Dumbledore the Godfather

[M.Clifford]

No: HPFGUIDX 174078

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "eggplant107" <eggplant107 at ...>
wrote:
>
> "justcarol67" <justcarol67@> wrote:
> 
> > Voldemort would discover that his 
> > Horcruxes were being destroyed and start
> > keeping Nagini beside him
> 
> And Dumbledore was right about that, he was also extremely lucky. For
> all he knew Nagini could have been the first Horcrux Harry managed to
> destroy not the last.


Valky now:
Well.. the chance of that was virtually zero, Dumbledore also knew
Harry and I don't merely doubt he thought Harry would be so stupid as
to give the game away in the first round, Dumbledore simply *had* to
be right about this, save the very slim possibility of a random freak
accidental killing of Nagini. Harry could not positively target her
until the end if he was to have any chance at all of getting his hands
on the Cup and Tiara, 99.99*% probability that Harry would not kill
Nagini before last was the easiest and most reliable assumption DD
could have made. I think most of us here at HPFGU assumed it also when
speculating about Book 7, it was just so clearly that probable.


> 
> > DD has not told Snape that the scar
> > is a Horcrux, only that it contains
> > a soul bit that must be destroyed. 
> 
> I don't see your distinction; it seems to me that is the very
> definition of a Horcrux.

I see the distinction in the sense that Snape may have not known about
Horcruxes specifically when DD first told him about Harry, then again
it's possible he did. But, if he didn't know, I doubt that Snape would
stay ignorant for long if he could help it. By the time Snape was
headmaster of Hogwarts, I would presume, he had a fair concept of what
Harry's scar was. 


> 
> > Neither Snape nor Harry must know
> > that Harry has a chance for survival 
> 
> Why? I don't see why he couldn't tell Snape that Harry had a chance of
> survival, it would certainly stem a potential mutiny when Snape is
> angry at Dumbledore for leading Lilly Potter's son to slaughter like a
> pig.

I'm in agreement with Eggplant, here. I know DD said that it was
essential that Voldemort killed Harry, but my take on this is that DD
didn't tell Harry or Snape about his chance of survival because he
simply wasn't sure *enough* to do more than hope. As good as DD's
guesses were it would be just plain wrong to march Harry to his death
without preparing him for the very real possibility that it would be
final. It was still a real possibility and it was entirely unavoidable
for Harry who would never get his life back as long as Voldemort
walked the WW anyway, to succeed at his task. In the end Harry's love
for his dearest friends would overcome and he would submit to death
for their sakes, somehow. From DD's perspective the only thing to do
was give Harry the news in the best possible way, that is, after he
had successfully landed a big enough blow to LV to put him on the back
foot and force another mistake. Only DD knew that Harry had a good
chance of surviving the destruction of his horcrux, but as it was not
a good enough chance to share, he kept it close to his chest. Things
could go wrong and no matter how you bend it Harry was facing up to
real death, it wasn't right to tell him otherwise.



> 
> > a chance that depends on the Hallows,
> > as I understand it 
> 
> I don't think that had anything to do with it.
> 
> > Harry, as DD anticipated, has taken 
> > the precaution of telling a friend to
> > destroy the snake.
> 
> No that can't be right. Dumbledore says, "If I know him he will have
> arranged matters so that when he does set out to meet his death, it
> will truly mean the end of Voldemort". So if everything had gone
> according to Dumbledore's plan then both Harry and Voldemort would
> have died in their first encounter in the forest that night. But as
> Harry says Dumbledore overestimated him, he was unable to dispose of
> the snake. Poor Harry, he didn't even think his sacrifice would mean
> the end of Voldemort; it would just destroy one more Horcrux, himself,
> and make it a little easier for somebody else to kill him someday.


As DD said, Harry did make arrangements to ensure his death was the
end of Voldemort, he went so far as to deliberately mimic Lily's
willing laying down of her life to leave his friends the same defenses
that she left him. This was the best he knew how to do, it was, at
least, the end of Voldemort killing his friends, three of whom knew
about Nagini and were ready to take her out. So Dumbledore wasn't
overestimating him, it was Harry's own idea to strike Voldemort a
devastating blow with his death by creating many more Harry's to take
his place. 

In my opinion Dumbledore's guesses were very good but he wasn't
counting on everything falling into place, and he was never sure how
Harry would face the sacrifice he had to make in the end. What
Dumbledore was sure about he put stock into, he was so sure about
Harry's ability to earn the right to wield the Gryffindor sword he
left it in his will, he was so sure that Harry would know what he
meant by sending him the snitch from his first Quidditch game that he
hid a very valuable object inside it and passed it safely through the
hands of adept wizards, he was so sure Ron would not want to stay
separated from his friends he gave him a way back, and of course, he
was so sure that Voldemort would defend his snake when Harry was
succeeding in destroying the horcruxes he instructed Snape to take it
as a sign. What DD knew, he backed, what he wasn't sure of, he hoped
for, of course, but he didn't put it out where it would just get in
the way of things. JMHO

Valky