, then he would have expected Voldemort to 
show more caution for fear of marking his equal. If
so, and if it was Snape's defection that put the Order
on alert that Voldemort intended to take action sooner
rather than later, then Snape deserves credit for securing
Harry  the 15 months he had with his mum and dad.

Pippin