Moody's death (was: Dumbledore's authority WAS: Re: Fees for Harry)

[a_svirn]

No: HPFGUIDX 179502

> > a_svirn:
> > Except that Snape fed the information to Voldemort not to protect 
> Harry (it had, in fact, increased the danger considerably), but to 
> improve his own standing. 
> > 
> Carol:
> 
> That statement is directly contradicted by canon. Dumbledore tells
> Snape that he will have to give LV the correct date to avoid raising
> suspicion, but he adds, "However, you must plant the idea of decoys.
> That, I think, ought to insure Harry's safety."

a_svirn:
Wherein do you see the contradiction? Avoiding the suspicion part is 
about Snape's safety, not Harry's. 

As for Harry, "ought to" is the operative modality. He can't be sure, 
can he? And in the event *it didn't* ensure Harry's safety. He 
survived by accident, and not thanks to Snape or Dumbledore. 

> Carol, who thinks that if both Snape and DD say that their plan was
> intended to protect harry, it must be intended to protect Harry

a_svirn:
And if Dumbledore states that Snape has to betray the date of the 
operation to avoid suspicion, it must be to ensure his high standing 
among the death eaters. Characteristically, they succeeded in the 
avoiding suspicion part, and *did not* succeed in the ensuring safety 
part. Harry only survived because of that wand thing (which was *not* 
part of Dumbledore's careful planning), and even so it a was pretty 
near miss. 

a_svirn:
> By the time he appears, seven Harrys would have gone to seven 
> different directions. Where would he have apparated? To Privet 
Drive? 
> They would have gone out of sight by then. The two death eaters on 
> the look-out would have gone after Moody and Kingsley. They would 
> have pressed their marks constantly moving. 

Pippin:
Your plan seems to rely an awful lot on Voldemort being stupid. 
If I was Voldemort, I'd leave two watchers for the Order to catch and 
have twenty more better hidden.

a_svirn:
Well, maybe you'd have made a better Dark Lord then. Moody certainly 
relied on Voldemort being this stupid, didn't he. He said that if 
*he* were Voldemort he'd leave only a couple of death eaters on the 
look-out. 

Pippin:
He has hundreds of dementors, he can put animals under the 
Imperius curse, and DE's are just as capable of using invisibility 
cloaks and disillusionment charms as the Order is.

a_svirn:
So where were those dementors and animals during the chase? I seem to 
remember death eaters only.

(By the way it beats me why Moody and Co didn't use the 
Disillusionment charm this time around.)

Pippin:
You are also completely ignoring the Ministry's prohibitions. If the
Order flouted those, they'd either be arrested or they'd have to
go into hiding, leaving the Ministry unprotected.

a_svirn:
To which prohibitions do you allude? 
In any case, you seem also completely ignoring the undeniable fact 
the order did flout the prohibitions. Harry used magic despite being 
underage and he and Hagrid flouted the Statute of Secrecy in a rather 
spectacular (in every sense of the word) manner. Yet Scrimgeour 
forbore to press charges. Harry even taunted him about this in 
the "Dumbledore's Will" chapter. 

Pippin:
Voldemort's
coup would have happened before Scrimgeour delivered Dumbledore's
legacy.

a_svirn: 
No, it wouldn't have. Yaxley hadn't managed to infiltrate the 
Ministry to that extent. Voldemort didn't want to risk the coup, 
without Yaxley preparing the ground properly.

Pippin:
And you think Voldemort wouldn't have been able to find out when
Harry was planning to leave unless Snape told him?

a_svirn:
Yes, I do. That's canon, after all. 

Pippin:
Um, aren't there
other DE's just as capable of using a confundus spell on a susceptible
order member as Snape is?

a_svirn:
Well, where were they? There was a stiff competition for Voldemort's 
favours, so why didn't they use the chance? 

Pippin:
While Harry's life is not worth more than any other man's,
Harry's death would mean the deaths of countless others.

a_svirn:
How do you arrive at this estimate? Harry's death would mean one 
Horcrux down at least. And with other order members hunting down 
other horcruxes they could do the whole thing faster and cleaner. The 
Hogwarts Battle could have been avoided and it did cost at least 
fifty lives. Not counting death eaters. 

Oh, do you mean the prophesy? I thought it was the bad guy Voldemort 
who stopped at nothing in order to fulfill the prophesy. The good 
guys are supposed to be better than that. Not to mention wiser. 

Gosh, Dumbledore himself told Harry not to put too much store by the 
prophesy. Obviously he lied then – as was his custom. 

Pippin:
He may have been wrong not to give Mundungus the same
choice, but if so, he paid a price for it.

a_svirn:
He died because he did NOT give Mundungus the choice. Mundungus's 
choice was to stay safely at his lair.