Dumbledore does Lie-Part II, Snape Turned

[Neri]

No: HPFGUIDX 160019

> Carol responds:
> I agree with you about Dumbledore's not being omniscient, but I have
> to disagree here. The whole point of Snape's being a "superb
> Occlumens" able to lie to voldemort without detection is that LV
> *doesn't know* that snape is an Occlumens. If he did, Snape would be
> dead. (Imagine snape trying to practice easily detected Occlumency
> like Draco's on Voldemort. Very, very bad move.)
> 

Neri:
So, are you suggesting that Voldemort sent to Dumbledore a spy whom 
he thinks can't lie to Dumbledore? Sounds like a rather stupid thing 
to do, even for Voldy.

Besides, if you're right about this then Dumbledore really should 
have told Lupin to stop informing everybody that Snape is a "superb 
Occlumens", because if this leaks to Voldy then Snape is a dead man.

But I suspect that it's not such a big secret and Voldemort had known 
about it for a long time.


> Carol responds:
> On the contrary, we do have reason to doubt Trelawney's story simply
> because it doesn't match well with Dumbledore's. One or the other is
> incorrect; both are incomplete, but it's the parts we do have that
> don't match, as both Mike and I have pointed out.

Neri:
As several other members pointed out, there isn't a substantial 
disagreement between Trelawney's and Dumbledore's stories. They are 
just told from different points of views in different contexts. And 
the part about Snape looking for a job at Hogwarts does match. 
Dumbledore tells us that Snape was still spying for Voldemort at that 
time, Snape boasts he has 16 years worth information on Dumbledore, 
Bellatrix had known for some time that Snape was sent to Hogwarts by 
Voldemort to spy on Dumbledore, and Trelawney says Snape was looking 
for a job, apparently at Hogwarts. A rather good match of stories 
from very different sources.


> Carol:
> Note that Trelawney has been working at Hogwarts, by her own 
account,
> "almost sixteen years," whereas Snape has been working there for
> fourteen. Clearly, she was not hired at the usual time. She was 
hired
> on a wet, cold evening, which does not fit the usual hiring date of
> the summer between terms, nor does her "almost" indicate that she 
was
> hired before the term started.

Neri:
I was informed by a British member of the list that Scotland has 
plenty of cold, wet nights in the summer too. Trelawney's "almost 
sixteen years" suggests she was *hired* after the beginning of the 
school year, but not necessarily that she told Dumbledore the 
prophecy after the beginning of the school year, because we don't 
have any canon that she was hired immediately after that night. The 
canon is inconclusive here. Concluding from it that Snape didn't have 
a post to apply for at that time is a rather long shot.  


> Carol:
> <snip> Her description and the
> weather fit perfectly with a date of Halloween for the Prophecy
> (Harry's presumed conception date). If he hasn't yet been conceived,
> as would be the case if she had applied at the usual date or even in
> September or most of October, the statement that "the one who can
> defeat the Dark Lord approaches" makes no sense.

Neri:
Strange. It does make sense to me.

You have a speculation that the "cold, wet night" was Halloween. It's 
a nice speculation and I actually like it. However, it's still a 
speculation based on rather inconclusive canon. I was pointing out to 
Mike that concluding from such a speculation that Snape didn't have a 
post at Hogwarts to apply for at that time is a very long shot. 
That's all. The logical assumption is that a person like Snape would 
take care to have a sound cover story before he starts spying on a 
person like Dumbledore.


> Carol:
> So she must be applying at an unusual time for a sudden vacancy. 
There
> is no reason for young Snape to be applying at this time (the DADA
> positions always become vacant near the end of the year, usually in
> June) and Slughorn was still Potions master.

Neri:
The DADA positions became vacant near the end of the year *in the six 
years we have seen*. That is, if you don't count the real Moody, who 
accepted the DADA post but never got to do much teaching. I am not 
familiar with any reason why the jinx can't operate already in the 
beginning of the year, as it apparently did with Moody. Even assuming 
the DADA post wasn't open, it still doesn't mean the Astronomy post 
or the Ancient Runes post weren't open, or that Dumbledore didn't 
need a replacement teacher because Slughorn got ill, or whatever. You 
are concluding a lot from very little.


> Carol:
> I think that Snape's
> listening in to get hints for job interviews is Trelawney's own
> after-the-fact explanation. She seems to be forgetting that he was 
not
>  hired the following fall (the term that started a month after 
Harry's
> birth) but the fall after that. Maybe young Snape tried and "failed"
> to get a job as DADA teacher at that point (DD would not have given
> his own spy the cursed DADA position), but he was not actually hired
> for the uncursed Potions position until nearly two years after
> Trelawney began teaching.
> 

Neri:
Isn't this my point exactly? The fact that two years later Snape 
convinced Dumbledore to give him a post does not preclude in any way 
that he was applying for a post (doesn't matter much which) at the 
time of the prophecy as a part of his cover story for spying after 
Dumbledore. 


Neri