Say it isn't so Lupin!!!

[wynnleaf]

No: HPFGUIDX 170042

> Dana:

> I'm sorry but to me it seems ESE!Lupin is just a figure of the 
> imagination and actually proofs JKR's point because applying the 
> suspicion to him being ESE is what the rest of the WW does too, that 
> werewolves cannot be trusted. 

wynnleaf
This comment concerns me because among the few people that espouse the 
ESE!Lupin, or at least Traitor!Lupin theories, I don't know *anyone* 
who believes Lupin's being a werewolf is what makes him suspicious.  
It is not what Lupin *can't* help (his being a werewolf), but his 
*choices* in his human form that have made him suspicious.  

I read Pippin's link to the ESE!Lupin Condensed post and wanted to 
comment about a couple of points and ask a question.

I am not sure that I buy into the idea that Lupin has been a traitor 
all along.  I see both sides of this one, but I do see this as a 
possibility, especially given the several extremely suspicious things 
Lupin does in POA.  It is odd that for such a well-constructed book, 
all of the major "plot holes" seem to involve Lupin doing something 
inexplicable.  

Pippin made this observation that I'd never noticed before (pardon me 
if it's been discussed in depth elsewhere):  

Pippin
<<Since Quirrell was under suspicion, it was Lupin who met with Hagrid
at the Hogs Head.>>

Regardless of whether or not the stranger drinking with Hagrid was 
Lupin, it seems to me that it cannot have been Quirrell/Voldemort.  
Hagrid relates that the stranger had "his" hood over his head and made 
an effort to not be seen, therefore it is almost certain that this 
person was not using polyjuice, else he'd have used an innocuous 
persona so that Hagrid could see him and still think him a stranger.  
Use of the hood, and an effort not to be seen, makes it clear that 
Hagrid would have recognized this person if he'd seen him.  However, 
Hagrid had a long conversation and did not recognize the voice.  So it 
wouldn't have been Quirrell's voice, which he'd have been hearing 
regularly at that point.  But if it was Voldemort, speaking out of the 
back of Quirrell's head, then Hagrid would be bound to notice over the 
course of a long conversation that the voice was not emanating from 
the face.  Harry assumed originally (before he learns about 
Quirrell/Voldemort) that the stranger was either Snape or Voldemort.  
But it wasn't Snape, and it couldn't have been bodiless Voldemort, or 
Voldemort in the back of Quirrell's head.  So this leaves the stranger 
with the dragon's egg a complete mystery.  

At the end of POA, Hagrid talked about the incident and his own 
culpability in giving away the information.  But nowhere do we get a 
definitive answer from either a character or the narration, as to the 
identity of the stranger.  Although we (the reader) may assume it was 
Quirrell/Voldemort, we are never given an explanation for why Hagrid 
didn't recognize the voice, or couldn't tell that the voice was coming 
from the other side of the head and covered by the back of the hood of 
the cloak.  

It seems more likely that this is a bit of misdirection by JKR, to 
make us assume that we knew who the stranger was, even though we were 
never told and there's plenty of internal evidence that it couldn't be 
who we assume.  

So who is it?

In spite of some posters assumptions that there will be no further 
traitors, each and every book has culminated with the revelation of 
Harry having trusted, to one degree or another, a character who seems 
to betray Harry or others.  Quirrell, Tom Riddle of the diary, Ginny 
(unwillingly), Scabbers (the supposedly faithful pet) revealed as past 
traitor and betrayed Ron's trust, fake!Moody, Kreacher who Harry 
trusts to tell him the truth of where Sirius is, even Umbridge who 
Harry would at least not have suspected of going against the MOM 
regulations and setting dementors on him, and Snape who appears to 
betray Dumbledore's trust.  The odds are very high that JKR will have 
at least one more betrayal against the good guys in DH, and since it's 
the culminating book, it seems likely that the last betrayal will be 
the culminating betrayal -- bigger than all the rest.

So it would make sense for the last traitor to have his/her 
treacherous roots all the way back into the first book, if not the 
backstory.  Which means that JKR would need to have been planting the 
literary seeds in PS/SS.

Pippin (from ESE!Lupin condensed)
Why Lupin should have turned against Dumbledore, to whom he owed
so much, will be resolved in Book Seven, IMO, but I believe it to
be because Lupin found his adult life unbearable. He could
not endure the social disadvantages of living as a werewolf, yet only
among his own kind did he feel normal. I see him as conflicted,
agonized by Voldemort's brutality, revolted by Fenrir, but seeing 
theirs
as the only path, knowing they mean to use him against the people
he loves but still hoping to get control of the situation without
revealing to them what he's become.

wynnleaf
I see Lupin as the eternal fence-sitter.  We readers are shown that 
Lupin grants his friends too much latitude.  What we assume, without 
any real evidence, is that Lupin's only friends were the Marauders and 
in the Order.  Yet Lupin was immediately very friendly to the werewolf 
in St. Mungos during OOTP, and speaks of the werewolves in HBP as his 
equals.  Lupin could easily have friends among the werewolves.  They 
don't have to all be like Fenrir.  

We learn in OOTP, that the MOM restrictions against werewolves that 
Umbridge wrote were originally brought out 2 years previously in the 
time of POA.  Lupin and his kind have been dealing with the kinds of 
restrictions that makes employment very difficult to find and some 
werewolves may need to hunt to eat (HBP Christmas conversation with 
Harry).  In OOTP, Sirius makes it clear that Lupin is very upset by 
these restrictions and at one point Lupin mentioned that similar sorts 
of restrictions on the goblins could turn them to Voldemort's side.

Does this mean Lupin hates everyone on the Order side?  No.  I think 
Lupin cares about both sides, but works to benefit the werewolves (and 
thereby himself).  That could have led him to support LV's agenda, at 
least as it affects the werewolves.

I was very struck by the hospital scene at the end of HBP.  Lupin is a 
very controlled fellow.  He *never* looses his cool.  Even when his 
good friend of many years dies immediately in front of him in OOTP, 
Lupin doesn't loose his cool.  Yet in the hospital wing, his grief is, 
in Harry's opinion, almost "indecent" to witness. Why is this?  Why is 
Lupin so uncharacteristically grief stricken -- *far* beyond his grief 
over Sirius?  And even though he witnessed Sirius' death, but only 
heard about Dumbledore's?  

My guess:  Lupin had been called in by Dumbledore to patrol the castle 
the night Dumbledore would be out.  Dumbledore would have had to 
recall Lupin from his werewolf assignment.  Therefore, Lupin would 
have known ahead of time that Dumbledore would be gone.  When Draco 
got the cabinet working, the DEs were ready to go on their mission 
very, very quickly.  Yet Draco was surprised to see Fenrir there.  How 
did Fenrir hear about it and get there so quickly?  

I think Lupin may have alerted the werewolves and DE's that Dumbledore 
would be gone that night.  Lupin would have expected a raid on the 
castle.  But I don't think he expected, and may not have known, about 
Dumbledore himself being a target.  I think when Lupin collapsed in 
grief it was *guilt* that was moving him, not just sadness at 
Dumbledore's passing.  

However, I don't think we're going to see Lupin revealed as this evil 
horrible person, so much as an oppressed person who ends up betraying 
many of his friends in order to support others of his kind and to try 
to find the path that benefits himself and others like him.  I think 
his will be a very sad story, which has many RL parallels.

Several recent posts have focused on why Lupin might support Voldemort. 

The primary reason I think Lupin is highly likely to be the traitor,
or betray the Order in DH, is because 1. there is almost *certainly*
going to be someone who Harry trusts who turns out to betray him or
the Order -- this happens in *each* book and therefore there is a
rather low likelihood that it won't happen again.  And 2.  Lupin is by
far the most perfectly situated, in a literary perspective, to be that
traitor.

Whoever is going to betray Harry or the Order, JKR has *already* set
the stage for that character to be a traitor.  What do I mean by "set
the stage?"  She has already placed in canon for that character,
whoever it is, motive, opportunity, the believable character traits or
flaws, and the right balance within the themes/plot and so on to make
it work.  Oh, and she's hopefully set it up so that it will *really*
surprise almost all readers.

Lupin is the only major character I know who has been given what could
become a motive -- the previously discussed werewolf angle.  He has
been given a clear opportunity as a spy among the werewolves.  And he
has *already* been established in canon as a character who, given the
right pressures or motivations, betrayed Dumbledore and been willing
to allow Harry and other students to be in danger for his own benefit.

Further, he is the only major character who has a huge gap in time
(the 12 years between the fall of LV and POA), for which we have no
idea what he was doing, and canon has not made any attempt to tell us.

Moreover, his character has done some extremely suspicious things
which can only really be explained as plot-holes or by explanations
that strain credulity.  I particularly mean the repeated "forgetting"
that he was turning into a werewolf in spite of direct reminders by
other characters and his own long discussion about being a werewolf. 
And then his willingness to kill in cold blood (Lupin being quite cool
compared to Sirius at the time) an unarmed, cringing and pleading man
in front of 3 children without that man *ever* having been brought
before authorities.  And then there's the problem of when Lupin
transformed at a time when the moon was already up and simply came out
from a cloud.  When JKR was questioned about this, she wouldn't really
give a straight answer, meaning once again that something occurred
with Lupin (in an otherwise very well-constructed book) that was
either a plot hole or an intentional inexplicable event.  

And then there's the really lovely parallels and juxtapositions that
would occur if Lupin was a traitor and Snape was found to be loyal.

1.  Both characters have their roots in the backstory, which JKR
clearly sees as extremely important.

2.  Harry distrusts Snape, while trusting Lupin.  He would find he had
to trust Snape while his trust in Lupin was misplaced.

3.  Both have been professors.

4.  Both are spies.  Both would have been double (or more) agents. 
One spy is presumed to have betrayed the Order, but is in fact loyal.
 One is presumed to be loyal, but in fact betrays the Order.

5.  Both must make choices.  One chooses to often sit on the fence,
and has already once betrayed Dumbledore and Harry (in POA) and will
ultimately betray the Order, so that he can keep the goodwill of
others. The other is willing to become a complete pariah, losing the
good will of all, in order to do what is right (this is assuming
DDM!Snape).

6.  Both have been considered "Dark."  Lupin is considered "dark"
because he is a werewolf, a dark creature.  Snape is considered dark
because of his longstanding interest in the Dark Arts.  

There's lots more parallels and juxtapositions between the two, making
a story which uses the two characters as lessons for Harry
particularly well balanced.

The reason I think Lupin will be a traitor is because it's just such a
perfect set-up.

Last, but not least, it would shock almost all readers.  An excellent
twist that practically no one would have seen coming.  

wynnleaf