The death of Emmeline Vance (WAS: Re: Snape the Spy )

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 167821

> zgirnius:
> I think Molly knows what Sturgis was up to, and that Sturgis could 
> not explain it to the Ministry, hence his jail time. She is grateful 
> that Dumbledore has a cover story for Arthur that the Ministry can 
> accept and that Arthur can give. Anyway, that is what I find to be 
> the the straightforward reading of these lines.

Jen: I meant Molly doesn't seem to know Sturgis was likely Imperio'd by
Lucius and that's why he was caught at the MOM, that it wasn't simply
being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  I misunderstood your
theory and thought Snape had passed information specifically about
the Order guarding the door before the Order ever started, and
therefore Dumbledore and the Order members should have known
Sturgis was tampered with on the night in question.  

Since you cleared up for me that Snape didn't pass anything so specific
as the Order guarding the door, today I'm thinking the plausible
explanation for Molly's comment is that DD and the Order didn't
realize what happened to Sturgis until after Arthur was attacked. 

> zgirnius:
> My own guess as to the nature of the information is that it was stuff 
> about Sirius, a lot of which Snape had to fear Voldemort would get 
> anyway, from Peter. That Harry and Sirius are close, that Sirius is a 
> dog Animagus, that he is around, perhaps that he is staying at Order 
> HQ (an excellent reason why Snape cannot say *where* he is). 
> All it has to be is information that was part of the 
> planning/decision process for the DoM raid, if Vance was there. The 
> info helped with the raid, which led to the two deaths.

Jen:  Okay, so Snape was sort of taking credit for something he wasn't
involved in but which couldn't be proven otherwise by Bella and Narcissa.
Well, that's not entirely true because I still don't understand why he took
credit for Sirius with Narcissa standing right there knowing Kreacher was
the one who passed the information?  But about Vance, if she was the
unlucky one to be guarding the door and was captured and later killed,
then Snape could say his information led to those events.

I do wish JKR would have made it clear whether there was an Order
guard the night in question.  Harry doesn't wonder where the Order
guard is, only the MOM security.  None of the kids think about or
mention the possibility of an Order member around to help Sirius
before they can arrive.  There were moments in the story when
the information could have been slipped in as a clue and it wasn't.

But then I'm still trying to figure out the whole point of the guard
at the door to begin with!  Dumbledore knows only LV or Harry can
pick up the orb so the guard isn't really guarding the orb because
how could one person keep Voldemort from entering the room?? 
That leaves the notion that what the guard is doing is keeping
Harry *out* should Voldemort lure him there.  So in my mind
Occlumency took the place of the guard after Arthur was attacked
and the Order realized what had happened to Podmore.  The new
way to 'guard' Harry was to keep him from being lured there to
begin with.

I do like this Vance theory because it explains Snape's comments
about Sirius and Vance in one fell swoop.  Although I get the sense
that even if Bella and Narcissa were fooled into thinking Snape
had a big role in the events of the DOM raid (and it's hard for
me to understand why given Kreacher's supposed role), that
Voldemort was *not* fooled, and Snape's lack of helpful information
throughout OOTP caused the undercurrent of mistrust directed
at him in HBP, i.e., Bella's comments, Peter at Spinner's End, Snape
not in on Draco's mission once it starts, Draco being helped by
Bella and not Snape, etc.

Jen