Prank and various responsibilities WAS: Re: Marietta

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 169781

Pippin:
<snip>
> As PoA shows us, you can't do it relying on the calendar alone. 
> If  the PoA dates of Lupin's absences are accurate at all, then 
> he arranged to be absent at other times besides the full moon 
> and some of his full moon absences weren't noticeable because 
> they coincided with evenings, weekends, holidays and so forth. 
> 
> Without an additional clue to look for a correllation between
> Lupin's absences and the full moon, as Hermione did,
> Snape couldn't have deduced the connection just by looking at 
> the dates. He got as far as noticing Lupin was gone
> every month, but wouldn't have enough data to see that Lupin
> was *always* gone on the full moon. 
<snip>

Dana:
So what other information did Hermione have? Because essentially she 
would face the same difficulties as Snape had when it comes to 
putting Lupin's disappearances next to a lunar chart. So Hermione had 
the Boggart that was a moon but Snape had something else besides 
witnessing Madam Pomfrey guide Lupin across the grounds and noticing 
that Lupin disappeared every month. 

Pg 314 UKed Paperback chapter "A very Frosty Christmas".

`Sometimes you remind me a lot of James. He called it my "furry 
little problem" in company. Many people were under the impression 
that I owned a baldy behaved rabbit.' 

End quote canon. 

I disagree that Snape couldn't have deduced the connection by looking 
at the dates and comparing it to a lunar chart because that is what 
Hermione did. If Snape already came to the conclusion that Lupin 
disappeared every month then he would have plenty of data to see that 
it was always on a full moon. Because comparing the data to a lunar 
chart would have done the trick. If he only noticed Lupin being gone 
on one night I would agree with you but *every month* indicates Snape 
was on to these monthly disappearances which would have provided 
enough data. Snape would only have needed two or three months and 
compare them to the lunar chart and he would have enough to make the 
conclusion. He then only had to monitor the full moon nights and see 
if the next disappearance would again be on a full moon night to make 
the suspicion final. I believe that Snape witnessing Lupin, being 
brought to the willow by Madam Pomfrey, was because Snape was indeed 
keeping track of Lupin BECAUSE it was a full moon night. 

Also canon clearly shows that Lupin transformed only at night during 
the full moon but that he was still sick (or looking bad enough) 
enough to not teach his classes during the day. So Snape did not have 
to notice Lupin only being gone during the evenings but especially 
during the day when only a group of 3 marauders were causing havoc 
around the castle. So he could even have noticed this during the 
weekends and not just on schooldays, unlike Hermione as she was only 
able to notice when Lupin was absent during class. 

Pippin:
> And *that*,  my dears, explains why Sirius  didn't care
> that  the prank would have outed Lupin. Snape was going to find 
> out anyway, you see, and just like Viktor Krum, Sirius  decided
> to end the game on his terms. He knew Lupin would understand.
> Of course if Lupin was in on it, he'd understand even better :)

Dana:
This I actually agree with but probably for different reasons then 
you do ;o) 

Sirius never states that Snape did not know what Lupin was, that was 
only Lupin. I do not believe Lupin was in on it because I do not 
believe the ordeal was premeditated on Sirius's part and that means 
Lupin was already behind the willow when the whole ordeal took place. 

JMHO

Dana