Dumbledore does Lie-Part II, Snape Turned

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 159877

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Neri" <nkafkafi at ...> wrote:
>
> > Mike previously:
> > <snip> 
> > Problem #1: Dumbledore is allowing Snape (LV's spy) to tail him.
> > 
> 
> Neri:
> We don't know that Snape indeed tried to tail Dumbledore. I think  
> he was probably subtler than Dawlish. For all we know, Snape may  
> have just rented a room in the Hog's Head and applied for a post  
> at Hogwarts, exactly as Trelawney did. His mission seems to have  
> been long-term infiltration rather than tailing.

Mike now:
Well, I suppose it could all have been a coincidence, that's 
possible. But as far as Dawlish vs. Snape, Dawlish is a trained 
Auror, training that included stealth per Tonks. I would give his 
tailing ability the nod over a 20-year-old untrained Snape.

 
> > Mike previously: 
> > Problem #3: Snape-the-DE is allowed to roam freely in the H.H.
> > 
> 
> Neri:
> Why do you assume that Dumbledore knows Snape is a DE at this  
> time? I doubt Voldemort would have sent Snape to spy at Hogwarts  
> in the first place if he had any reason to think Dumbledore  
> already knows what Snape is.

Mike:
I guess I have more confidence in Dumbledore's power of obvervation. 
He didn't seem to have any problem ascertaining that the fab four 
that followed Voldemort to the Hog's Head were DEs. He watched Snape 
for seven years (at least), we know he had at least one up close and 
personal talk with him following the werewolf caper. We see that he 
can identify the budding DE in Draco (he recognized Draco's 
tendencies in PS/SS and identified him as Harry's antagonist then). 
Do you doubt that Dumbledore is very much aware of Draco's DE 
leanings by year six? As well as who Draco hangs with and their 
tendencies. How about Lucius, Bella and the others when they were in 
school and who hung around with them (read: Snape)? Besides, the 
portrayal we get of Dumbledore throughout the book is one of almost 
omniscience, I can easily see Dumbledore identifying Snape. Or, more 
correctly, I would be astounded if Dumbledore had not made the 
connection, wouldn't you?

As to Voldemort assigning Snape; 20 years before Voldemort openly 
walked into Hogwarts for a meeting with Dumbledore. I'm sure he is 
more secretive himself 20 years later, however many of his Death 
Eaters are operating in the open these days even though there may be 
suspicions about them. Also, like I said above, I think Dumbledore 
could easily determine where any other's loyalties lie and I believe 
Voldemort would be well aware of this ability. If Voldemort had to 
limit himself to who Dumbledore didn't suspect, well, the list would 
be extremely limited. Add on Legilimency and Dumbledore's wizarding 
prowess, I think you might have to concede this point. <g>
 
****[This is extremely hard; to put aside what I believe happened, 
in order to put myself in your shoes, to then propose what might 
have happened in that scenario when I don't believe that happened in 
the first place!]****
 

> > Mike previously:
> > 
> > Now, I invite anyone to answer this question:
> > 
> > Why doesn't Dumbledore hit Snape with an "Obliviate" and erase 
> > any memory of the prophesy from Snape?
> >
> 
> Neri:
> Dumbledore may not know at this point that Snape is a DE. Snape 
> has a good cover story for listening at the door: he is   
> interested in a post himself and looking for tips (it may even be  
> true, in the sense that he needed to get a post in order to  
> infiltrate into Hogwarts, and therefore indeed attempted to get  
> these tips). <snip>

Mike:
I refer you to Carol's post, 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/159793

and my argument in the original post. I don't see Snape with a good 
cover story at all.


> Neri:
> This merits throwing out of the building, perhaps, 
> but not an Obliviate.

Mike:
Thrown from the building happened, in my scenario, as part of the 
Dumbledores' ruse. In the other scenario? I think anything the 
bartender wants to be offended at can get you thrown from the 
building. I get the impression patrons of the Hog's Head get treated 
slightly better than patrons of Borgin & Burkes. Besides, even 
Rosemerta throws someone out now and then.

See below for the Obliviate.



> Neri:
> Dumbledore probably doesn't know at this point how much Snape had 
> managed to hear of the prophecy, if he had heard anything at all.  
> It is possible that only when Snape "turned", perhaps months or  
> even more than a year after that, he told Dumbledore what he had 
> heard.

Mike:
This has been thoroughly hashed over, I shant bore you again.<g> 
Simply put, my theory does not rely on how much Snape heard.


> Neri:
> But most of all, at this point when Dumbledore hears the prophecy, 
> he has no way to know it's a true prophecy. He has already reached 
> the conclusion that Trelawney is a fraud. <snip>

Mike:
Ahh, but a 13 year old Harry recognized when Sibyll was not being 
Sibyll and cottoned on to her, that maybe, possibly, this was a real 
prophesy. I'm gonna guess that 10 times older Dumbledore might 
figure it out too.

> Neri:
> Her words don't include any information that he can verify at 
> this moment, except that he may know already (or not) that both 
> the Potters and the Longbottoms escaped Voldemort three times, 
> but this isn't much of a verification. Dumbledore may not even  
> know that Lily and/or Alice are pregnant, if they even *are* 
> already pregnant at this point. He surely doesn't know yet that 
> Neville and Harry are going to be born in the end of July. <snip>

Mike:
Snipping here to make a point. You are falling into the trap that 
JKR relies upon to keep us guessing, you're using the Harry-centric 
POV. At this point in time, Dumbledore neither knows nor cares to  
whom the prophesy might be referring. Leave this out of it and your 
argument is strengthened.


> Neri:
> So at this point the prophecy might be just worthless mumbo jumbo 
> to him. Dumbledore may think it's just not worth obliviating 
> someone who *might* be a DE because he *might* have heard some 
> part of something that *might* be important.

Mike:
Dumbledore thinks all prophesies are mumbo jumbo and illegitimate, 
isn't that the way you perceive his opinion of the whole field of 
Divination? I sure do. The problem with prophesies is always 
the "Macbeth syndrome", when someone who believes in the rot, acts 
on the rot. And this prophesy was about the Dark Lord.
 
****[( Arguing using the DD released scenario frame of mind)]****
  ****[(i.e. not my belief, doing that thing I said above)]****

Dumbledore absolutely cannot allow this prophesy to see the light of 
day, if there is any chance that Voldemort might act on it. And 
knowing Tom Riddle as well as anyone, Dumbledore is quite sure that 
he *will* act on it. Of course hindsight, being 20/20, I could say 
that canon backs up this. I won't. I will only claim that Dumbledore 
would not have wanted the prophesy released, regardless to whom it 
referred. Dumbledore *must* stop Snape at all costs. 

(He can't let him go and hope to track him, must stop Aberforth 
before he throws him from the building. Too much at stake and 
Dumbledore would know it. <nodding toward AD, that's your 1 & 3>)

Sixteen years later in the MoM, Dumbledore proved that he is still 
quick enough on his feet and in his mind to be able to react to a 
critical situation. I have no doubt that Dumbledore would feel that 
a prophesy about Voldemort, allowed to reach Voldemort, qualifies as 
a critical situation. Snape is under Aberforth's control, can't even 
defend himself. There is no reason for Dumbledore to not act 
proactively and preventively and Obliviate *any* piece of memory 
about the prophesy. 

(And, Occlumency is a defense against Legilimency. AFAWK and AFAMS 
{as far as makes sense} Occlumency does not work against 
an "Obliviate", setting aside whether a 20-year-old Snape could 
block Dumbledore. <smiles at AD, that's your 2>)


> Neri:
> My question is: what is your alternative theory? Do you propose  
> that Dumbledore just hears the prophecy, and in few moments,  
> before even knowing when (or if) Harry is going to be born,  
> before knowing if and how Voldemort is going to mark Harry,   
> before knowing that James and Lily are going to be killed, before  
> knowing Lily's sacrifice will protect Harry, before knowing  
> Voldemort would become vapor, Dumbledore already has a plan that  
> includes telling Voldemort the first part of the prophecy? So   
> what was this plan???

Mike, pausing to admire Neri's wordsmithing abilities. Even when I 
argue against your point, I love your writing. I tip my hat, sir!
...... OK, back to work.....

I'm not trying to pull a JKR, no really I'm not, but I am putting 
together a post that indirectly addresses this. I will say that I 
don't think Dumbledore had a true *plan* at this point in time, more 
of an oppurtunity that he decided to act on. I did say, in my main 
post, that I conceived of Dumbledore hitting Sibyll with a "Stupefy" 
before she regained her senses (and, no it doesn't hurt her. If you 
insist, a sleeping charm, how's that). This would give Albus, 
Aberforth and Snape time to plan their deception and give Albus 
*some* time to project this course of action into the future.

I just finished arguing why Dumbledore wouldn't let Snape leave the 
Hog's Head with the prophesy in His Head, when my position is that 
Dumbledore was the one who orchestrated the prophesy release. Now 
it's your turn, Neri. You try arguing why Dumbledore would want the 
prophesy released, when you believe the opposite. <eg>

 
> Neri:
> If your theory is correct then Dumbledore's words "I cared more 
> for your happiness than your knowing the truth" are going to sound 
> extremely ironic, because he *wasn't* telling Harry the truth when 
> he said that. He was lying to him. But maybe this is what is 
> called "ironic juxtaposition"? <g>

Mike:
Actually, I think this is Dumbledore admitting that he fell into the 
*trap* that he told himself he "must avoid". The "truth" he is 
referring to there is the prophesy, not who heard it or how. So 
maybe it's "bitter irony" that he ended up loving the boy he marked 
for a life of turmoil, before he was born.