To the Extreme

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 164910

Ken wrote:
> 
> But that is not how it works and to condemn a technique because it
has occasionally, or frequently, been misused is wrong. It is
perfectly fine to start with a fantastic premise and work backwards.
When you get to the point where you realize that Merope and Lily were
not alive at the same time you give up or try to patch up the theory.
The uglier your patch job becomes, the less likely your theory is. At
some point if the theory just can't be made to fit reality (or canon)
with a reasonably simple extension of your theory you do have to stop.
*But you save the broken pieces of your theory because they might be
useful later!* To stop before expending a reasonable effort on
patching is to risk overlooking a potential solution.
> 
> This isn't ordinary literary analysis at this point. The work is
incomplete and people are trying to guess where the author might head
next. When dealing with unknowns the scientific method is a good tool,
that is precisely what it was invented for. If you assume that nothing
will happen in DH that has not been hinted at in canon and if you
assume that the "standard" reading of canon correctly identifies all
the hints that are there you are assuming that there will be no
surprises in DH. I find that very unlikely. <snip>

Carol responds:
Of course here's a difference between literary analysis and
speculation. Literary analysis starts with the text, examines it to
find out what it may mean or imply, draws a tentative conclusion, and
then returns to the text to support that conclusion. Although the
conclusion is not definitive--it remains an interpretation--it can at
least be supported with evidence from the text and stand up to
counterarguments, or it can be modified if it turns out to be flawed.
(Look at the various interpretations of "Spinner's End" or
Dumbledore's words in the cave or the events on the tower for
examples.) Speculation starts with "what if" and scrambles frantically
thtough the text to find any bit of evidence (Tom Riddle and Harry
look a little bit alike) to support it. Speculation is fun while the
seventh book is still unpublished but probably pointless after that.
Literary analysis of any book worth rereading is always profitable.
Sharing ideas, refining our own interpretations based on the reactions
of others, is an intellectual exercise that increases not only our
understanding of the HP books but our capacity for interpreting and
appreciating other books as well. (Of course, we can continue to
speculate on aspects of the story that JKR doesn't cover--homelife at
the Blacks when Sirius and Regulus were young, for example, or the
friendship between Dobby and Winky before they were both "freed"--but
that way fanfic lies. It doesn't help us figure out what *is* there.)

Even speculation should start with a thorough knowledge of canon. Tom
Riddle's black hair cmes from his father, not from Merope. Harry's
black hair comes from James, not from Lily. Lily's mother was a
Muggle, with whom it's highly unlikely that Merope had any contact and
who is now dead. Besides, if Merope had given Lily's mother her powers
(an unprecedented act unless we count Vapormort's accidentally giving
Harry some of his powers at GH), Lily's mother, a noncharacter so far,
would be a witch, not a Muggle, which would make nonsense of Lily's
being a Muggleborn whose parents were "proud to have a witch in the
family."

I can speculate that Sirius Black and Severus Snape are somehow
related based on the similarity of their descriptions (noses aside),
positing that the Princes must have been purebloods (Severus was *the*
Half-Blood Prince) and explaining the lack of mention of the Princes
in the tapestry scene in OoP by noting the size of the tapestry (it
goes back many generations) and Harry's unfamiliarity with the name at
the time. (He might even have overlooked the name Snape if the
relationship was far enough back, but now we know that it wouldn't be
on there because Tobias was a Muggle.) But where will that speculation
lead me? What's the point? I think they must have been related at some
point, but does it really matter? It's unlikely that JKR will think it
important enough to mention.

I can also speculate that Amycus and Alecto are the Carrows and
Brutal-Face is Yaxley (all mentioned by Snape as DEs who pleaded the
Imperius Curse). That one is more likely to be either confirmed or
disproved in DH since the DEs will probably reappear in Daily Prophet
accounts or actual scenes, but it isn't really important (just a
detail I picked up on and am trying to put into place).

As you say, there are all sorts of unanswered questions in the books
on which we can provide speculative answers (why Voldemort becomes
more snakelike after his fifth Horcrux, for example, or why Blaise
Zabini is mentioned as lolling against a column in the Hog's Head when
Draco is in detention with McGonagall or whether Draco actually cast
the Imperius Curse that controlled Rosmerta). If JKR considers those
details to be important, she'll explain them. If not, we can still
provide explanations that fit with our own interpretation of canon,
but it will be nothing more than an amusing exercise in creativity,
different from actually analyzing the text to determine the motivation
of a character or the influence of one character on another or whether
some object (say the Invisibility Cloak) has symbolic value or when
the narrator can or can't be trusted.

As for whether Merope gave away her powers to Lily or Lily's mother,
there's not a shred of evidence. All we know is that she either lost
her powers or chose not to use them. Even Dumbledore doesn't know
which. We can tie that incident in with Tonks's apparent loss of her
Metamorphmagus powers in HBP and her changed Patronus. That might be a
more productive avenue for speculation. But chances are, those
questions will end with DH, either answered definitively or dropped as
insignificant.

So speculate away. Will Polyjuice be used again? When? How? By whom?
Try to second-guess JKR if you can. (I don't know about you, but I
certainly never anticipated that Draco would Polyjuice Crabbe and
Goyle into first-year girls, any more than I expected Snape to kill
Dumbledore.) It's fun. And I'm sure you're right that JKR will use
previously introduced devices whose possibilities haven't yet been
exhausted. Either that or she'll leave a lot of Chekhov's guns lying
around (the flying motorcycle and flying Ford Anglia, the
Acromantulae, the ghosts, Dumbledore's and Ron's watches, etc., etc.,
etc.). But let's at least confine our speculation to what's plausible
within the secondary world JKR has constructed. As for me, I prefer
literary analysis, even of an incomplete text, to speculation any day,
if only because its lifespan is not so limited.

Carol, who thinks there's a place for both kinds of posts on this list
and is merely expressing her preferences and opinions on the subject