Cabinet first

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 157806

> >>Carol:
> <snip>
> No one on the cabinet side of the argument has ever presented that
> idea as proven.

Betsy Hp:
Steve did at the very beginning.  That's what got this whole train 
moving.  And then there was the whole thing of both views being 
equal.  That's what caused the train to pick up speed.

> >>Carol:
> Compatible with canon, yes. But we haven't called it
> "canon." It is only a possibility that of course can't be proven, 
> any more than your side can show that it didn't happen.

Betsy Hp:
Frankly, I just haven't seen any evidence of compatibility.  Sure, 
you can shoehorn it in.  Just as Magpie can shoehorn the "Ginny used 
the Diary to catch Harry's eye" theory into CoS.  But since the 
cabinet theory doesn't have anything in canon that actually suggests 
it's happening I don't see it as backed by canon.

It's hard to prove a negative, but that we've pointed out time and 
again that what occurs on the printed page is probably... well, what 
occurred, I feel like we have done our jobs. Though obviously you 
disagree. (Which is probably why no one's backing down on this. <g>)


> >>Carol:
> I do think, and only think, that Voldemort must have known about   
> the cabinets from the beginning.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Actually, I agree with that.  Only I see the beginning of the 
cabinet idea as occurring *after* "Draco's Detour" when Draco 
figured out that his kooky idea was actually viable.

I just don't think Voldemort hung his hat on the cabinet thing.  
>From everything HBP tells us it seems like the Hogwarts stuff is 
just a side thing for Voldemort.  A diversion, not his big bad, "I 
will rule the UNIVERSE" plan of giant complication.  (Which explains 
it's simplicity, actually.)

> >>Carol:
> Let me politely ask you for the canon you mentioned about Voldemort
> approaching Draco. I searched for it and couldn't find it.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
You did find it.  (Thank goodness, since I'm too lazy to pull out 
the books right now -- or turn on a light for that matter.)  It's 
right here:

> >>Carol:
> <snip of Draco being all coy with his super special status>
> And Draco responds, quietly this time: "I've just said, haven't I?
> Maybe he doesn't care if I'm qualified. Maybe the job he wants me 
> to do isn't something that you need to be qualified for" (152).

Betsy Hp:
Draco's saying that Voldemort gave him a job, a "job *he wants me* 
to do", not I came up with something brilliant no one else thought 
of and Voldemort agrees.  Which, if Draco had been the one to go to 
Voldemort and float a plan, I'm pretty confident he'd have hinted as 
much to his friends.  Look at how proud he was to tell Dumbledore 
all about it on the Tower.

> >>Carol:
> <snip>
> If the cabinet isn't important, at least as central as the "suicide
> mission" idea that motivates the *adults* in "Spinner's End," why 
> is so much page time devoted to it?
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Because it *is* so darn important to Draco. It's his attempt to 
bypass the "suicide" part of the "suicide mission" he's been 
assigned.

No one's saying the cabinets aren't important.  We're just arguing 
about who they're important to, and why and when they became 
important.

(In regards to the other questions you ask: I agree with Magpie
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/157799 )

> >>Betsy Hp:
> > <snip>
> > I've brought it up before, and it's been routinely ignored, but 
> > if Voldemort was aware of the cabinets (heck if Draco had thought
> > this idea up) *why* would he wait so long, why would Voldemort
> > allow him to wait so long, to confirm that the other cabinet is
> > available and the cabinet in Hogwarts is even fixable? <snip>

> >>Mike:
> I'm going to answer your question with some questions.<eg>
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Fire away! <g>

> >>Mike:
> 1) Why does Voldemort wait an entire year and hinge his plan on a
> bizarre (from an objective PoV) plot to get Harry's blood for his
> rebirthing? Why not tell Crouch!Moody to turn anything into a
> portkey and get it over with?
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Because Voldemort suffers from evil-villain-itis and needs to have 
hugely complicated plans to compensate for his tiny little, erm... 
nose.  Which is why the complicated and drawn-out "torture the 
Malfoys" plan is so very in character.

Also, please note: Crouch!Moody doesn't show up at Hogwarts until 
*after* the real Moody has been kidnapped and safely secured.  
Voldemort does at least try and have his ducks in a row before he 
puts his plans into action.

> >>Mike:
> 2) If LV becomes aware that he can reverse the psychic connection
> with Harry at Christmastime, that is plant a story into Harry's
> mind, why wait another six months to finally implement a plan?
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
See above.  And again, Voldemort doesn't send his "I've kidnapped 
you're dearest Sirius... ooh, I'm going to torture him now..." 
message until *after* he's established Harry will actually receive 
same.

> >>Mike:
> We all know how poorly JKR handles timelines and therefore hanging
> any argument on a timeline is iffy at best. 
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
True.  So why not stick with the simple idea that Draco thought up 
the cabinet plan shortly before he started implementing the cabinet 
plan?  No need for messy timeline juggling.

> >>Mike:
> But that does bring up another point. You have presented
> LV as irrational in your argument against cabinet first, yet you
> want him to have acted rationally in the                          
> checking_up_on_the_cabinets timeline. 
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Have I?  I think Voldemort is very rational within his worldview.  
His worldview is irrational, but he's pretty consistant in it.  And 
Voldemort wouldn't start a plan until he got the necessary parts all 
lined up.

Though I also have issue with Draco going to Voldemort with an idea 
*before* he's checked to make sure the idea is semi-sound.  Swing by 
Knockturn Alley before hitting Voldemort's. 

> >>Mike:
> Here is where I disagree with both your canon support and your
> analysis, sorry. When Draco claims that he was the only one who
> understood the implications of Montague's story, it *strongly*
> suggests that "everyone" heard this story during Draco's fifth     
> year.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
Personally, I like the over-the-summer-hols idea. But okay, let's go 
with everyone hears the story at Hogwarts.  At this point there 
isn't really any reason for Draco to be worrying about how to get 
Death Eaters into Hogwarts.  So I don't see any reason to think 
Draco had his "aha" moment at this time (and plenty of reasons to 
think that he didn't).

> So what do we have?
> 1. Draco knew about the cabinets before the LV summons. Most       
> logical canon interpretation.

Betsy Hp:
Actually, I'd call that the least logical canon interpertation 
because we don't see Draco checking on the viability of the cabinets 
until much later.  So the most logical canon interpertation is that 
Draco has his cabinet idea *after* Voldemort summons him.

Which leads to:

> >>Mike:
> 2. LV assigned DEs/ally to infiltrate Hogwarts. Canon.

Betsy Hp:
Right.  Only this happens at some point *after* "Draco's Detour". 
(Most logical conclusion per canon.)

> >>Mike:
> Logical extrapolations:
> 3. LV was informed of some method of secret infiltration.

Betsy Hp:
Well, yeah.  No one's denying that.

> >>Mike:
> 4. LV assigned DEs to be available to Draco, at least some from the
> beginning.

Betsy Hp:
I'm pretty sure Bellatrix was either assigned or volunteered to 
train Draco.  He had to learn the Unforgivables from someone, and 
who better to instill that "glory" and "Snape's out to steal it" 
crap in Draco's head?  But I seriously doubt Voldemort assigned 
anyone else to Draco at this time.  For one, he doesn't reference a 
team when talking to Snape.  For another, neither the mead nor the 
necklace required a team assist.  

> >>Mike:
> Logical Interpretation:
> 5. Draco told LV about the cabinets at the beginning.

Betsy Hp:
Okay, I'm not following the leap.  Why does Voldemort need to know 
about the cabinets before Spinner's End in order to have some Death 
Eaters standing by at the end of the school year?  Surely it doesn't 
take him *that* long to call a crew together.

I do think Draco (or Bellatrix) told Voldemort about the cabinet 
plan shortly after Draco realized it was a workable plan.  But that 
occurs after "Draco's Detour".  I just don't see anything that 
suggest the idea was there before "Spinner's End".

> >>Mike:
> How about a compromise? LV summoned Draco and in that meeting Draco
> tells LV about the cabinets.

Betsy Hp:
I will say this idea is a bit more palatable than the "Draco 
approached Voldemort" theory, though there's still the problem of 
Draco putting a plan forward before he checks to see if it's even 
viable.

Also, I don't think Draco would have been that quick on his feet, 
frankly. There's the awe and terror of facing Voldemort (assuming 
this was an actual face to face and not a written order or 
something) and there's the whole holy-crap-ness of the task he gets 
assigned.  Even if the cabinet idea popped into his head, I'm not 
sure Draco would have been able to articulate it.

So yeah, this is a tiny bit better... but I'm still not buying it. 
<g>

> >>Mike:
> LV assigns Draco the job of killing DD and includes the job of     
> fixing the cabinet to infiltrate some DEs.
> <snip>

Betsy Hp:
The problem with this idea is the mead and the necklace.  If either 
had worked Dumbledore would have died *way* before Death Eaters 
could invade.

So I think the cabinets really were Draco's baby.  He knew that what 
Voldemort wanted was a dead Dumbledre (method of your choice); his 
best and favorite and most comfortable plan was the cabinets (nicely 
removed from actually killing); Voldemort was open to the chance to 
wreak havoc if it was presented to him, but it wasn't really any 
biggie to him.  That's the only way to explain that when Draco 
panicked just before Christmas break he made a flailing attempt to 
kill Dumbledore, not fix the cabinets (or smuggle Death Eaters in to 
Hogwarts in an as equally desperate way).

Betsy Hp (who did enjoy herself, thank you <g>)