[HPforGrownups] Letting Snape go (was Re: Dumbledore Disgusted (was: Snape's Request gave

[Bart Lidofsky]

No: HPFGUIDX 175902

Potioncat:
>It all happened quickly---or from Trelawney's point of view it does---
>There could have been two reasons for letting Snape go. One is that 
>DD knows he is a DE, but doesn't want LV to know he knows. The second 
>is that DD knows what LV will told. DD knows Snape has heard that a 
>Chosen One is coming (I'm part of the small knot of people who do not 
>think the first part is clear that the one is not yet born) and he 
>knows that LV will try to find that person.

Bart:
DD does not set much store by prophecy (OOP, explanation to Harry, among others). He believes that prophecies only come true if we allow them to come true. He also knows Morty to be superstitious, even by WW standards (or, more precisely, him giving as much value to symbols as he does to that which is symbolized, as shown to us, for example, by his need to acquire souvenirs) and would therefore fully believe the prediction.

Given that, it makes great sense for DD to allow Snape to escape.

There was a very popular mystery series (still widely shown in repeats) called COLUMBO. The stories almost always followed a very strict formula. Part of it was: Person commits murder, leaving a single clue. Lt. Columbo notices the clue, and becomes suspicious, but it is nowhere near enough for conviction. So he sets a trap, which causes the murderer to take additional action, that WILL serve as proof, when taken with all the other evidence (not to mention that the murderer, when confronted with the evidence, conveniently confesses to everything). 

This is what I believe to be DD's motivation: Morty is VERY effective at acting through agents, keeping himself out of the line of fire. DD was hoping that the prophecy would cause Morty to act, and expose himself to capture and maybe even defeat. Well, like a number of DD's plans, things go wrong (before people scream "Canon!": his being lured away during the COS raid and the PS/SS raid, the invasion of Hogwarts coming when he's partially disabled in HBP, just to name 3), and the secret keeper is the traitor. 

BTW, here's an interesting thought: RW poltergeists are often caused by extremely upset adolescents. In DH, it is mentioned that Peeves has been around 25 years. Doing the math (always a risky proposition in the HP series), it seems to be right around the time of SWM. In addition, Peeves spelled backwards is "Seveep" which is a contraction of Sev Snape, spelled sideways, sort of. 

Bart