HeadMaster Snape & The Battle of Hogwarts

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 164832

---  "Mike" <mcrudele78 at ...> wrote:
>
> --- "justcarol67" wrote:
> >
> > > "Steve" <bboyminn@> wrote:
> > > <snipped, read it up-thread>
> >
> > Carol responds:
> > I really like this idea, in part because it makes 
> > Snape highly visible and because it enables him to 
> > "slither out of action" of the murder-and-torture 
> > variety, which would be highly detrimental to 
> > DDM!Snape, and because it sets up an emotionally 
> > charged encounter between Snape and Harry. ...
> > <snip>
> 
> Mike:
> I too like this idea of Steve's. Of course the open
> question still remains will Hogwarts even open this 
> year? If McGonnagall becomes Headmistress - seems 
> likely - she was leaning towards not re-openning 
> at the end of HBP. 
> 

bboyminn:

I would like to pose the question at this time, why
would the school close? A question, which of course,
I will also answer. I don't think it would be
simply because the Headmaster was dead; they all die
eventually. I think in the moment of the aftermath
of Dumbledore's death, McGonagall contemplates whether
any parents will feel that Hogwarts or anywhere else 
in the wizard world will be safe. 

She is not planning to close the school, but is 
wondering if enough students will return to warrant 
opening the school. The other teachers all say that
even if only one student returns, they will be happy
to teach that student. So McGonagall is concerned
about enrollment. The teachers are determined to 
teach no matter how low the enrollment numbers are.
That seems as though they are considering the 
possibility that the school could close, but are
fighting for it to stay open.

So, what could cause the school to close? Well, they
might realize exactly what I and Voldemort have
realized, that the school is the supreme strategic
target. He who holds the students holds the wizard 
world. Note that if there are no students at Hogwarts,
there really is no reason to capture it. Empty, the
school is of virtually zero strategic advantage, and
only an ever so slight psychological advantage. It
would make the wizard world uneasy, but it wouldn't
really exert any pressure on them. 

Keep in mind that the school is 1,000 years old, and
to the best of our knowledge, hasn't closed down yet.
It seems like the first Voldemort War was far more
advanced and dangerous than the current one, and we
don't hear of the school being closed down because of
it.

Of course, Dumbledore is gone now, and that is exactly
what makes Hogwarts an appealing target. If the school
is not open, it will be because the Board of Governors
see the likelihood of an attack on Hogwarts as being
too high to risk. And without students, there 
really isn't any point in attacking the school. Still,
I can't help but think that in its many years of history
Hogwarts hasn't closed down, I see no reason why they
would now.

I'd say it's about 50/50, but I'm leaning toward it
being open since the whole series seems to be based 
around the Hogwarts school year; seven years, seven 
books.

> ... Edited portrait comments that I agree with...
> 
> 
> > Carol cont.:
> > I considered the idea of Snape working with his 
> > seeming rival Bellatrix to engineer a DE escape from
> > Azkaban, during or after  which he would subvert 
> > Lucius Malfoy and a few others to rebel  against 
> > Voldemort, but I like your idea even better because 
> > it recenters the action on Hogwarts.
> 
> Mike:
> Can't we have both?! <g> I like this idea too, Carol. 
> Although, how about reuniting Lucius Malfoy with his 
> son - and having Lucius remain in Voldie's camp - it 
> could make for even more pressure on Draco and 
> produce an interesting dynamic if Draco is eventually
> going to turn to the side of light.
> 
> 

bboyminn:

One of the greatest conflicts I see in the next book
will be Snape's internal and external conflict. 
Certainly, Snape wants Draco to turn to the good side,
but likely Draco feels he has already gone too far in 
his actions. Though I don't necessarily feel that is
so, I think Draco can still convert to the side of 
good with minimal consequences. But how? 

How can Snape even approach that subject with Draco?
Draco may see it as another opportunity to get on to
Voldemort's good side. Perhaps, when Draco least 
expects it, Snape will use Legilimency to find out 
that Draco really wants out. In any event, I see
Snape turning Draco to the good side as an extremely
difficult task because it will have to occur under
the watchful eye of the other (jealous) DE's and under
Voldemort's watchful eye. 

Next, I just don't see how the next book can play out
without Harry and Snape finding some way to work
together, and by extension, Harry and Draco working
together but that is another subject. Even if Snape 
is ESE! I think he will still try to convince Harry he
is not, and if he is DDM! then he has an equally 
difficult task in convincing Harry. That is probably
the part of the next book that I am most looking 
forward to, how will Snape and Harry make their
peace?


> > Steve:
> > > <snip>   attack at the Weasley Wedding,
> > 
> > Carol:
> > Nor do I think we'll see an attack on the Weasley 
> > wedding, which  can easily be kept a secret .... 
> > Keep it quiet, all in the family. <snip>
> 
> Mike:
> Question: Isn't it traditional that the wedding is 
> held at or near the home and family of the bride? ...
> It goes with tradition that this wedding would be in 
> France and it has a much better chance of being 
> unmarred if it is held there. 
> 

bboyminn:

Fair point Mike, but I get the sense that the wedding
is going to be at the Weasleys. Maybe that is an
unfounded impression on my part, but that's how I
read the book. Though on second thought, the Weasley's
seems pretty small and cramped. Is there really 
enough room there for a wedding and reception even
if it is all held outdoors - food for thought.

Arthur actually has a relatively large family; several
brothers. I assume a few of his coworkers will be there.
Perhaps the Ministry will even see this as another 
chance to get in Harry's good graces. Plus all the people
from France. That is a lot of very strategically important
people all gathering in one place. That just seems like
too easy a target to not hit it. It is also one of the
reasons why it is unwise to have such a public wedding
in times like this.

Personally, I hope the wedding pulls off without a hitch,
and Harry gets to meet the extended Weasley clan as well
as the extent family of Fleur Delacore. But still it 
seems to great a psychological target for Voldemort to
pass up.

On the other hand, Voldemort's numbers of DE's is not 
that strong right now. A lot of them are in prison, 
though I certainly expect them to get out soon. Keep
in mind there were convicted of Tresspassing, but were
not, according to the Prophet, convicted of attempted
murder, being DE's, or any of their greater crimes. 
None the less, they are there now. A few DE's were lost
in the raid at Hogwarts. Perhaps Voldemort will decide 
that the small psychological gain of an attack on a 
wedding is not worth the risk of losing more DE's. 
Hopefully, he will concentrate on more long term and 
more critical targets.

For what it's worth.

Steve/bboyminn