Trelawney's Disappearance --Theory

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 161830

wynnleaf
> I was just thinking about this theory today and wondering if 
> HPforGrownups ever discussed this one.  It's been a long debate on
> the Lexicon forum.

Jen:  This has been up for discussion periodically since HBP but I 
wouldn't say it's *popular* <g>.  One reason is because people 
speculated about Luna's abscence at the end of OOTP and nothing came 
of it.  Or like Julie said, why no hints?  My thought on that is 
probably the old "if the last two books are two parts of a whole 
then...,"  meaning no hints don't necessarily rule it out because 
there could be more to come.

wynnleaf:
> And what about Cissy and Bella's comments?  What had Voldemort and
> others tried and failed to do?  Kill Dumbledore?  or get the
> prophecy?  We *know* they'ed tried and failed to get the 
> prophecy.  Snape may have not known what they were referring to,
> and so his comments about thinking Voldemort meant for him to do
> it don't necessarily discredit the notion that Voldmort was really
> trying to get the prophecy.

Jen:  This is a new twist.  I'm trying to think how this would work 
with the tower.  It would mean Dumbledore didn't have to die--ouch,  
that would be hard to take.  Because by that point Draco would have 
suceeded with his task, getting the DE's in, and Snape wouldn't have 
had to kill Dumbledore to carry out the Vow.  Right?  I'm still 
thinking the UV was about killing Dumbledore and the cabinent was 
supposed to be the means.  That doesn't preclude LV having a second 
plan for the cabinent, though.

wynnleaf:
> And Dumbledore said several times in OOTP and HBP that Trelawney
> had to stay in Hogwarts to be safe.  Are those just throwaway 
> lines?  They make no difference?  Or are we supposed to pay as
> little attention to that as Harry, and be surprised to find
> Trelawney gone in Book 7?

Jen: Oh well, you know what I think but it's worth saying anyway:  
Her safety was spotlighted from the beginning to the point that 
Dumbledore strongly suggested (read, commanded) she stay when 
Umbridge tried to kick her out. DD knows Voldemort wants to get his 
hands on her and learn the prophecy but he can't while Trelawney is 
at Hogwarts under Dumbledore's protection.  That doesn't mean LV 
gave up on eventually kidnapping Trelawney.


wynnleaf: 
> Was Draco's primary task to kill Dumbledore?  Or did he start 
> making attempts on Dumbledore's life because his real task wasn't
> turning out very well and he was hoping to placate Voldemort with
> these other attempts?  Draco was quite cocky on the train for a
> kid who's supposedly assigned to kill the most powerful wizard
> that even Voldemort is afraid of.  But suppose Draco's task was
> really to get DE's into the castle and effect the kidnapping of
> Trelawney?

Jen: I'm thinking Draco approached Voldemort with the idea about the 
Vanishing Cabinents thinking he would merely be the conduit to get 
the DE's into Hogwarts.  He feels good about his job on the train, 
cocky, thinks he's got no worries.  Then at some point not long 
after, Voldemort lays the other half of the task on him:  Draco will 
be expected to kill Dumbledore when the DE's get in through the 
Vanishing Cabinent.  Then when the cabinent isn't going well, Draco 
does start making attempts like you said.  

(Narcissa and Bella knew before Draco and that's why Narcissa went 
to Snape, hoping to get protection for Draco *before* Voldemort hit 
Draco with the second part of his job.) 

wynnleaf: 
> Or -- even if Draco was origianlly assigned to kill DD -- what if
> Voldemort (who perhaps didn't think Draco could kill DD anyway),
> was really searching for a way to get his DE's into the castle and
> get to Trelawney?

Jen:  Well, this was my premise a little farther down my post that 
Voldemort had his overt plan and covert plan working, and the one 
most important to him was the covert one, i.e., getting Trelawney 
and the prophecy.

wynnleaf:
> One might think that if the target of the DE's was Trelawney, why
> did Draco get rid of her in the RoR?  Well, he might have been 
> startled and not known it was her.  Or he might have just not been
> ready.  After all, the DE's had not yet arrived.

Jen:  This is why I don't think Draco was aware of the covert plan 
Voldemort was cooking up.  As long as *one* DE knew what to do once 
they were in the castle--grab Trelawney and escape before the 
Vanishing Cabinent was disabled--then no one else need know about 
the kidnapping.  One idea I'm not sold on but could be possible is 
that Bella or whichever DE seized Trelawney was ordered to disable 
the Cabinent so no one could return, not even DE's.  Voldemort 
doesn't have that many DE's to lose though, so that idea is iffy and 
not necessary for the rest to work. 

Jen R., looking forward to other speculation as well.