Locket swapped, Regulus dead (Was Re: The Locket Horcrux - When Was It Swapped?)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 165769

Debbie:
> The tapestry is *evidence* that Regulus is dead.  However, it
doesn't clinch it.  Evidence can be unreliable.  Barty Crouch Jr.'s
grave was evidence that he was dead, but it was a lie.
> 
> If we could prove that the tapestry was enchanted like the
Marauder's Map or the Hogwarts quill, that would be proof.  However,
the enchanted tapestry is just a theory.  Theories are perfectly
welcome, of course, and this one is supported by the existence of many
enchanted objects in the Potterverse. But there is no direct evidence;
in addition, the fact that the tapestry didn't regenerate itself when
Mrs. Black blasted people off it may be evidence that it was not
enchanted (or at least that it doesn't tell the whole truth).  We just
don't know.

Carol responds:

I certainly agree that evidence in the HP books can be unreliable and
tha JKR is fond of red herrings. However, if all the evidence points
in one direction and there's no counterevidence, it's probably safe to
conclude that Regulus is probably dead, at least if we assume that
Regulus and RAB are the same person.

Evidence that Regulus is dead:

1) The tapestry provides a date of death. As Goddlefrood noted, this
date must have appeared on the tapestry magically rather than being
put there by Walburga, who certainly didn't put on the dates of birth
and death for people born before she was. The tapestry is 700 years
old. Nor could she have put her own death date on the tapestry, but
it's there, if the copy at the Lexicon is anything near accurate. (I
have some doubts about thirteen-year-old fathers, but that could just
be JKR's bad "maths.")
2) His own brother says that he was murdered, either by Voldemort
himself or more likely by Death Eaters. (Inference: His body was found
with a Drak Mark over it.)
3) Dumbledore refers to Sirius Black as the last of his line.
4) Kreacher has to obey Harry. (Bellatrix doesn't count; he'd obey her
if he could, but she's not in the direct line of Orion and Walburga
Black.) If Regulus, a member of that direct line were alive, I don't
think that Kreacher could magically be compelled to obey Harry.
5) JKR has said straight out that Regulus is dead "He's dead, so he's
pretty quiet these days."
6) RAB states that he'll be dead by the time that the Dark Lord reads
his note. This bit of information fits with what we know about Regulus.
&) JKR has also discounted the Regulus = Stubby Boardman theory.

Counterevidence:
Dumbledore says, in a line excised from all editions except the
American hardback, "They can't kill you if you're already dead). This
line, addressed to Draco, has been taken to mean that the Order is in
the habit of hiding people and faking their deaths. If that
interpretation is correct, a number of candidates seem more likely
than Regulus, given the evidence for his death already cited,
including Ollivander, Florian Fortescue, both of whom have disappeared
without a trace (as did a member of the original Order whose name
escapes me), and Emmeline Vance, whose death could have been faked by
Snape using the Draught of Living Death (why else haave him mention it
in "Spinner's End"?)

Am I missing something? Where else can we find evidence (as opposed to
wishful thinking) that Regulus is not really dead? Harry doesn't need
RAB's help to find the locket Horcrux. He just needs to figure out
that RAB is Regulus and that the locket is the one they saw when they
were cleaning 12 GP. And then, of course, he needs to find it again
(through Kreacher or Mundungus or Aberforth).
 
> Debbie:
> You may have missed my qualifier, in which I conceded that the odds
are not with Regulus, who most likely has long since departed this
mortal coil.
> 
> Debbie noting that the best theories are always supported by canon
evidence, but that they remain theories for lack of proof

Carol:
Agreeing that we should not confuse evidence, however strong, with
proof, or theory with "fact," but believing that the evidence strongly
supports Regulus's being both RAB and dead