Cabinet FIRST! One last time. (Long--sorry!)

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 157800

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "horridporrid03" wrote:
> Betsy Hp:
> But here's the thing: Who *does* know about the cabinet at this 
> time?  Seriously, as per canon, does anyone, including Draco have 
> any idea about using the cabinets?
> 
> <snipped to below>
>
> I've brought it up before, and it's been routinely ignored, but if 
> Voldemort was aware of the cabinets (heck if Draco had thought  
> this idea up) *why* would he wait so long, why would Voldemort  
> allow him to wait so long, to confirm that the other cabinet is  
> available and the cabinet in Hogwarts is even fixable? <snip>

Mike:
I'm going to answer your question with some questions.<eg> Leave 
JKR's storytelling aside, instead view it from the character's 
perspective, just as you have above. 

1) Why does Voldemort wait an entire year and hinge his plan on a 
bizarre (from an objective PoV) plot to get Harry's blood for his 
rebirthing? Why not tell Crouch!Moody to turn anything into a 
portkey and get it over with?

One could probably point out ancilliary benefits, which would also 
probably include speculation on our part. Was LV looking for maximum 
impact by taking Harry right out of the TWT? And what, stay in his 
weak Baby!Mort form, delaying his *Return* for most of a year for a 
dubious impact.

2) If LV becomes aware that he can reverse the psychic connection 
with Harry at Christmastime, that is plant a story into Harry's 
mind, why wait another six months to finally implement a plan?

You may say he waited for the DE Azkaban breakout. -Happened early 
to mid January. How about, he was still trying to get others (Bode, 
Podmore) to retrieve it, that is until Rookwood set him straight. -
Happened the 23rd of Feb (why did Rookwood wait so long?). So LV 
still waits 4 months. Don't have anything in canon that LV either 
knew about Harry's Occlumency nor whether it really did "soften him 
up" like Ron says. In any case those ended mid April.

We all know how poorly JKR handles timelines and therefore hanging 
any argument on a timeline is iffy at best. But if we're speaking 
about Voldemort's motivations and rational thought and trying to tie 
that to a timeline, well, I'll just say that next step could be a 
doozy. <eg> But that does bring up another point. You have presented 
LV as irrational in your argument against cabinet first, yet you 
want him to have acted rationally in the checking_up_on_the_cabinets 
timeline. Besides, how long has that cabinet been in B&B's? Maybe 
waiting three weeks doesn't seem irrational if the cabinet has been 
there since Riddle was an employee. We know it's been there for at 
least 4 years.

> Betsy Hp (unceremoniously ripped from above):
> Because again, there is *no* canon suggesting that this plan has 
> occured to Draco yet. And there's massive canon to suggest that it
> hasn't.  Certainly canon weighs very heavily *against* Voldemort 
> being aware of this plan even if Draco has thought of it already.

Mike:
Here is where I disagree with both your canon support and your 
analysis, sorry. When Draco claims that he was the only one who 
understood the implications of Montague's story, it *strongly* 
suggests that "everyone" heard this story during Draco's fifth year. 
Even if you move this to after the train ride home, it still comes 
before meeting LV. Otherwise, you are suggesting that after Draco 
gets his *suicide mission*, he is still out socializing with his 
Slytherin pals swapping stories. Besides, if Montague is supposedly 
still incoherant after three months (mid-April to mid-July), why 
does he miraculously recover over the next few weeks? Don't you see 
that it becomes far more likely that Draco knows about the cabinets 
*before* he is summoned by LV?

As to whether Voldemort knew about the cabinets, umm Betsy, you were 
the one who convinced me he did. I'll get there in a bit. First 
let's examine some canon. In HBP, Ch 15, Draco says to Snape:

"It's my job, he gave it to me and I'm doing it, I've got a plan and 
it's going to work, it's just taking a bit longer than I thought it 
would".

I propose there is an alternate or dual meanings to the words "job" 
and "plan". We have readily assumed, job = kill_Dumbledore and plan 
= fix the cabinet. What if instead or also they mean, job = 
fix_the_cabinet and plan = how_to_fix_the_cabinet. Remember, we 
don't know what's going on at this point but Draco does. 

When I thought that cabinet repair guy was not important, you and 
others disavowed me of this notion. You explained that fixing the 
cabinet was intrinsic in Draco's mind to his success. Now I ask, if 
one of the jobs Draco was assigned by LV *was* to fix the cabinet, 
would that make it less or more intrinsic? 

Then what about Draco's 2 feeble attempts with the necklace and the 
mead? If Draco was only told that getting DEs in was to help 
complete his task, there's no conflict in his mind. Better yet, what 
if LV used words like 'The DEs will infiltrate to ensure the 
intended execution is accomplished'. Nice double meaning or an 
alternate meaning than what Draco would interpret. Sorta like, "one 
that many of my followers would give their right hands to perform".

Back to canon. Did LV assign Draco DE support? Draco told Snape that 
he's "got other people on my side, better people". He threatens 
Borgin with Greyback. Bluffing? Maybe, but Greyback was in on the 
plan in the end, wasn't he? Draco said he didn't know "he was going 
to come"; sounds to me like he thought Fenrir was only included to 
strong arm Borgin. What about other DEs? Does anybody think Fenrir 
was enough for Draco to think he had "better people"? Draco is 
suppose to bring them in while DD is out, he confirmed that on the 
tower. Wouldn't they have to be prepositioned or at least at Draco's 
beck and call to make this happen? Canon strongly suggests that LV 
*had* assigned Draco some DE support.

Since LV had assigned DEs to Draco, was the entire plan to just get 
Draco killed? Is it logical from LV's perspective to assigned Draco 
some DEs to carry out the *plan* if LV's only *plan* was to get 
Draco killed? (Told you I'd get there <g>). Betsy explained to me a 
while back that this was planned as a terrorist action.(In a 
previous post I inadvertantly said it was Draco's idea. In my zeal 
to assign proper attribution to Betsy, I merged two sentences, my 
bad, sorry Betsy <sheepish grin>) Of course, you said it was 
Voldemort's plan. But in order to pull off a terrorist action,  
Voldemort would have to be aware of *some* method to secretly 
infiltrate DEs into Hogwarts. If LV is not aware of *some* 
infiltration method, no terrorist action. No terrorist action, why 
assign Draco DE support?

So what do we have?
1. Draco knew about the cabinets before the LV summons. Most logical 
canon interpretation.
2. LV assigned DEs/ally to infiltrate Hogwarts. Canon.
Logical extrapolations:
3. LV was informed of some method of secret infiltration.
4. LV assigned DEs to be available to Draco, at least some from the 
beginning.
Logical Interpretation:
5. Draco told LV about the cabinets at the beginning.

How about a compromise? LV summoned Draco and in that meeting Draco 
tells LV about the cabinets. LV assigns Draco the job of killing DD 
and includes the job of fixing the cabinet to infiltrate some DEs. 
LV tells Draco they are coming to affect an ambush when all along LV 
is planning a terrorist action. He tells the DEs to ensure Draco 
gets his shot at killing DD figuring on Draco getting killed 
instead. But if DD doesn't kill Draco or Draco doesn't kill DD, then 
they are to kill both themselves.

Have fun tearing this one apart :D
Mike