[HPforGrownups] Fawkes possible absence (was: Magical animals in canon/ Fawkes and Snape)

[Magpie]

No: HPFGUIDX 166287

> Dana:
> I never argued that DD would not consider it a possibility he could
> die that night, just that he did not *plan* on it or to *have* Snape
> do it. I think there is a difference.
>
> Maybe I should have clarified this more specifically. I think LV never 
> changed his mind about getting the prophecy but I initially thought he 
> would make a second run for Hogwarts to get to her.  But then Jen's 
> possible plan made me think she might be right that Draco's murder attempt 
> was a distraction to get to the real prize (or one of them): Trelawney. 
> And I am wondering if DD realised this the moment Harry mentioned seeing 
> her at the RoR. That it wasn't about him but about her.

Magpie:
But I think there's a difference between something being possible and there 
being a strong reason to believe it. Dumbledore could just as easily have 
decided Draco's plot was really about getting Harry or Hermione--there's as 
much evidence that I can recall.

The scene surrounding Dumbledore's murder, by contrast, has been set up 
since the beginning and involves everyone in the scene. The DEs are all 
there. None of them shows any sign of being there for any other reason than 
to "help" Draco (or watch him) kill Dumbledore. Dumbledore's last moments 
are almost all devoted to Draco and his understanding of murder. Snape tells 
them "it's over" once Dumbledore is dead. Dumbledore's death is the huge 
shock, coming right out of that second chapter. And iirc, Dumbledore never 
stopped treating Trelawney as someone he just had to be patient with but 
couldn't get rid of. (The irony being that Trelawney seemed to be predicted 
Dumbledore's own doom throughout the year, only he didn't want to see her.)

You seem to be suggesting--unless I'm misunderstanding--that Dumbledore gets 
something from the fact that Trelawney is near the RoR, but we know she was 
only there hiding her empty bottles. She discovered Draco because he was 
also using the hiding version of the room and he threw her out--he had no 
reason for her there. There's nothing I recall from DD's reaction that 
suggests he's just put something together about Trelawney, and nothing I can 
see about the scenes that indicate anyone thinks she's significant that way. 
Even Harry's more interested in what she says about Snape.

If Dumbledore had just realized something like this and started taking steps 
we'd have to, imo, see those beats in what's actually written even if for 
some reason we weren't told about it until DH.

-m