Cabinet FIRST! One last time. (Long--sorry!)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 157768

Sydney wrote:
> 
> What I find so strange about this argument, is that the distinction
> between Narcissa's and Snape's and Draco's and everyone-else-in-a
> position-to-give-us-exposition-version, and your version, is so
> slight.  Of course we should be suspicious of things not being as they
> seem in these books.  JKR's entire strategy of plotting is based
> around there being a point in the books where she 'flips', and what
> happened is something completely different from what we thought.  
>
Carol responds:
As several people have pointed out, HBP is the first half of the final
book. And, yes, her plotting strategy often "flips" what we think is
true--for example, what happened on the tower. You and I both expect a
reversal on that one and a revelation about Snape's true motivations.

What follows is my canon-based interpretation of "Spinner's End,"
which differs rather radically from that of the three or four people
who claim that they *know* Voldemort's motivation. Since we're never
inside voldemort's head, I think that's too bold a claim.

"Spinner's End" is part of that mystery and contains a number of
unanswered questions, including Snape's motivation for taking the UV,
whether he's bluffing, how much of his story to Bellatrix is true and
how much is a web of half-truths spun to make him seem like a loyal
DE. You're right that the chapter is told from the outside. we can't
see into any of their minds. We don't know how much they know. And we
don't know Voldemort's motivations, either. He isn't present, and the
three adults--Narcissa, Snape, and Bellatrix--are all *assuming* that
they know his motivations and their assumptions shape their actions. 

It's highly unlikely that any of them were present when Voldemort gave
Draco his assignment. Certainly Snape wasn't (he doesn't know about
the Vanishing Cabinet and Draco later refuses to tell him the plan,
and Narcissa clearly knows only two things: that Voldemort "chose"
Draco (assigned him the task that must not be named) and that she's
not allowed to talk about it. Voldemort operates in secret and he
tells his DEs only what he thinks they need to know. (He told Lucius
how the diary operated but not that it was a Horcrux, for example.)
Narcissa is not even a DE, only the wife of a DE he's unhappy with.
He's not going to tell her anything. Snape neither confirms nor denies
her fears. He may suspect that she's right, but he apparently doesn't
know.

Narcissa *assumes* ("Then I'm right!") that Voldemort is punishing
Lucius by giving Draco an assignment that, in her view, is doomed to
fail, but she doesn't know about the Vanishing Cabinet, either. She is
a hysterical mother guessing the Dark Lord's motivation based on her
own darkest fears (shades of Mrs. Weasley's Boggart). She may well be
right, but we don't know that. We're never shown the initial encounter
between Draco and Voldemort. LV may very well want to have his cake
and eat it, too--a plan involving the DEs and the Vanishing Cabinet
that could result in the death of the feared and hated Dumbledore, or,
if it fails, will result in the murder of Lucius Malfoy's son as
punishment for his failure. It seems unlikely to me that revenge on
Malfoy would take precedence over a higher priority, the death of "the
only one he ever feared."

Snape, too, is in the dark. Assuming that he's not bluffing, he knows
only that Voldemort has assigned Draco the task of killing Dumbledore.
Voldemort is hardly going to tell a man he knows to be a friend of the
Malfoys and the HoH of their son that his goal is to punish Draco by
giving him a suicide mission. Snape knows that Voldemort is angry with
Lucius, but he also knows that Voldemort wants Dumbledore dead
(especially now, after the defeat in the MoM), and he suspects that
Voldemort "intends [him] to do it in the end." Like Narcissa, he
underestimates Draco's resourcefulness and considers it "unlikely"
that he'll succeed in killing Dumbledore (whose greatness as a wizard
he, unlike Bellatrix, does not underestimate). Unlike Narcissa (and
possibly Voldemort), he's under no delusions that Dumbledore would
murder Draco if Draco tried to kill him, but he's well aware that
Voldemort is merciless to those who fail him. He stands at the window
putting it all together based on the information available to him.
Perhaps he's moved by Narcissa's tears. Perhaps he's seen the vision
of a murdered Draco behind those tear-filled blue eyes. Perhaps he's
figuring out what Dumbledore would want him to do. At this point, he
makes his first tentative offer to help Draco--not to do the deed for
him, but to watch over him and protect him, as Narcissa correctly
infers from his words. It seems to me, after days of thinking about
this thread, that perhaps we have an answer to the mystery of why
Snape agreed to the UV. Quite simply and canonically, he's putting his
life on the line to protect Draco. (That third provision, which was
not part of her original proposal, draws him into the trap. But he
can't know at this point how trapped he is because he doesn't know
about the Vanishing Cabinet plan, which will give Draco a real chance
for success. Or would if the death threats to himself and his family
and his own experience with Sectumsempra hadn't removed the edge from
his desire to murder Dumbledore, and Dumbledore's understanding and
mercy hadn't made it impossible to kill him.)

What Bella knows is harder to guess. Her source of information *seems*
to be Draco. She shares his view that the assignment is an "honor" (no
doubt what Voldemort told Draco--the old "honored above all others"
line). And she doesn't seem to share Narcissa's view that it's a
suicide mission. Glittering fanatic that she is, she wants Draco to
succeed. Her idea of "helping" Draco consists of thwarting Snape by
teaching Draco Occlumency and (IMO) undermining his credibility by
telling Draco that Snape wants to "steal his glory." (Where else would
Draco get that "childish" idea but from Bellatrix, who knows about all
three provisions of the Unbreakable Vow?)

Whether any of the three are correct in their assumptions is
irrelevant. What matters is that the assumptions, along with Snape's
and Narcissa's ignorance of Draco's plan, shapes their actions in
"Spinner's End," with tragic consequences for Snape and Dumbledore.

Carol, who was going to cite the scene on the Hogwarts Express as
evidence that Draco says *nothing* about Voldemort "approaching" or
"choosing" him but couldn't fit it into this post