Why DD did not ask Snape to kill him. (extremely long)

[sistermagpie]

No: HPFGUIDX 166115


> > Quick_Silver:
> > Actually I meant that James and Sirius underestimated Peter
> > in the sense that they never thought that he'd turn to
> > Voldemort (or be capable of blowing up a street). On the
> > other hand Dumbledore (and maybe, big maybe, Snape)
> > underestimated Draco's ability to bring Death Eaters into
> > the castle (I believe Dumbledore says as much on the Tower).
> 
> Dana:
> 
> To be honest I do not see the parallel at all.
> 
> I even see a big flaw because Draco was ordered to kill LV and
> *if* Snape took the UV to protect DD, and he was planning to
> die, then where does that leave Draco? Because not finishing,
> his task, would get him killed. And LV letting him live is
> still a big question mark.

Magpie:
Snape was not necessarily planning to die. He *would* die if it was 
necessary--any UV involves the person risking their life to a 
certain extent. But the idea in this case is that Snape was planning 
to control Draco and not have to die. If Draco was spirited away by 
DD and thought to be dead, presumably that would have taken care of 
it. So there would be no question of LV killing him. The situation 
on the Tower ruined that plan by putting all of them on the spot.

Dana: 
> Personally I think Snape never took the UV to protect Draco,
> he took it because Bella accused him of being a coward,
> always hiding behind his orders. She calls him on his bluff
> and he, thinking he could control everything, took it.

Magpie:
He is vowing to protect Draco, and he honestly doesn't seem too 
upset by Bellatrix calling him a coward. She's the one who's 
desperate in the situation, it seems to me. He's not bothered by her 
claims that he's slithered out of action. On the contrary, he gets a 
great line about how useless her time in Azkaban was compared to his 
years at Hogwarts. I honestly don't Snape portrayed as at all acting 
defensively against Bellatrix in the scene. How is ESE!Snape 
thinking he can control everything? DDM!Snape is presumably taking a 
very calculated risk and planning, with Dumbledore's help, to get 
Draco and his family into a Wizard Witness Protection Program. I 
don't see how this other Snape plans to control anything. Doesn't he 
have to kill Dumbledore in the end? And if so, why does he wait 
until the Tower to do it? Why not just kill Dumbledore a better way 
and make it look like an accident, especially once Draco starts 
making it dangerous?

Dana:> 
> For me the idea that Snape did everything on DD's orders is
> stretching believability to such an extent that it makes it
> highly improbable because it makes assumptions that DD knew
> that Narcissa would come to Snape for help. Or that without
> the UV Draco could not be saved or that the only way to save
> Draco was by taking the UV. Or even that the only way to
> save Draco would be for either Snape or DD to die.

Magpie:
That's one of the many mysteries of the Vow scene, yes. I've never 
thought that Dumbledore could have known that Narcissa would come to 
Snape. I've always assumed most theories that Dumbledore and Snape 
are working together only assume that Dumbledore knew about the Vow 
after the fact and that Dumbledore was okay with Snape's decision to 
take the Vow, which is the type of thing he hints at to Harry when 
Harry brings up the question. I don't see the UV as being the only 
way to save Draco either--but then, neither was Peter as the Secret 
Keeper the only way to save James. The point is just that Snape 
decided to take the Vow and that he and Dumbledore were also trying 
to protect and neutralize Draco.

Dana:
> 
> Better yet I believe that it was Snape who provided the
> information for LV to decide to go after DD and this is why;
> 
> Pg 36 UK ed. paperback:
> 
> 'I am pleased to say, however, that Dumbledore is growing old.
> The duel with the Dark Lord shook him. He since sustained a
> serious injury because his reactions are slower then they once
> were.'
> 
> End quote from canon.
> 
> This is information that you never ever tell to your enemy
> because it puts holes in your defence system. And if he is
> DDM then Bella is the enemy and although she was not the one
> who told LV, as the order for Draco already stood at that time,
> I am pretty sure LV knows this information as well.

Magpie:
It's not putting holes in your defense system if you're trying to 
draw the enemy to attack in a way for which you're prepared. 
Dumbledore himself isn't trying to hide his damaged hand. I would 
think that making the enemy think Dumbledore is weaker than he is 
would be an advantage. Dumbledore is not "shaken" by his duel with 
Voldemort, and his injury possibly did not come at all from slow 
reflexes. Snape throughout the scene, to me, reads as someone 
encouraging the DEs in their completely wrong, dismissive view of 
Dumbledore because it's better if they don't take him as seriously 
as they could. 

Dana: 
> Although we have no canon that Snape told LV, him telling
> Bella indicates (to me) he did because it would be information
> LV could use. And maybe why he chose Draco for the task or why
> he suddenly changed his focus to DD. 

Magpie:
Canonically, he chose Draco for the task to get Draco killed and 
punish Lucius. LV's plan never hinged on DD being weak or not. Had 
Draco confronted DD when he hadn't just drunk a lot of poison, he 
probably wouldn't have been in danger.

Dana:
Maybe he didn't change it
> at all but figured DD was the only one standing between him
> and the one who made the prophecy - Trelawney - and with DD at
> his weakest, he finally had a chance to eliminate him. DD has a
> way of knowing things or realizing that he might indeed be next,
> especially because he knows the prophecy is the most important
> thing to LV in his quest to eliminate Harry and at this moment
> Harry knowing it in full is his advantage over LV. And I am to
> believe that DD chose to die and risk losing this advantage?

Magpie:
LV is *not* targetting DD in HBP. He's targetting Draco. He doesn't 
expect Dumbledore to die. He may indeed one day want Snape to kill 
Dumbledore, as Snape seems to imply in Spinner's End, but his plan 
for sixth year probably isn't based on information that Dumbledore 
is weak because it assumes that Dumbledore is strong--certainly 
strong enough to easily take care of a would-be assassin like Draco.

Dana:
> 
> The big problem in all of your theories, that Snape will be
> able to help Harry from LV's side, is that Snape will not and
> never be able to change LV's plans.

Magpie:
I don't think it's necessarily a problem with the theory. It's an 
unknown. We just don't know what Snape and Dumbledore might hope to 
do after this. There would be no surprise to what happened next if 
we could really strategize this well for the good side. There's 
plenty of ways Snape could be used to help Harry from his current 
position if you use your imagination. Anyone loyal to DD in LV's 
camp could be helpful. (Aren't we waiting for something along those 
lines from Peter?)

Dana:
> 
> Snape keeps telling Bella and Narcissa even he can't change the
> Dark Lord's mind which means that whatever LV is planning to do
> next after DD is gone, Snape will not be able to influence it.
> This means if LV goes after Trelawney next, then there will be
> no one to stop him from doing so. So now we are to believe that
> everything that happened in OotP just a few weeks before is now
> meaningless because Snape has to save the day and be the
> key to Harry's victory. And DD protecting her by given her a
> job and keeping her in the castle for 16 years is no longer
> important and neither is Harry's safety if LV gets hold of the
> entire prophecy.

Magpie:
Actually, I don't see why getting a hold of the entire prophecy 
would insure victory for Voldemort. I still don't see why Snape must 
be so useless and all these things must suddenly happen because of 
the events of HBP. Dumbledore is clearly preparing for his death 
throughout HBP, so hopefully he didn't think everything would fall 
apart after he was gone. Snape's possibly being helpful from the 
position he's in now doesn't have to depend on his being able to 
change LV's mind about something or passing information to the 
Order. 

When, after all, have the books ever really turned on that sort of 
thing? We know that Lupin is spying for the werewolves but so far 
it's more just something he's been given to do that sounds useful 
and dangerous--same thing with Snape. The only time information from 
him seemed to be important was possibly with Draco in HBP.

Dana: 
> You all make assumptions that DD considers Snape the key to
> Harry's victory while he isn't even able to help prevent the
> kid from being lured to the DoM (with or without alerting the
> Order), you make assumptions that Snape knows about the
> Horcruxes and DD gave him the task to find them or provide the
> necessary information for Harry, while Harry is trained the
> entire year to be able to locate them. And the inconvenience
> of not being able to give the information to anyone is not a
> problem?
> 
> No, right, of course DD told someone of the plan and he will
> make Harry believe Snape. If Snape is so important to the
> Order then why does no one know why DD trusted Snape? Don't
> you think this would be important for this plan to work? Is
> that really so dangerous to his cover that besides DD someone
> else knows why Snape CAN be trusted. 

Magpie:
Here I agree. I am making no assumptions about exactly what Snape's 
role in the victory is supposed to be according to Dumbledore or 
anyone else. But that's also why I don't think DDM!Snape is 
discounted just because Snape can no longer spy on LV and bring back 
information to the Order, or work with Harry the way he has before. 
I still believe that Snape could potentially have reasons for what 
he did on the Tower, and that Dumbledore wanted him to do it, and 
that it ties into bringing LV down. Snape can be important without 
being the one to help Harry destroy Horcruxes or work with him in 
that way. 

Personally, I don't tend to be drawn to theories about how Harry 
will be working with Snape in HBP, because they seem to go against 
my own instincts that say that Harry's confrontation with Snape 
ought to be a climax. Having Snape quickly reveal himself to be 
working with the Order early on in the book seems to undo the 
situation JKR set up in HBP where Harry absolutely hates him and 
refuses to work with him because Snape's a murderer--of Dumbledore, 
no less. That's also why it seems backwards to me to think Snape is 
going to cause Harry to consider working with Draco. Draco is the 
little bad, the one Harry's already hating a bit less and has reason 
to think differently about--it makes far more sense to me for Harry 
to work up to more important Snape through Draco than vice versa. 
That would be anti-climactic, imo.

Dana:
Oh, of course, again there
> will be someone else who knows and although a lying DD according
> to you is not necessary, we have to believe he lied to Harry
> about Snape being sorry he relayed the prophecy to LV and DD
> believing it WAS the REASON for his return.

Magpie:
I think the important information here isn't the reason for his 
return but the reason that Dumbledore trusted him completely. Also, 
I believe that Dumbledore says he *believes* that Snape's remorse 
was the reason for his return...and is cut off after that. Never 
assume in HP you know exactly what somebody is going to say. 
Dumbledore could actually be saying that Snape's remorse was great 
and he believes that's the reason he returned to LV as a spy, for 
all we know.

Regardless, it's clearly separated from the real question, which is 
why Dumbledore trusts him. First he's trying to impress on Harry how 
badly Snape regretted passing on the Prophecy. He *believes* it's 
his greatest regret. But when Harry asks him how he can be sure he 
can trust him Dumbledore goes silent and does not tell him. This 
more important piece of information is one he's concealing--unlike 
his opinions about Snape's remorse. The reason for his return to the 
good side is not as important as why Dumbledore trusts that he truly 
has returned. Harry mixes them up together later, coming up with the 
same story Snape tells Bellatrix. It's a story that rests on 
Dumbledore being too ready to believe the good in people, something 
I don't think is true about him based on what I've seen.

Dana:> 
> Snape had worked  as a teacher for 14 years by Harry's fifth
> year making Harry about 1 year old when Snape started his job.
> GH happens when Harry is 1 year and 3 months. Although this
> can be read both ways, as an ESE, or as a Snape who truly
> defected to the other side. I do not for one minute believe
> that DD would lie to Harry. There might be more to it and he
> might have other reasons DD didn't mention but a lying DD to
> make a more plausible Snape as DDM is not plausible in my book
> and neither is putting others at risk by making Snape take a UV
> and ordering him to kill DD.

Magpie:
DD doesn't have to lie. He gives an opinion and then doesn't give an 
answer. He said something which Harry turned into more of an answer 
than it was. There is, it seems, more to it.

But I think Quick_Silver's parallel, if Snape is DDM, is still very 
strong. Snape is taking the danger on himself, yet Dumbledore ends 
up dying. Everyone depends on Peter being incompetent and he 
surprises them, just as Draco does. Snape winds up the murderer, 
just as Sirius did (although in Sirius' case he was innocent). It's 
a very similar set up with a deceptive plan resting on a lot of 
manipulation that wound up completely blowing up in everyone's faces 
due to underestimating a central figure chosen specifically because 
it was thought he couldn't be underestimated.

-m