Dumbledore's Secret 'All Along' Plan?

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 163659

Penny Brooks wrote:
> >
> > ... I myself had been of the mind that Dumbledore:
> > 
> > 1)  was aware of LV's existence, and his plans to reemerge
> 
> bboyminn:
> 
> Not quite, Dumbledore thought that perhaps Voldemort was
> not entirely dead. That some how some way he still existed
> in some form, and was therefore likely at some time return
> to the wizard world. 
> 
> That is a lot of 'maybe's and with each passing year, I'm
> sure Dumbledore grew more confident in Voldemort's absents.

Carol responds:
I agree with Steve (bboyminn). Dumbledore suspected from the first
that Voldemort wasn't dead. As Hagrid puts it, "He didn't have enough
human left in him to die." (Quoted from memory so it may be slightly
off.) Dumbledore saw Voldemort in, I think, the late 1950s, and even
if he didn't suspect a Horcrux or multiple Horcruxes, then, he
suspected "multiple transformations"--LV was doing something unnatural
to prevent his death. He also knew that Voldemort feared death above
all else and had done so since he learned about his mother's death
(reasoning that she must have been a Muggle or she wouldn't have
died). And DD was also aware of the entire Prophecy ("he will mark him
as his equal," etc.) Parts of the Prophecy hadn't come to pass yet.
Baby Harry hadn't done anything to show himself as LV's equal nor had
he shown "power the Dark Lord knows not. (It was Lily's sacrifice, not
anything Harry himself did, that vaporized Voldemort.) So Dumbledore
didn't *know* that LV wasn't dead (unless Snape's Dark Mark had faded
to a trace but not disappeared entirely), but he had some strong
suspicions. (It seems odd to me that he dismisses the Prophecy almost
contemptuously in HBP since he seems to understand that Voldemort
activated or validated it by trying to prevent it and that, obscure
and slippery as the wording is, allowing either LV or Harry to be the
victor, it nevertheless is true and Harry *is* the Chosen One.) Under
the circumstances, he would wait and watch and prepare, and I'm sure
that from the outset, his plans and preparations included Severus Snape.
 
> 
> > Penny:
> > 2)  was aware of LV's thoughts about Harry, and the danger against
Harry
> 
> bboyminn:
> 
> Dumbledore assumed that is was likely that IF Voldemort
> ever returned he would likely still have a grudge against
> Harry, the cause of his downfall. That's still pretty
> IFFY, but none the less a likely assumption.

Carol:
Again, I agree with Steve. Dumbledore doesn't have a mind link to
Voldemort and can't read his thoughts, but he knows him well. He also
knows the entire Prophecy. If Voldemort is not dead, Harry is in
danger. Voldie tried to kill him once to thwart the Prophecy. He will
keep trying till Harry is dead or he himself is destroyed. That's a given.
> 
> > Penny:
> > 3)  had some idea about the horcruxes, and has been piecing
together the evidence since COS
> > 
> 
> bboyminn:
> 
> No problems here. Dumbledore gradually put the pieces 
> together and arrived at the Horcrux conclusion. This
> was absolutely confirmed when he found a Horcrux of 
> his own.

Carol:
I think he suspected Horcruxes, or a single Horcrux, long before CoS.
I suspect that Grindelwald, whom DD defeated in 1945--exactly the time
that Tom Riddle would be leaving Hogwarts--had a Horcrux that DD
destroyed. (He indicates to Harry that both he and Voldemort know of
at least one wizard who had one.) Voldemort's altered appearance in
the DADA interview, especially the red eyes, would arouse DD's
suspicions othat Voldemort had made one or more Horcruxes. The diary
confirms those suspicions, but its destruction should have prevented
his return to "human" form if it were the only one. It didn't, so DD
knew there must be more--how many, he didn't yet know. So I think that
DD must have begun his research into various people's memories and
Voldemort's history to find out as much as he could about the
Horcruxes even before he knew that the diary existed. Caractacus
Burke, Morfin Gaunt, Bob Ogden, and the house-elf Hokey had all died
years before CoS. He could not have obtained those memories after
finding out or figuring out that the diary was a Horcrux. (BTW, I
think he shared his suspicions with a certain Dark Arts expert on his
staff, who confirmed them through his own knowledge and research.)
> 
> > Penny:

> > 1)  Why would Dumbledore hire Lockhart? In COS, Dumbledore's
comments about him indicate he's fully aware of Lockhart's
incapabilities.  ...
> > 
> 
bboyminn:
> 
> First, the DADA job has been in jeopardy for a long time.
> We pick up the story when Harry arrives and see, so far,
> six DADA teachers, each ending with his own bit of bad
> luck.
> 
> However, you must remember that this curse on the DADA 
> job has been going on for over 20 years. It has been 
> curse from the time many many years ago when Voldemort
> himself applied for the job. So, they have gone through
> over 20 (estimate) DADA teachers, none has lasted more
> than a year, and all have ended is some type of bad luck
> or misfortune.
> 
> So, it is very probably that there real was no one other
> that Lockhart who applied for the job. Certainly the 
> wizard world is filled with people who are more than
> qualified to DO the job, but if they don't apply, if
> they don't want it, you really can't force them. 
> 
> I say the Dumbledore really is scraping the bottom of
> the barrle. In the year the Umbride was DADA professor
> she got the job because Dumbledore simply could not
> find ANY ONE to take the job.

Carol responds:
I'm not sure that the WW is "filled with people who are more than
qualified to do the job," especially since many of those people would
have died in VW1, and anyone who took DADA at Hogwarts after the curse
was placed on it would have had a string of increasingly incompetent
professors for the class. (I'm betting that Severus Snape, with his
detailed answers to the DADA OWL questions, did a lot of reading on
his own in both DADA and Potions in addition to practical research in
the form of developing his own spells and potions improvements.) So
the pool of qualified teachers was limited to begin with and became
more so as each of those twenty or so teachers lost his job (or life
or limb or mind--we don't know what happened to them, but if the fates
of the teachers we see in the HP books is any indication, it wasn't
pretty). What few qualified teachers were left would hesitate to apply
because the position was clearly jinxed (or worse). But DD needed a
DADA teacher every year because the students needed to pass their OWLs
(not much hope for the NEWTs unless the student was self-motivated and
talented). At the least, they could read the books and practice on
their own, DADA being a favorite class of most students (except in
Umbridge's year). He was probably relieved that Quirrell only asked
for a leave of absence after his first year of teaching DADA, which
meant that DD wouldn't have to search for a teacher for Harry's first
year. As for Lockhart, he was eager for the job and *seemed* to have
exceptional qualifications. Maybe the books really contained practical
advice on banishing Banshees and vanquishing Vampires. Once DD had
hired him and recognized his incompetence (as Snape and the other
teachers did, too), he could only hope for the best. He soon had other
things to worry about--the Chamber of Secrets being opened and its
monster loose. Fortunately, he had an Herbology teacher who could grow
Mandrakes and a Potions master who could prepare the Mandrake
Restorative Potion. (I think, BTW, that both DD and Snape knew that
the monster was a Basilisk, hence Snape's reaction when Harry speaks
Parseltongue.) Lockhart's incompetence was of no consequence.

I agree that by Harry's fifth year, DD was scraping the bottom of the
barrel. No one applied for the job; he had no choice but to accept a
Ministry teacher. True, he could have hired Snape, but, IMO, he was
holding Snape in reserve. He wanted him with him on the staff; he
could not afford to lose him to the DADA curse. But in Harry's sixth
year, with Voldemort back in power, no longer focused on the Prophecy
but actively killing people and wreaking havoc with giants and DEs and
ordering a sixteen-year-old to kill him, DD had no choice but to hire
Snape. The only obstacle was a replacement Potions master (and head of
Slytherin after the DADA curse struck). The answer was Slughorn, whom
he needed for another reason. Snape was available and highly qualified
to teach students in dangering of facing everything from Inferi to
Death Eaters. The only hitch was one they both must have known all
along--at the end of the year, he would have to leave the staff and
join the Death Eaters.
> 
> > Penny:
> > 2)Why did Dumbledore agree to hold and host the Triwizard
Tournament at Hogwarts?  ...  
> > 
> 
> bboyminn:
> 
> Why? Because life goes on. You can't stop living 
> because you thing some dark wizard who /might/ still
> be alive, and he /might/ still come back, and if he 
> does he /might/ cause problems. It seems that 
> Dumbledore and the others have been working on this
> project for years. <snip> Further, Dumbledore put in place
> certain protections that should have prevented Harry
> from being part of the tournement. 
> 
> Like I said, life goes on, and you take reasonable
> precautions but you don't stop living because
> something /might/ happen.

Carol responds:
I would add that the TWT was part of DD's attempt to unify the
(European) WW, rather like the Sorting Hat's attempt to unify the
Houses. Voldemort had not yet returned, but it was clear by that time
that he would do so. DD needed allies, or better still, friends, who
would aid him and his staff and students in the war to come. And at
least three students (seventeen-year-olds, he thought) would have
extra preparation that only a TWT (its dangers reduced from old times)
could provide. International Magical Cooperation was the stated goal,
an alliance against Voldemort the unstated one. The age line was
supposed to prevent Harry, or any other underage wizard, from entering
or competing. And Moody as DADA teacher was supposed to keep an eye on
Karkaroff just in case his loyalties still lay with the
not-yet-restored Voldemort. (Snape, as always, would keep an eye on
Harry.) No one, not even Dumbledore, could have anticipated the
usurpation of Moody's position by an imposter, a supposedly dead Death
Eater who would put Harry's name in the Goblet of Fire. 
> 
> > Penny:
> > I won't even go into the whole occlumency with Snape fiasco--even
Dumbledore admits it was a bad idea.
> > 
> 
> bboyminn:
> 
> I think the Occlumency lessons were a large fiasco relative
> to the book they appeared in (OotP), but I think Harry is 
> better at it than it seems, and I full expect those lessons
> to pay off at some point in the last book. Note: while I
> said Harry is better than he seems, he's still never 
> going to be great at it.

Carol responds:
The only mistake, IMO, was not explaining to Harry why he had to learn
it--and that he must stop having that dream. Snape was exceptionally
patient (for Snape) with a resentful and uncooperative Harry and
explained as much as he was allowed to explain. it was Harry himself,
entering the Pensieve, who caused the lessons to end--a point that DD
could hardly make when Harry was furious over the death of Sirius Black.
> 
> > Penny concludes:
> > So, I'm wondering:  if Dumbledore knew all along about
> > LV's possible  plans and the horcruxes, and such, then
> > either:
> > 
> > 1)  He's making a lot of inexplicable decisions
> > 2)  He's purposefully trying to get Harry to LV
> > 3)  He was using Harry as bait to draw LV out, where 
> > the Order can get him.  Didn't work, but now Harry is 
> > old enough to handle things (maybe).

> bboyminn:
> 
> Dumbledore has made his mistakes, but I think he as taken
> reasonable precausion based on what was known at the time.
> I don't agree with 1) or 2) above, and I can only give
> the slightest nod to item 3). Dumbledore knows that Harry
> and Voldemort's fate are intertwined and there is nothing
> he can do about that. Voldemort is calling the shots. 
> Voldemort decides when, where, and if he will attack Harry.
> What can Dumbledore do about that? Lock Harry up in a cell
> to protect him? Even that is not safe, and it is certainly
> not a morally acceptable solution. 
> 
> So, once again, we are stuck with 'life goes on', and 
> what will come will come and they have to deal with each
> event when it arrives. Though as Dumbledore gathers more
> knowledge, he is more able to find ways of ultimately
> defeating Voldemort. Many of the tragic events that have
> happened to Harry, are the very events that gave Dumbledore
> the clues he needed.

Carol:
Again, I agree with Steve. Although DD gives Harry more leeway for
rule-breaking and facing dangers than he would give to any other
student, it's because Harry *must* have experience facing dangers if
he's going to survive the encounter(s) with Voldemort. He has to learn
by doing. There's no other way.

So DD's decisions are not inexplicable. He's a flawed human being but
wiser than most; he knows what Harry must face in the end; he knows
that he must be prepared. The decision to teach Harry Occlumency, and
to have Snape teach it instead of DD, makes perfect sense under the
circumstances. The reason the lessons failed has nothing to do with
Snape's hatred for James; if Harry hadn't entered the Pensieve, he
still would have failed to learn it. He wanted to have that dream, so
he didn't learn even the most rudimentary form of it. He didn't clear
his mind when he went to sleep; he invited the dream to enter. And
because he'd been having that dream all along, trying to find out what
was in the corridor, he believed the "vision" when it came. I don't
blame either DD or Snape. The failure to learn, or at least try to
learn, is Harry's. The only failure on DD's part was to explain what
was going on--why Harry had to learn it and why DD couldn't teach it
himself. Harry did need to know why DD was avoiding him, but I can see
why DD didn't want to tell him. The TWT had, to begin with, nothing to
do with Harry. It, too, can be explained, as can his hiring of
incompetent DADA teachers. And though he's not omniscient, DD does
keep an eye on Harry via Snape and the portraits and perhaps the
ghosts. (I don't think he knew about Umbridge's detentions, though.
Umbridge's gamboling kittens don't report to Dumbledore.)

Dumbledore certainly is not purposely trying to get Harry as LV or
using him as bait to draw LV out. He's trying to train him to face
him, and at the same time give him as normal a life as possible.
Incompatible goals, perhaps, but perfectly understandable in view of a
wise and good but humanly flawed Dumbledore.

Carol, who believes that Harry has learned a great many lessons thanks
to Dumbledore and that these lessons will prove crucial in DH