Dumbledore does Lie-Part II, Snape Turned

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 159761

"The Hog's Head Inn, ... has long attracted, shall we say, a more 
interesting clientele... it is a place where it is never safe to 
assume you are not being overheard." (DD in OotP, p.843, US)
***************************************************************

How convienent that JKR gave us that red herring of the DA meeting 
in the Hog's Head being overheard. Works out perfectly for 
Dumbledore when he later claims that Sibyll's prophesy was 
overheard, doesn't it?

Let's take a little closer look at what Dumbledore wants Harry to 
believe (not that Harry has taken a closer look <g>). We are to 
believe that Snape was still working as a loyal DE at the time of 
the prophesy. How does this work with the information we've since 
received from HBP?

Snape is following Dumbledore, spying I suppose, on Voldemort's 
orders, although it is  possible that Snape was freelancing, I doubt 
Voldemort would condone it. How feasible is it that Dumbledore was 
unaware of Snape?

***************************************************************
"He has even attempted to have me followed. Amusing, really. He set 
Dawlish to tail me. It wasn't kind. I have already been forced to 
jinx Dawlish once; I did it again with the greatest regret."
(DD in HBP, p.358, US)
***************************************************************

So an experienced and trained Auror wasn't able to tail Dumbledore 
when Dumbledore didn't want to be tailed. And note that Dumbledore 
jinxed this Auror to shake the tail, regretably, but he did it. 
Would Dumbledore have any compunction against jinxing a DE to shake 
the tail? I think not. What are the chances that a wet behind the 
ears Snape was able to tail Dumbledore well enough to be able to be 
in a position to overhear the prophesy, without Dumbledore knowing 
Snape was there? None IMO. So that means that Dumbledore was 
allowing a DE to tail him.

But, you say, Dumbledore was only going to meet Trelawney for a 
teacher interview. He didn't care if he was being followed. Not the 
point. Would Dumbledore allow any DE to tail him for any reason? He 
doesn't need the extra baggage at any time, and this is nearing the 
height of VoldWar I. How could Dumbledore allow his moves to be 
tracked by Voldemort's spy? Especially when we've seen that he has 
no compunction against jinxing an Auror to lose the tail.

Problem #1: Dumbledore is allowing Snape (LV's spy) to tail him.

On what pretense is Snape-the-spy hounding Dumbledore? Well 
supposedly Snape was after a teaching job. The first thing we have 
to ask is how feasible is this story? What happened when Voldemort 
tried to get a job at Hogwarts, the first time?

*****************************************************************
"But he didn't get the job, sir?"
"No, he did not. Professor Dippet told him that he was too young at 
eighteen, but invited him to reapply in a few years, if he still 
wished to teach."
.....
"I did not give the reasons I have given you, for Professor Dippet 
was very fond of Voldemort and convinced of his honesty."
(HBP p.432, US)
*****************************************************************

So Voldemort himself couldn't get a job from an admiring Dippet, 
didn't have a chance with Dumbledore 10+ years later, and yet the 
still young Snape was suppose to get a job from Dumbledore. OK, I 
guess it's feasible that they would try. So what story is Snape 
going to give Dumbledore for why Dumbledore should trust him as a 
teacher of children? Can he "spin him a tail of deepest remorse"? 

Sorry, but haven't we all been told that Snape's remorse was over 
the telling of the prophesy? That hasn't happened yet. You see the 
problem here? Snape is lacking a decent reason for hanging around 
Dumbledore, one that LV and Snape could expect Dumbledore to 
believe. I don't see any way that Dumbledore could be expected to 
believe Snape-the-DE is legitimately seeking a teaching job. BTW, 
where did Sibyll get that story about Snape seeking a teaching post 
if not from Dumbledore?

Problem #2: Snape seeking a teaching post at this time does not have 
an air of legitimacy with respect to Dumbledore. LV doesn't have a 
good enough cover story for Snape, yet.

Now let's go into the Hog's Head. Dumbledore is allowing himself to 
be followed by a DE, a DE without a decent story as to why he's 
following Dumbledore. Why let Snape stay in the first place? We know 
Snape was thrown from the bar later for eavesdroppoing. But 
Aberforth could have denied him admittance with something like: 'We 
don't allow spies in here.' or simply, 'we don't serve your kind.' 
After all, Abe had no compunction ejecting Mundungus 20 years ago 
and still denying him admittance to this day. Does Abe even need a 
reason to eject Snape, knowing that Snape is "one of them"? At the 
very least, Aberforth should keep an eye on Snape, not give him free 
run of the place, not with his brother upstairs.

Again you say, how does Aberforth know that Snape is a bad guy.

*****************************************************************
Dumbledore raised his eyebrows. "And what will become of those whom 
you command? What will happen to those who call themselves - or so 
rumor has it - the Death eaters?"
Harry could tell that Voldemort had not expected Dumbledore to know 
this name; ...
.....
"You are mistaken," said Voldemort.
"Then if I were to go to the Hog's Head tonight, I would not find a 
group of them - Nott, Rosier, Mulciber, Dolohov - awaiting your 
return? ..."
There could be no doubt that Dumbledore's detailed knowledge of 
those with whom he was traveling was even less welcome to Voldemort; 
however, he rallied almost at once.
"You are omniscient as ever, Dumbledore."
"Oh no, merely friendly with the local barman," said Dumbledore...
(HBP pp.444-5, US)
*****************************************************************

What do you want to bet that Aberforth was the one who told Albus of 
the name "Death Eater"? So, 40 years ago Aberforth was already 
Albus' eyes and ears, picking up things and passing them on. 
Aberforth also became an Order member. With our information to date, 
it seems far more likely that Aberforth was the one who told Albus 
that Snape was a DE rather than the other way around. Canon does not 
state unequivocally that Aberforth knew Snape was a DE, but canon 
does tell us that Aberforth knows what to look for and has done it 
before. And Aberforth knows people.

Problem #3: Snape-the-DE is allowed to roam freely in the H.H.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Now let's turn to the "eavesdropping" incident itself. First,  
Steve/bboyminn from message # 159329:

> For example, ...the eavesdropper was discovered "only a
> short way into the prophesy and thrown from the building".
> All that is true but details are left out. In this
> example, Aberforth discovered Snape a short way into the
> Prophecy (fact), <snip>

Mike: I'm not conceding that Snape heard any of the prophesy. In my 
scenario, Snape heard nothing from Sibyll.

Steve/bboyminn:
> Snape was thrown from the building (fact), <snip>

Mike:
The question remains, whether Snape was ejected for eavesdropping or 
whether the ejecting was staged. But, go on.

Steve/bboyminn:
> that is all Harry needs to know at that point. In
> fact, given the animosity between them it is probably
> critical that Harry NOT know it was Snape, so Dumbledore
> leaves out the middle part, the part that was related to
> us by Trelawney in which, after a struggle, Snape is
> brought into the room, and Dumbledore suggests
> (supposition) to Aberforth that Snape be thrown out.

Mike:

As I have previously stated (message # 159319) you are correct that 
this reading works with the information at hand. I also credit you 
with pointing out that Dumbledore had 10 years to learn from Snape 
exactly what he overheard and what he told Voldemort. But my main 
argument does not go away with the acknowledgement of this reading.

Before I get there, another couple of questions needs answering:

>From message # 159034, montims:
I've missed something. Why was Snape there at all? OK, he was 
following DD around, and spying for LV. OK, he was told by LV to get 
a job at Hogwarts, and maybe this didn't displease him. But why, 
actually, was he listening (or trying to listen) to DD interviewing 
Sybill?

Mike:
To ask Janette's question slightly differently: Once Snape realized 
that this was an interview for a teaching post, why would he bother 
to continue eavesdropping? He would be in a compromising position in 
the hallway, not worth the risk to continue eavesdropping on a 
teacher's interview. I hope you don't expect me to believe that he 
first started eavesdropping at the start of the prophesy. Nice try, 
but not buying it <g>. 

Problem #4: Snape continues to eavesdrop for no apparent reason 
while putting himself in a compromising position.

Then after the eavesdropping incident is over.

>From message # 159701, Nikkalmati:
Query: Why would DD allow SS to walk out of the Hog's Head with that
information? He hired ST as Divination teacher to protect her from 
LV, so he realized the importance of the prophecy. Aberforth had SS 
by the collar. Why would DD let him go? I suspect SS and DD reached 
an understanding on that night.

Mike: I think the deal was struck beforehand, but, nonetheless, 
Nikkajmati's question/problem stands.

Problem #5: Dumbledore just lets Snape go after the eavesdropping 
incident, despite the fact that Aberforth has him "collared".

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Finally, to my main problem with believing the "eavesdropping" 
scenario. I hold my ground on Dumbledore's and Sibyll's differing 
versions. I still want to know why Dumbledore didn't say, "the 
eavesdropper was discovered part way into the prophesy and 
*PREVENTED* from hearing the rest." If Snape was indeed still 
working for Voldemort at the time, then this is a more accurate 
version of events and matches Sibyll's version. There is no conflict 
between stories and whether Snape was thrown from the building 
afterward becomes immaterial.

Steve has said that Dumbledore was just being conversational with 
Harry. I do not buy this. Dumbledore has had 15 years to decide how 
he was going to explain the "eavesdropper" to Harry. And he has to 
explain it without a hint that Snape was involved. Add to that, the 
prophesy and how much of it was released is one of the pillars the 
whole series rests upon. The idea that Dumbledore's words used and 
scenario proposed has not been thought out in advance would be very 
much OOC for Dumbledore.

Dumbledore also has to deal with the wild card: Sibyll Trelawney.  
Dumbledore is going to have to tell Sibyll what's going on and he 
can't rely on her to keep her mouth shut. Like Red Hen said, Sibyll 
is a barfly from a long way back and she's probably going straight 
down to the bar to celebrate her new job, and she'll want to tell 
the *whole* story.

This forces Dumbledore to go with the *likely story* that Snape was 
eavesdropping and thrown from the building. Eventually, Dumbledore 
knows he will have to explain the *whole* story to Harry. But in the 
mean time only he and Snape (and maybe Abe) even know about the 
prophesy, until Snape tells LV. The cover story can never include 
anything about the prophesy until Dumbledore is ready to tell Harry. 
When that time comes, Dumbledore choses to continue with the same 
*likely story*. The only addition is to include *when* the 
eavesdropper was discovered. 

Stories are hard to keep track of, if they change. This is the cover 
story that Snape and Dumbledore have been using for 15 years and 
there is no reason to change it for Harry. Or rather, Dumbledore can 
see a danger if he alters the cover story that Snape is relying 
upon.  That means that the best Dumbledore can do is hope that 
Sibyll never gets to telling the story in front of Harry, after 
Harry has been told about the prophesy. Just bad luck, because that 
is what happens.

vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv

If I believe Dumbledore is lying to Harry, I must have a version 
that I believe, right? Well, I do. Here's my version:

Dumbledore didn't even close the door fully when he was in the room 
interviewing Sibyll, he's a gentleman, you don't go to a stange 
woman's room above the bar and close the door. He turned to leave. 
When he was almost to the door, Sibyll starts into the prophesy. 
Dumbledore stops and listens, when Sibyll finishes, Dumbledore hits 
her with a stupefy, or the like, before she returns to normal. He 
summons Snape and Aberforth upstairs from the bar and tells them to 
make some noise in the hallway then bust into the room with the 
story that this guy was eavesdropping. Dumbledore goes back into the 
room and performs the counter-curse which revives Sibyll so she can 
see Snape and Aberforth. Then Aberforth hustles Snape downstairs and 
ejects him from the bar. In the mean time, Dumbledore tells Sibyll 
that Snape is also seeking a job and was probably looking for 
pointers on interviewing. After Dumbledore tells Sibyll that she has 
the job, he excuses himself, goes down the back way and meets up 
with Snape and maybe Abe. Dumbledore tells Snape which words to tell 
Voldemort and sends him off.

Now, Sibyll has the eavesdropping story but she is unaware of the 
time loss. Any of the lowlifes in the bar would have seen Aberforth 
throw Snape from the bar so, in case Voldemort checks up on that 
part, it will be confirmed. And later when Sibyll is downstairs 
drinking and celebrating, she tells the rest of the lowlifes that 
Snape was eavesdropping. Now you have a real tight story for 
Voldemort with all the witnesses confirming that Snape was thrown 
from the bar for eavesdropping on Dumbledore and Sibyll.

Like I said above, I don't think Dumbledore ever expected Harry to 
hear Sibyll's version, so I think he felt the version he told Harry 
was safe from questioning. 

Why does Dumbledore lie to Harry after Harry finds out it was Snape? 
Partly because Dumbledore needs Harry to still trust him (DD). He is 
not through with Harry's lessons and they are about to set out on a 
perilous mission. I'm sure part of Dumbledore's pause (on HBP p.549) 
before he answered Harry was thinking, "Can I afford to get Harry 
pissed off at me right now?" Of course the answer is no, the true 
story will have to wait. Although Dumbledore knew he was dying, I'm 
not so sure that he thought he would be killed that night.

The second reason why he doesn't tell Harry the truth is that he 
knows that Snape is going to go into deep cover soon, as LV's most 
faithful servant. Dumbledore doesn't trust Harry with Snape's 
safety, never has. Dumbledore is afraid that if he tells Harry the 
truth about Snape that it won't do any good towards repairing their 
relationship and Harry might reveal that information to the wrong 
person. There could still be a spy in the Order, or Harry might 
react wrongly to Snape in the future which could tip off another DE 
or Voldemort himself. Dumbledore wants Harry to spread the word that 
Snape is still a loyal DE and furthermore wants any word that might 
leak out about the prophesy to confirm that it was Snape who 
overheard it, because that matches Snape's cover story from way 
back. And his supposed remorse over Lilly's and James' deaths is 
part of that cover story. He has to have taken some part in their 
death's for that part of the cover story to work. 

The reason Snape turned must be another post, another time.

Mike